Broncos, Week 3 — What Repeats: Least Catchable in the League

Denver won on Sunday night with the least catchable passing in the league. 18 of Bo Nix's 34 throws were charted catchable, 53 percent, 30-second of the 32 offenses this week. Across last season he was at 71. In Week 1 it was 68 percent, 20-first; in Week 2, 74, tied for eleventh. This was not a first-half problem that a comeback fixed: seven of 12 throws were catchable before halftime, 11 of 22 after. Both halves sat under 60. The comeback came from a different place than the charting.

The number that has moved the same direction three weeks running is the interception-worthy count, balls a defender should have caught. Four of 34 on Sunday, 12 percent, third-highest in the league this week. It was 3.6 percent in Kansas City, about six against Jacksonville, 12 against the Rams. Last season it was 3.4. Two of the four came in each half. The Rams caught one, at 16 all in the fourth quarter. Six of the 34 throws were contested, 18 percent, tied with Arizona for tenth, against his 11 percent from last season, and he threw three away. Nine of his 35 dropbacks left the pocket, 26 percent, fifth-highest this week, and none of them a scramble. Last season he was out of the pocket on 26 percent, and 29 of those were scrambles. Same rate, different kind of play.

The fakes gave him nothing. Nine play-action throws went three for nine yards. The other 25 passes, two-point tries aside, went 14 for a hundred 77. Play-action itself sat at nine of 35 dropbacks, 26 percent, tied with Washington for fourteenth, close to last season's 24. The motion, which last week's episode filed as the reversal to watch, kept going: 44 of 82 charted plays, 54 percent, eighth of the 32 this week, after 30-first in Week 1 and twelfth in Week 2, against 37 percent across last season. And the run-pass option showed up: four, after one against Jacksonville and two in Kansas City.

Now the notebook line from last week, and it broke. Two defenses in a row had sent five or more rushers at Nix well above last season's rate: 30 percent in Kansas City, 42 percent from Jacksonville. The Rams sent five or more on eight of 35 dropbacks, 23 percent, 20-first of the 32 this week and about where last season's opponents were, at 20. One sack, not charted as the quarterback's fault. So that notebook line is closed, and it makes the throws harder to explain: a four-man rush most of the night and the lowest catchable rate in the league.

The run game got light boxes and did nothing with them. Los Angeles showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 14 of Denver's 25 designed runs, 56 percent, ninth-highest of the 32 this week and right at last season's 57. Those 25 runs gained 78 yards, 3.1 per designed run, 20-second in the league, against a little over four per run last season. The 14 runs into a light box gained 39 yards, under three apiece. The 11 runs into a loaded box gained 39 as well. The box did not decide it.

The defense sent the rush it had sent in Week 1. Five or more on 24 of Matthew Stafford's 58 dropbacks, 41 percent, seventh-highest of the 32 defenses this week. It was about 45 in Kansas City, 23 against Jacksonville, 32 across last season. Four sacks, none charted as Stafford's fault. And the throws it faced: 34 of 53 catchable, 64 percent, tied with Atlanta for 20-third of the 32 defenses this week, against 66 percent for this defense's opponents last season. 13 of the 53 were contested, 25 percent, seventh-highest share a defense produced this week, against 16 last season. Three were interception-worthy, six percent, seventh, and Denver caught two. Both interceptions and all three interception-worthy throws came after halftime, on 22 Rams throws, and only 12 of those 22 were catchable. Before halftime, 22 of 31 were.

Against the run, the heavy box came back and the yards came with it. Denver showed a light box on six of the Rams' 22 designed runs, 27 percent, 20-eighth of the 32, after 39 percent in Week 1 and 46 in Week 2. Last season it was 66. The 22 runs gained a hundred six yards, 4.8 per designed run, the eighth-most any defense allowed this week, and the 16 runs into a loaded box gained 74 of those. Three weeks in, this defense has shown a heavier box than 2025's every week and has allowed more than four and a half yards per designed run in two of them.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Nix: 17 of 34 for a hundred 86, two touchdowns and an interception, +4 carries for seven yards and the rushing touchdown, 24.1. Pat Bryant caught both his targets for 44 and a touchdown, 13.4. RJ Harvey caught six of seven for 41, 7.7. Nate Adkins, one catch for eight yards and a score. Courtland Sutton, three of seven for 46. J.K. Dobbins, 17 carries for 49. Jaylen Waddle, two catches on seven targets for 10 yards, plus a 14-yard run. For the Rams, Stafford went 30 of 55 for 390, two touchdowns and two interceptions, 20.9. Davante Adams caught seven of 13 for a hundred 37, and Kyren Williams had 88 rushing and 70 receiving.

One line on the yardstick. This is the last week the comparison is to last season, a different roster in places and a year older everywhere. From here on, Denver gets measured against Denver's own season.

For anyone new: last season the Broncos went 14 three. This season they lost in Kansas City 31 to 10 on a Monday night, beat Jacksonville 20 to 13, and beat the Rams 30 to 26 on Sunday night at home. Two and one. Last week's notebook had three lines. Opponents sending five or more at Nix: broke, down to 23 percent of dropbacks. Heavier boxes from this defense against the run: held, and this time it cost 4.8 a designed run. Motion back past last season's rate: held, and rose to eighth. The new line is the arm. Three weeks of interception-worthy rates going up, and a catchable rate that went from tied for eleventh to last in the league in one week. Next is the 49ers in San Francisco.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._