Broncos 23, Chargers 17 — Week 5: Zach Allen's Strip Broke the Tie

Denver beat the Chargers 23-17 in Los Angeles on Sunday to go to 3-2, and the defense won it. The offense converted 1 of 12 third downs and finished with negative expected points added (EPA) through the air and on the ground; EPA is what a snap is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. The defense sacked Justin Herbert five times and took the ball away three times, a turnover margin of +2. Denver trailed 17-10 early in the fourth and won it on a touchdown and two field goals.

The passing game struggled, and its success rate shows it: only 25% of 28 pass plays gained what the situation asked for. They were worth -6.5 EPA, -0.23 a play against -0.03 through Week 4. Bo Nix completed 16 of 27 for 123 yards and a touchdown. The best throw came right after the defense took the ball away on the Chargers' first possession: second and 9 at the Chargers' 39, scoreless in the first, Nix went deep left to Evan Engram for 34 yards to the 5. That was +3.1 EPA and 10 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, and J.K. Dobbins scored two snaps later. Engram caught all 4 of his targets for 55 yards.

The charting says Nix took care of the ball and not much else. None of his 27 throws was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 7 through Week 4. Only 16 were catchable, 59.3%, against his own 65.2%, and he threw 5 away, after 10 in the first four weeks. Five were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 18.5% against 9.6%. The Chargers sent five or more on 9 of 29 dropbacks, 31%, against the 35% Denver saw through Week 4, and sacked him once.

The run game moved the chains more often than the passing game and lost the ball once. Of 29 rush plays, 41.4% were successful, but they were worth -9.0 EPA, -0.31 a play against -0.03 through Week 4, for 106 yards. Most of that came on one snap: tied 10-10 with 1:15 left in the third, Nix scrambled up the middle and Tuli Tuipulotu forced and recovered the fumble at the Denver 42, -5.7 EPA. Kimani Vidal scored from 42 yards on the next snap. The Chargers showed six or fewer in the box on 18 of 28 designed runs, 64.3%, against 51.8% through Week 4, and those runs gained 105 yards. Dobbins ran 18 times for 68 and a touchdown. Nix converted a fourth and 1 at the Denver 44 in the second quarter, upheld on a Chargers challenge, +2.0 EPA, and the drive ended in a 34-yard Wil Lutz field goal.

The pass defense was Smashed, and EPA per play says by how much: the Chargers' 28 pass plays were worth -16.0 EPA, -0.57 a play, against +0.00 allowed through Week 4. On defense a big negative is good. Only 32.1% of those plays were successful. Denver got five sacks while sending five or more on 9 of 31 dropbacks, 29%, fewer than its 39.4% through Week 4: Nik Bonitto had two, and Zach Allen, D.J. Jones and Ja'Quan McMillian one each. Allen's decided the game. Tied 17-17 with 8:06 left, second and 10 at the Chargers' 32, he sacked Herbert at the 24 and forced the fumble, and Que Robinson recovered at the 23. That was -5.8 EPA for the Chargers and 20.6 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Brandon Jones recovered the first-quarter fumble that set up the opening touchdown and intercepted Herbert on fourth and 6 with 3:26 left.

The run defense flipped its first four weeks, and success rate tells it: 23.5% of the Chargers' 34 rush plays were successful. They were worth -8.7 EPA, -0.25 a play, against +0.14 allowed through Week 4; here negative is the good direction. Denver played heavier, with six or fewer in the box on 10 of 31 designed runs, 32.3%, against 42.5% through Week 4, and the 31 runs gained 125 yards. Omarion Hampton ran 14 times for 33. Two plays leaked: Herbert's 23-yard run on third and 7 that set up a touchdown, and Vidal's 42-yarder. The stop that mattered came from Robinson: up 17-10, fourth and 1 at the Chargers' 41 with 10:33 left, he stopped Herbert at right guard for no gain, -3.9 EPA.

The game turned in the fourth quarter. Lutz had missed a 42-yarder wide left at 12:08. After Robinson's stop, Nix found Courtland Sutton for a 5-yard touchdown on second and goal at 8:56 to tie it, +1.6 EPA and 11.4 points of win probability. Allen's strip came on the second snap after the kickoff; Dobbins ran 14 yards to the 9, the drive stalled at the 1 and Lutz kicked a 19-yarder. After Jones' interception Dobbins ran for 13 and then for the clock, and Lutz's 36-yarder made it 23-17 with 1:12 left. 13 drives produced two touchdowns, three field goals and four three-and-outs.

The scheme added movement and options. Pre-snap motion came on 42 of 81 charted plays, 51.9%, against 44.1% through Week 4. Run-pass options rose to 6, 10.5% of snaps, from 6.2%, and there was no no-huddle, after 7.1%. Play-action held steady at 6 of 29 dropbacks, 20.7%, and Nix completed 2 of 5 of those throws for 9 yards. He left the pocket 8 times on 29 dropbacks, after 38 on 143.

Last week's question was the box: whether Denver would keep showing the lighter front against the run, and whether the yards would stay down. It went the other way and the yards stayed down: light boxes on 32.3% of designed runs, against 42.5% through Week 4, and 125 yards on 31 of them. The one to watch next: whether the pass rush keeps getting home without the extra rushers, and whether the offense can convert more than 1 of 12 on third down.

That's your Broncos, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Broncos on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._