Broncos 30, Cardinals 16 — Week 7: Nix Runs 62, Harvey Takes 52

Denver won 30-16 at Arizona on Sunday to go 5-2, and a handful of long plays carried an offense that was otherwise held in check. It was 6-6 until Bo Nix ran 62 yards for a touchdown with 3:57 left in the half. RJ Harvey's 52-yard touchdown and J.K. Dobbins's 1-yard run with 2 seconds left in the third made it 27-13, and Wil Lutz kicked three field goals, from 48, 43 and 31. 11 drives produced three touchdowns, three field goals and two three-and-outs. Neither side turned the ball over.

The passing game found the big play, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows how much it mattered: 30 pass plays worth +4.5 EPA, +0.15 a play against -0.09 through Week 6. Only 30% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, so the value came in bursts. Nix completed 15 of 29 for 222 yards and a touchdown without an interception, his most yards since Week 2, and was sacked once. Three of his 9 deep throws were caught, for 94 yards. Without the three biggest gains, the other 27 pass plays came to -5.8 EPA. The best came up 13-6 early in the third: first and 10 at the Denver 48, Nix threw short left to Harvey 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and Harvey ran 60 yards after the catch for the touchdown, +4.49 EPA and 10.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Marvin Mims Jr.'s 47-yard catch deep right with 47 seconds left in the third set up Dobbins's score, and Jaylen Waddle's 27-yarder on second and 15 carried the drive that ended in Lutz's 31-yarder.

The run game's numbers belong mostly to the quarterback, and success rate opens the case: 45.8% of 24 rush plays succeeded, for 161 yards. They were worth +6.4 EPA, +0.27 a play against -0.09 through Week 6. Most of the value was Nix's two scrambles, 70 yards and +6.7 EPA; the 22 designed runs gained 91 yards and came to -0.3. Jonah Coleman ran 9 times for 54, with gains of 12 and 15. Dobbins ran 6 times for 23, and his touchdown was upheld on review.

The pass defense held Arizona below its own standard, and total EPA allowed opens it: the Cardinals' 51 pass plays were worth -7.8, -0.15 a play against -0.10 allowed through Week 6. On defense a negative number is good. Jacoby Brissett completed 27 of 48 for 272 yards and a touchdown, 1 of 6 deep, and was sacked three times. His 18 first-half dropbacks were worth -7.5 EPA. Malcolm Roach's sack on third and 4 with 37 seconds left in the half cost Arizona 6.4 points of win probability. The leak was Trey McBride, 10 catches on 13 targets for 111 yards and the 7-yard touchdown.

The run defense also beat its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Arizona's 24 rush plays came to -0.7 EPA, -0.03 a play against +0.04 allowed through Week 6; here, too, negative is good. Tyler Allgeier ran 8 times for 19, and Roach stopped him for no gain on second and goal at the 8. Alex Singleton stopped Brissett for no gain on third and 1 at the Denver 20, a spot Arizona challenged and lost. The miss was Bam Knight's 29-yard run late in the first quarter, which Brandon Jones's lowering-the-head penalty carried to the 8.

The game turned with 3:57 left in the half. Tied 6-6, second and 7 at the Denver 38, Nix scrambled up the middle and ran 62 yards for the touchdown: +5.48 EPA and 20.3 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Arizona went three-and-out, and after halftime its opening drive stalled at the Denver 45 and ended in a 7-yard punt. Three plays later Harvey scored.

The defense closed it at the goal line. Down 30-16 with 2:09 left, Arizona had first and goal at the 1 after Jalen Brooks's 35-yard catch. Two pass-interference flags on Jahdae Barron gave it fresh downs, then Brissett was stopped on a run up the middle, Singleton sacked him at the 5, and the last two throws fell incomplete, the final one on fourth and 5. Arizona's 20 snaps inside the Denver 20 produced one touchdown and -10.7 EPA. The defense stopped 12 of Arizona's 17 third downs; the offense converted 3 of 11.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game that found 107 yards could stretch the field, and whether the takeaways would keep covering for it. The first got its answer: 222 yards and four completions of 20 or more. The second never came up: no takeaways, and none given away. The one to watch next: whether a passing game whose value came on four throws, with 30% of its pass plays successful, starts winning the snaps in between, and whether an offense that converted 3 of 11 third downs keeps finding the long gain to make up for it.

That's your Broncos, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Broncos on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._