Lions 45, Cardinals 21 — Week 5: Four for Four on Fourth Down

Detroit beat Arizona 45-21 on the road, and it won the game on fourth down. The Lions converted 4 of 13 third downs and then went 4 for 4 on the down after, three of them for touchdowns. 11 drives produced six touchdowns, a field goal and no turnovers. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and two scores, and Jared Goff threw three touchdowns on 30 attempts.

The passing game was Smashed by expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. Its 33 pass plays came to +16.4 EPA, +0.50 a play against +0.26 through Week 4, with 45.5% of them successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Goff went 19 of 30 for 271 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Jameson Williams caught 2 of 4 targets for 47 yards, and both catches were touchdowns. The second put it away: up 24-7 with 9:50 left in the third, third and 10 at the Arizona 39, Goff threw deep right to Williams for 39 yards and the score, +5.1 EPA. Sam LaPorta caught all 5 of his targets for 88 yards and a touchdown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 6 of 11 for 69.

The charting shows a play fake doing the work. Goff used play-action on 13 of 33 dropbacks, 39.4%, against 30.5% through Week 4, and went 8 of 12 for 123 yards off it. His throws were catchable on 19 of 30, 63.3%, after 73.9%, with no drops and none marked interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. Arizona sent five or more pass rushers on 11 of 33 dropbacks, 33.3%, close to the 32.8% this offense saw through Week 4, and sacked him three times. Screens rose to 5, 15.2% of dropbacks, from 4%.

The run game was a smash too, and its success rate says so: 50% of 32 rush plays, worth +4.8 EPA. Per play that is +0.15, against -0.06 through Week 4. The 32 designed runs gained 163 yards, after 393 on 91 across the first four weeks. Arizona showed six or fewer in the box on 14 of them, 43.8%, heavier than the 50.5% Detroit saw through Week 4. Gibbs set up the first touchdown with a 16-yard run off right tackle to the Arizona 4 and scored from the 1 two snaps later. In the third, up 31-14, he ran 22 yards around right end to the 2. Arizona held him to 1 yard and then no gain, and Goff sneaked in on fourth and 1.

The pass defense had its better week, though Arizona still threw for three touchdowns. Arizona's 52 pass plays were worth +5.4 EPA, +0.10 a play against +0.26 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction, so this was well under this unit's own rate. Detroit sacked Jacoby Brissett five times. D.J. Wonnum had two, and Aidan Hutchinson and Malcolm Rodriguez split the one that ended Arizona's drive on fourth and 1 at the Detroit 19 in the fourth, a snap worth -4.3 EPA to Arizona. Keith Abney II intercepted a deep throw on third and 19 as the first half ended. Detroit sent five or more on 13 of 53 dropbacks, 24.5%, against 30.7% through Week 4. Brissett's throws were contested on 29.8% of attempts, against the 20.1% this defense allowed before Sunday. Two of his three touchdowns came down 31-7 and 45-14.

The run defense opens on its success rate: 27.8% of Arizona's 18 rush plays were successful, worth -3.9 EPA; on defense, a negative number is the good direction. Per play that is -0.21, against +0.07 allowed through Week 4. Detroit showed six or fewer in the box on 4 of 17 designed runs, 23.5%, against 28% through Week 4, and those runs gained 38 yards. Jeremiyah Love had 22 on 12 carries.

The game turned at 9:38 of the second quarter. Tied 7-7, at the Arizona 49, Sione Vaki lost 2 yards on second and 10. On third and 12 Goff hit LaPorta for 11, a yard short; Detroit challenged the spot and lost it. On fourth and 1 at the 38, Goff threw short right to LaPorta and he ran the rest of the way. That snap was worth +5.6 EPA and 17.2 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The fourth-down habit had started a drive earlier: on fourth and 3 at the Arizona 47, LaPorta's 12-yard catch drew 15 more on an unnecessary roughness penalty, and Gibbs scored three snaps later. After the LaPorta touchdown, Arizona went three-and-out and Detroit scored again on fourth and 4 at the 8, Goff to Williams, for 21-7.

The scheme stayed close to its first four weeks everywhere but the play fake and the screens. Motion came on 41.5% of charted plays, against 39.9%. There was one run-pass option, after 6 in the first four weeks. Goff left the pocket twice on 33 dropbacks, after 20 times on 174.

Last week's notebook said the pass defense was still waiting on its good week. It got closer: +0.10 a play allowed, five sacks and an interception, against +0.26 through Week 4. The light boxes that came with short runs in Week 4 were fewer this week, and the runs got longer. The one to watch next: whether the pass defense holds a rate near this one against an offense that is not chasing four scores, and whether play-action stays near 40% of Goff's dropbacks.

That's your Lions, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Lions on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._