Jaguars 13, Broncos 20 — Week 2: Up Ten, Then Nothing

First and goal at the Denver three, 10 30 left in the third quarter, Jacksonville up 10 to three. The Jaguars had opened the half with a 16-yard Bhayshul Tuten run, an 18-yard throw to Parker Washington, an 11-yard Tuten run, and, two short runs later, a third and four that Tuten took around right end for nine. A three-yard completion and an unnecessary roughness flag on Alex Singleton put the ball at the three. At that snap the win probability model gave Jacksonville an 85 percent chance, its high point of the day. Chris Rodriguez lost two. A throw to Tuten went for no gain. Third and goal from the five fell incomplete over the middle, and Cam Little kicked a 23-yard field goal. 13 to three. Jacksonville did not score again, and lost 20 to 13 in Denver. The unit that went quiet is the one that was the best in football seven days ago.

So start with the passing game. Last week against Cleveland it produced +19 expected points added on 24 pass plays, the best per-play rate of all 32 teams in Week 1, with four touchdown passes. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth. On Sunday, 31 pass plays were worth −4.1: 20-second of the 28 teams that have played this week, no touchdowns, one interception, two sacks. At the rate this offense passed last season, when it ranked eleventh, those same 31 plays would have been worth about +2. The half split is the story. 19 first-half pass plays came out at +0.4. The 12 after halftime were worth about −4 and a half. The first half had real moments: second and 18 from the Denver 33 in a scoreless game, Trevor Lawrence deep middle to Washington for 32, down to the one, and on the next snap Tuten took a direct snap around right end for the touchdown with tackle Wyatt Milum reported as eligible. And the drive before the half began at first and 20 from the Jacksonville 10 with two minutes left, after an illegal block, and Lawrence completed six straight throws to set up Little from 44 with three seconds on the clock. 10 to three at the break. The damage was on long yardage. On third downs needing seven or more, Jacksonville converted one of six. The costliest sack came on second and seven at the Denver 47 in the first quarter, still scoreless: Que Robinson dropped Lawrence for −11, seven points of win probability gone, third and 18, punt.

Then the last three drives, which is where the game went. After the field goal made it 13 to three, Jacksonville had three more possessions: 16 plays, 54 yards, no points. The first ended on third and six at midfield with a minute 40 left in the third, up 13 to six. Lawrence threw deep left for Washington and Riley Moss intercepted it at the Denver 33. −8 points of win probability, and Denver drove 64 yards to tie it. The second had Jacksonville's biggest play of the day: third and eight from its own 34, tied at 13, 11 11 left, Lawrence deep left to Jakobi Meyers for 28 to the Denver 38. +16 points of win probability. Then an incompletion, a two-yard run, a timeout, another incompletion on third and eight, and Little's 54-yard try went wide left. −8 again. On Denver's fifth snap after that miss, Travis Hunter was flagged for a 22-yard pass interference penalty, an unsportsmanlike conduct flag was added on, and Denver had first and goal at the three. It scored on the next play. The third possession, down seven, reached the Jacksonville 35 and ended with two incompletions and a punt with four 46 left. The offense never saw the ball again.

The pass defense is the other contradiction. 288 passing yards allowed; of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, only Buffalo and Cincinnati allowed more. Denver's 31 pass plays were worth +8.4 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Twentieth so far this week. Last season this was the third-best pass defense in the league, and at that rate the same 31 plays would have been worth about −4.4. Last week it ranked fifth and sacked Cleveland five times. On Sunday it did not record a sack. Five Denver completions went for 20 yards or more, and the last was the one that closed the game: third and three at the Denver 27, three 41 left, down seven, a stop gets the ball back. Bo Nix went deep right to Jaylen Waddle for 29. 15 Denver pass plays after halftime were worth +8.8.

What held was the goal line. After Waddle's 49-yard catch put Denver at the one in the second quarter, the defense stopped J.K. Dobbins three straight times, no gain, no gain, −1, and Denver kicked from 20. On Denver's next trip, third and goal from the eight with two 15 left in the half and Jacksonville up seven to three, Jourdan Lewis intercepted Nix in the end zone. 15 points of win probability, the second-largest swing in Jacksonville's favor all day. Denver's first six red-zone snaps produced three points. On third down the defense got six stops in 10 tries, middle of the pack among the 28 teams so far this week, after leading the league at seven of eight a week ago.

The run game was steady in both directions. 46 percent of Jacksonville's 24 rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, sixth of the 28 teams so far this week, and the +1.5 expected points ranked seventh. It was short-yardage work more than big plays: 17 of the 24 gained three yards or fewer, the only two runs of 10 or more came on that opening drive of the third quarter, and on third and one or two Jacksonville was three for three, all runs. 95 yards in all. Against the run, Denver's 25 plays gained a hundred seven yards and were worth −1.5, twentieth so far this week, with 75 of the yards after halftime and two 12-yard Jonah Coleman runs on the drive that ran out the clock.

Now the thread, from the top for anyone new. Last season Jacksonville went 13 four with the league's third-ranked pass defense and eleventh-ranked passing offense by expected points per play. In Week 1 it beat Cleveland 34 to 10, and the figures said both units were at least that good: first in the league passing, fifth defending the pass, first on third-down defense. Week 2 said the opposite on both: 20-second and twentieth of the 28 teams that have played. Two pieces of context, both honest. That Cleveland pass defense Jacksonville took apart ranks third so far this week, so last week was not only the opponent. And Denver's pass defense was sixth last season, at a rate that would make 31 pass plays worth about −3.6; Jacksonville got −4.1, which is roughly what that defense did to most offenses. Two games do not settle which passing game this is. They do say the ceiling and the floor are a long way apart.

Jacksonville hosts New England next Sunday afternoon. The Patriots' pass defense ranks second so far this week by expected points per play, so watch third and long first, and watch whether the pass rush that had five sacks in Week 1 shows up again.

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_Data via nflverse._