Jaguars, Week 2 — What Repeats: Play-Action Fell to Four Fakes

Last week this show led on Jacksonville's play-action rate, the highest in the league. Seven days later it was close to the lowest. The Jaguars faked a handoff on four of their 31 dropbacks in Denver, 13 percent, tied with Arizona for thirtieth of the 32 offenses this week. Only Green Bay used it less, and the league median was 24 and a half. Against Cleveland it was 10 of 24, 42 percent, first in the league. Across last season, 22 percent, so this was not a return to normal but a miss on the other side. Trevor Lawrence's four play-action throws went three for 29 yards; his other 25 went 14 for a hundred and 60. The screens went with it: one screen on 31 dropbacks, three percent, tied with Arizona for 20-seventh, after four of 24 last week and eight percent across last season. Motion went the other way: 41 of 74 charted plays, 55 percent, eighth-highest of the 32, against 20-seventh last week and 48 percent last season.

Now where the ball went, which is the number from this game to hold onto. 11 of Lawrence's 29 throws were charted as contested, a receiver and a defender arriving at the ball together. 38 percent is the highest contested rate of the 32 offenses this week; Green Bay was next at 34 and a half, and the median was 13. Last week, two of his 23 throws were contested. Across last season, 14 percent. Two of the 29 were interception-worthy, balls a defender should have caught: seven percent, second-highest in the league this week, behind only Atlanta. Against Cleveland he had none on 23 throws, and across last season he had 18 on 562, about three percent. Denver caught one of them, the interception.

What did not change is the accuracy. 21 of the 29 throws were catchable, 72 percent, seventeenth of the 32 and right on the league median of 73, within two points of his own 71 percent last season. Last week's 87 was the outlier, not this. His receivers dropped two of the 21 catchable balls, 10 percent, tied with Seattle for sixth-highest, about the 10 percent Jacksonville receivers dropped across 2025. And he threw nearly all of it from inside the pocket: one dropback out of the pocket in 31, three percent, the lowest rate of the 32 offenses this week, against about 19 percent of this offense's dropbacks last season and four of 24 last week. Neither of the two sacks the Recap counted was charted as his fault, the second straight week with none; last season he had 11. The rush he saw was not a heavy one. Denver sent five or more pass rushers on seven of the 31 dropbacks, 23 percent, 20-fifth of 32 against a median of 33, and averaged 4.2 rushers. This offense saw five or more on 26 percent of its dropbacks last season. So the throws were as catchable as usual, from inside the pocket, against an ordinary rush, and far more of them arrived with a defender.

On the ground, the box count moved the same way it did a week ago. Denver showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 11 of Jacksonville's 24 designed runs, 46 percent, fourteenth of the 32 this week. Against Cleveland it was 55 percent, and across last season this offense saw a light box on 64 percent of its designed runs. The average box on Sunday was 6.7 defenders, against 6.4 last season. The runs held up anyway: 95 yards on the 24, just under four per designed run, fourteenth in the league, against 3.9 across last season.

The defense's clearest line is one that has now shown up twice. Jacksonville sent five or more pass rushers on 13 of Denver's 31 dropbacks, 42 percent, tenth-highest of the 32 defenses this week and well above the median of 33. Against Cleveland it was 37 percent, ninth. Across last season, 26. The average rush was 4.7 men, against 4.3 a year ago. It produced no sacks this time, and Bo Nix left the pocket on five of his 31 dropbacks. What it did produce was loose throws. Two of Nix's 31 were interception-worthy, six and a half percent, the third-highest rate any defense forced this week, after a tie for second last week. Across last season opponents put four and a half percent up for grabs against this defense. One of them was the interception Jacksonville made. Otherwise: 23 of 31 catchable, 74 percent, tied with Detroit, Houston and Kansas City for eleventh-highest allowed, against the 69 percent opponents managed against this defense last season; five contested, 16 percent, tied with the Giants for ninth; and no drops.

Against the run, the box got heavier than last week and the yards went up anyway. Jacksonville showed six or fewer in the box on 12 of Denver's 25 designed runs, 48 percent, thirteenth this week, against 63 percent last week and 60 and a half across last season. Denver ran those 25 for a hundred seven yards, 4.3 per designed run, the ninth-most allowed of the 32. Last season this defense allowed 3.7, and last week three and a half.

So, the question the show is named for, now with two games to ask it of. Four things moved the same way both weeks, both times away from 2025: the defense sending five or more rushers at a higher rate than last season, the defense forcing interception-worthy throws at a top-three rate, the offense seeing heavier boxes on its designed runs, and Lawrence with no sacks charted as his fault. Five things reversed. Play-action went from first to tied for thirtieth, screens from third to tied for 20-seventh, motion from 20-seventh to eighth, contested throws from 20-second to first, and the catchable rate from second to seventeenth. Two games settle nothing on either list.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Parker Washington led Jacksonville with 13.3: seven catches on 12 targets for 98 yards. Bhayshul Tuten, 13 carries for 65 and the touchdown, +2 catches for −3, 13.2. Lawrence, 17 of 29 for a hundred 89 and the interception, 6.2. Brian Thomas Jr. caught three of eight targets for 40, and Jakobi Meyers' one catch was the 28-yarder. For Denver, Jaylen Waddle caught eight of 10 targets for a hundred 38, 17.8, and Nix scored 14.1.

A word on method. Until about Week 4 there is no within-season baseline worth the name, so every comparison here is to the 2025 Jaguars, a changed roster a year older, and to last week, which is one game. That tells you what looked unusual in Denver, not yet what this team is.

The thread, for anyone joining now. A year ago this was a 13-four team, with a pass defense the Recap ranked third and a passing offense it ranked eleventh. It opened this season by beating Cleveland 34 to 10, then lost 20 to 13 in Denver. Last week's notebook asked two questions: would the play-action rate hold against a defense that sent five or more rushers more than three times, and would the catchable rate hold when more than two throws were contested. Denver sent five or more seven times, and play-action fell to four fakes. 11 throws were contested, and the catchable rate fell back to Lawrence's own norm. Neither answer proves cause. The new line in the notebook is the contested rate, the figure that moved furthest, in percentage points, from his 2025 level this week. On Sunday, count how many of Lawrence's throws land with a defender arriving at the same moment. That tells you which of these two games was the real one.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._