Jaguars 35, Patriots 6 — Week 3: Fourteen Points, Nineteen Seconds

Third and 17 at the New England 17, one 13 left in the third quarter, Jacksonville up 14 to three. The Jaguars had been at first and goal from the two; a false start, two incompletions and a touchdown wiped out by an illegal-use-of-hands penalty had pushed them back 15 yards. Trevor Lawrence threw deep left for Parker Washington, touchdown — +3.9 by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth. It was the fourth third down Jacksonville converted on a 15-play drive that took more than eight and a half minutes. On New England's next snap Jarrian Jones intercepted Drake Maye at the Patriots' 36 and returned it to the five, and Rodriguez ran it in on the next play. 14 points in 19 seconds of game clock, touchdown snap to touchdown snap: 14 to three became 28 to three. Jacksonville beat the Patriots 35 to six at home, led from early in the second quarter on, and by the win probability model — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — bottomed out at about 40 percent.

Start with the pass defense, because it decided this game. 34 New England pass plays — a count that includes three sacks — were worth −13.9 expected points to the Patriots. On defense a negative number is the good direction, and that is the best of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, by the total and by the rate per play. For the baseline: last season this pass defense ranked third in the league, and at that rate those 34 plays would have been worth about −5. At the rate it allowed over the first two weeks, just short of −1. It was not a yardage game — 234 net passing yards allowed, sixteenth of the 28 so far this week, and five completions of 20 yards or more. It was a takeaway game: three, all on pass plays, tied for the third-most of any team so far this week. The first came with the game scoreless: first and 10 at the Jacksonville 35, three 58 left in the first quarter, Maye sacked at the 42, the ball out, and DaVon Hamilton on it at the 38. 17 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game, moving Jacksonville from about 40 percent, its low point of the afternoon, to 58. The offense went 62 yards in 10 plays for the first touchdown.

The second takeaway came at the goal line. New England had driven from its own 28 to the Jacksonville two, starting with four 17 left in the half, down 14 to three. Third and two, one oh two left: Maye threw short right for Efton Chism, and Travis Hunter intercepted it in the end zone. Seven points of win probability, −4 and a half expected points for New England. That was one of four Patriots drives that reached the Jacksonville 20, and the four produced six points: two field goals, the interception, and a missed 38-yarder. 10 New England snaps at or inside the 20, no touchdowns. On third down the defense stopped eight of 12, tied for sixth so far this week.

The run game is the part of this win the first two weeks did not have. 30 rush plays, 137 yards, two touchdowns, +6.1 expected points — second of the 28 teams to play so far this week, behind only Atlanta, and seventh of the 92 team games played this season. Half of those runs were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At the rate Jacksonville ran over Weeks 1 and 2, when it ranked eighteenth and then ninth of 32, those 30 would have been worth about zero; at last season's rate, when it sat near the middle of the league, also about zero. It came in pieces — two runs gained 10 or more — and it closed the game. After a Patriots field goal made it 28 to six, Jacksonville started at the New England 49 and ran on seven of eight plays: Bhayshul Tuten for six, five and three, a 13-yard completion to Jakobi Meyers, Tuten for three and three, then third and four at the 16 with eight 56 left, Lawrence around left end for 15 to the one, and Tuten over from there.

The passing game opens on a conversion rate: eight of 12 on third down, 67 percent, the best of the 28 teams to play so far this week, from a team that finished in the bottom half of the league on third down last season. Three of five needing seven yards or more; all three needing one or two. The passing game itself was worth +7.6 expected points on 29 pass plays, eighth of the 28 by the rate per play, with 52 percent of them successful. That is almost exactly the pace of the first two weeks — at that rate, 29 plays would have been worth about eight — and well above last season's, when it ranked twelfth and the same plays would have been worth under two. It was short work: 178 net passing yards, 20-second of the 28, and the longest completion was 23 yards, to Brenton Strange on second and one. Three touchdown passes, from 12, 10 17 yards. The one turnover was Marcus Jones's interception on first and 10 from the Jacksonville 20, 11 13 left in the second quarter, returned to the 21; it cost three points, after New England lost a touchdown to a holding call. Every Jacksonville drive that reached the New England 20 ended in a touchdown: five trips, five touchdowns.

The run defense had a quieter afternoon. 26 New England rush plays for 83 yards, tied for the eighth-fewest allowed so far this week, and about −1 expected point for the Patriots — fifteenth of the 28, close to both the first-two-weeks rate and last season's. No Patriots run gained 10 yards, and 15 of the 26 gained three or fewer.

The drive chart, 10 drives: five touchdowns, three punts, the interception, and one long miss — after the Hunter interception, Jacksonville went from its own 20 to its own 48 in the last 56 seconds of the half, and Cam Little's 70-yard try went wide right. Two three-and-outs. 35 points is tied for the second-most of the 28 teams so far this week, and six allowed is the fewest.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Jacksonville went 13 four with the third-best pass defense in the league by expected points per play, a passing game twelfth, a run game and a run defense both near the middle of the league, and a third-down offense in the bottom half. Week 1 was a 34 to 10 home win over Cleveland in which the passing game was the best in the league by the rate per play and the defense stopped seven of eight third downs, also first. Week 2 was a 20 to 13 loss at Denver in which the passing game fell to 20-fifth and the pass defense, fifth in Week 1, to 20-second. Sunday put the pass defense back where it finished last season and past it, and added a run game second of the 28 teams to play so far this week, after eighteenth and ninth of 32 in the first two weeks. Three games do not settle much, and this one came against a Patriots passing game that has been below its own last-season rate in all three of its games. But the Jacksonville that showed up Sunday looked far more like Week 1 than Week 2, with a run game on top.

Jacksonville is at Cincinnati next Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._