Jaguars, Week 3 — What Repeats: Loose Throws Off a Four-Man Rush

The number that repeated is the one the pass rush was supposed to explain, and on Sunday the pass rush was not there. Charters marked four of New England's 31 throws interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. That is 13 percent, the second-highest rate any defense forced in Week 3, behind only Buffalo. Against Cleveland it was two of 22, tied for second. In Denver, two of 31, third. Three weeks, three top-three finishes. Eight loose throws drawn in 84 this season, against 28 in 634 across last season. Jacksonville caught two of Sunday's four: Travis Hunter in the end zone on third and two, Jarrian Jones on the return to the five. Of the other two, one fell incomplete on third and six at the Jacksonville 20, the snap before the missed field goal, and one landed in Mack Hollins's hands for 18 yards on the first snap of the fourth quarter.

Now the part that broke. Jacksonville sent five or more pass rushers on seven of 37 dropbacks, 19 percent, 20-eighth of the 32 defenses this week. It was 37 percent against Cleveland, ninth, and 42 in Denver, tenth. Last season, 26. Last week's notebook had five or more rushers as one of the things moving the same way twice, and it moved the other way, below last year. The average rush was four men, against 4.3 a season ago. What it got was three sacks, none charted as Drake Maye's fault, and Maye out of the pocket on eight of his 30 dropbacks, scrambles included. The ball charting says the throws were simply poor. 20 of New England's 31 were catchable, 65 percent, the eleventh-lowest rate any defense allowed this week, against 69 percent opponents managed against Jacksonville last season. Two were contested, about six percent. New England dropped nothing to help.

Against the run, the box got heavier for the second week in a row, and this time the yards followed. Jacksonville showed a light box, six or fewer defenders, on six of New England's 23 designed runs. 26 percent, 20-ninth of the 32 this week, against a median of 41. That is 63 percent against Cleveland, 48 in Denver, 26 on Sunday, from a defense that showed a light box on about 60 percent of the designed runs it faced last season. The average box was 6.9, against six and a half a year ago. New England's 23 designed runs gained 64 yards, 2.8 a run, the fifth-fewest any defense allowed this week. Last season this defense gave up 3.7 a designed run, and in the first two weeks three and a half and then 4.3. No New England designed run gained more than seven yards.

On offense, last week's notebook asked one question: how many of Trevor Lawrence's throws would arrive with a defender at the same moment. Four of 28. That is 14 percent, fifteenth of the 32 offenses this week and near the median of 12, after 11 of 29 in Denver. Across last season he was at 14. So Denver was the odd game, not this one. The accuracy came with it. 22 of the 28 throws were catchable, 79 percent, ninth in the league and above his 71 across last season. One throw was interception-worthy, an incompletion toward Jakobi Meyers with 49 seconds left in the half, four percent, close to his rate last season. Marcus Jones's interception was not a charted interception-worthy ball. The receivers dropped two of the 22 catchable balls, nine percent, the sixth-highest rate this week and about what Jacksonville dropped across 2025. Lawrence left the pocket on six of 31 dropbacks, scrambles included, after one of 31 a week ago, and back at this offense's 19 percent from last season. One sack, not charted as his fault, the third week without one.

The older notebook question, from Week 1, was play-action against a heavy rush, and Sunday was the test. New England sent five or more on 15 of 31 dropbacks, 48 percent, the fourth-highest rate any offense faced this week. Cleveland sent it on one in eight, Denver on 23. Play-action held in the middle: eight of 31 dropbacks, 26 percent, thirteenth in the league and just over the median. That is 42 percent in Week 1, 13 in Week 2, 26 on Sunday, against 22 across last season. The eight play-action throws went five for 54 yards. The other 20 went 14 for a hundred 28. Motion fell back: 30 of 78 charted plays, 38 percent, 20-sixth, after 55 percent in Denver and a little under half across last season.

The run game had its best day into its heaviest fronts. New England showed a light box on eight of 28 designed runs, 29 percent, 20-seventh this week. 55 percent against Cleveland, 46 in Denver, 29 on Sunday, against 64 across last season. The average box was 6.9, against 6.4 a year ago. The 28 runs gained a hundred 29 yards, 4.6 a run, eleventh of the 32, the highest of Jacksonville's three games and above last season's 3.9. The longest went 15 yards.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Lawrence led with 19.8: 19 of 29 for a hundred 82, three touchdowns and the interception, +4 carries for 25. Bhayshul Tuten, 15 carries for 73 and a touchdown, two catches for 17, 16 even. Meyers caught seven of eight targets for 64 and a score, 15.9. Parker Washington, three of five for 40 and the 17-yard touchdown, 11 and a half. Chris Rodriguez Jr., eight carries for 37 and a touchdown, 9.7. Josh Cameron's one catch was a 12-yard touchdown. Brenton Strange, three of five for 32. Brian Thomas Jr. was targeted once and caught it for eight. For New England, Hollins led with 11.7 on six catches for 87, and Maye scored 3.8.

One note on method. Through this week every comparison here is to last season, a different roster answering a different question. From next week the yardstick becomes this team's own season.

The thread, from the top. Last season Jacksonville went 13 four with the third-best pass defense in the league by expected points per play and a passing offense twelfth. This season it beat Cleveland 34 to 10 at home, lost 20 to 13 in Denver, and beat New England 35 to six at home, two and one. Last week's notebook had four things moving the same way twice. Three held a third time: interception-worthy throws forced at a top-three rate, heavier boxes on the offense's designed runs, and no sack charted as Lawrence's fault. One broke: five or more rushers, from top 10 to 20-eighth. And the question the notebook left open was answered. Lawrence's contested rate went back to his own level, and the catchable rate went up with it. The new line in the notebook is the one Sunday wrote: this defense drew four loose throws with a four-man rush. Whether it can keep doing that without sending five is what next week tells you. Jacksonville is at the Bengals next.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._