Jaguars 22, Bengals 17 — Week 4: Two Picks and a Yard to Spare

Two minutes left in the first half, Jacksonville up six to three, Cincinnati at third and six on the Jacksonville 45. Joe Burrow threw short over the middle for Dohnte Meyers, and Lewis intercepted at the 37 and ran it back 45 yards to the Cincinnati 18. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that moved Jacksonville from even to about 67 percent. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it cost Cincinnati 6.2. Bhayshul Tuten ran for nine, then two with a face-mask penalty on top to the three, then had a touchdown taken away by a holding call, then ran six more to the seven. With one 27 left Trevor Lawrence threw short left to Brian Thomas for the touchdown, 13 to three. Jacksonville won 22 to 17 in Cincinnati and never trailed.

Start with the pass defense, because it gave up yards and won anyway. 56 Cincinnati pass plays, two of them sacks, were worth +7.4 expected points to the Bengals; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks, the same 56 would have been worth about −9.4. Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards, and Tee Higgins alone caught 11 for a hundred 57. But two throws were worth −11.2 to Cincinnati between them, and both were interceptions. The second came on the first snap of the fourth quarter: Jacksonville up 16 to 10, Higgins had just gone 26 yards to the Jacksonville 10, and on first and 10 Burrow threw short right for Mitchell Tinsley. Oluokun intercepted at the 10. 22 points of win probability, the second-biggest swing of the game. A third interception, by Hunter in the first quarter, came back on a roughing-the-passer penalty against Armstead.

That is the notebook answer from last week. The question was whether this defense could keep drawing loose throws with a four-man rush. It kept the four-man rush: five or more pass rushers on 10 of 58 dropbacks, 17 percent, 20-fifth of the 30 charted defenses this week, after 32 percent over the first three weeks. The loose throws thinned out. Charters marked two of Burrow's 54 throws interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, four percent, after eight in the 84 throws this defense faced in Weeks 1 to 3. It still came away with two interceptions. 10 of the 54 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 19 percent, twice the rate of the first three weeks. Two sacks, 11 yards from Striggow in the second quarter and three from Armstead to open the second half.

The run defense opens on its success rate: four of 15 Cincinnati rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. 15 rush plays, 23 yards, −4.1 expected points to the Bengals, and here the negative is the good direction. At the rate this defense allowed over the first three weeks, those 15 would have been worth about −0.4. Chase Brown had nine carries for 10 yards, the longest six. Of 13 designed runs, Jacksonville played six with a light box, six or fewer defenders, close to its early-season mix, and the 13 gained 18 yards. The one run that broke, a Samaje Perine touchdown from the 14 in the second quarter, came back for holding. By the fourth quarter Cincinnati had stopped running: two rush plays, one of them Burrow's one-yard touchdown run.

The passing game opens on its rate per play: 27 pass plays, four of them sacks, worth +10.2 expected points. At the rate Jacksonville passed over the first three weeks, they would have been worth about +7. 52 percent were successful. Lawrence completed 18 of 23 for 227 yards and the touchdown, no interceptions, and charters marked 18 of the 23 catchable, 78 percent, fifth of the 30 charted offenses, with one contested, after 21 percent across his first three games. None was interception-worthy, and nothing was dropped. Brenton Strange caught seven of eight targets for 95 yards. The first was the one that started the scoring: third and 18 from the Jacksonville 11, scoreless first quarter, Lawrence over the middle to Strange for 23, +3.2 expected points and nine points of win probability. The drive ended in Little's 55-yard field goal. Play-action carried part of it, eight of 27 dropbacks, 30 percent, ninth this week, and Lawrence went five of six on those throws for 66 yards. Motion on 60 percent of charted plays, fourth this week, after 44 percent over the first three weeks. The cost was the four sacks, as many as Lawrence took in his first three games combined, from four different Bengals.

The run game opens on its yards per designed run, four and a half, about where it has been all season. 25 rush plays, a hundred 13 yards, +0.9 expected points; at the rate of the first three weeks, about +2. 36 percent successful. Tuten carried 17 times for 73 and lost two touchdowns to holding calls: 44 yards off right guard in the second quarter, and three yards from the Cincinnati three just before half. Cincinnati showed a light box on 13 of 25 designed runs, 52 percent, twelfth of 30, against 43 over the first three weeks. The touchdown that counted was Chris Rodriguez's. Up 16 to 10, the Jaguars started at their own 24 with 10 29 left. Lawrence ran for two on third and one. Tuten went three yards and got 15 more on a face-mask penalty, then six. Strange caught 16 to the Cincinnati 25 on second and four. Then first and 10, Rodriguez off left guard, 25 yards, touchdown, 22 to 10. The two-point try failed.

The turning point was the last Cincinnati snap that mattered. After Burrow's one-yard touchdown made it 22 to 17, Strange caught 15 on third and eight to force two Bengals timeouts, a third-and-10 catch by Parker Washington that review cut from 39 yards to seven, and a punt. Cincinnati drove from its 17 to the Jacksonville 21 in three throws, then missed three in a row. Fourth and 10, 56 seconds left: Burrow short over the middle to Brown, and Lane tackled him at the 12. Nine yards, one short, and 26 points of win probability to Jacksonville, the biggest swing of the game. The defense stopped seven of 12 third downs, and Cincinnati scored twice in 10 red-zone snaps.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Lawrence 13.1. Strange 13 even. Tuten 10.1 on 17 carries for 73 two catches for 18. Rodriguez nine and a half, six carries for 35 and the touchdown. Thomas 8.7, two catches for 17 and the seven-yard score. Josh Cameron 5.2 on two catches for 42, the longer a 29-yarder to the Cincinnati three. Jakobi Meyers 4.8, Washington one and a half. For Cincinnati, Burrow led with 23.7 and Higgins had 21.2.

The thread, for anyone new. Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34 to 10 at home, lost 20 to 13 in Denver, beat New England 35 to six at home, and now won 22 to 17 in Cincinnati. Three and one. The pass defense has now had two very good weeks and two expensive ones, the expensive ones both on the road, and this week the takeaways covered the yards. The line for next week's notebook: Lawrence threw one contested ball in 23. Whether the clean throws hold is what to watch.

That's your Jaguars — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._