Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 — Week 5: Fourth-and-5 Score, 57-Yard Winner

Jacksonville beat Philadelphia 19-17 at home, and it had to win the game twice in the last 3:26. Down 14-10 on fourth and 5 at the Philadelphia 27, Trevor Lawrence threw deep right to Parker Washington for the touchdown. Cam Little missed the extra point wide left, so it stood 16-14. Jake Elliott's 48-yard field goal put the Eagles back in front 17-16 with 12 seconds left. Ameer Abdullah returned the kickoff 53 yards to the Philadelphia 39, and Little made a 57-yarder with 1 second on the clock.

The passing game carried the offense, and expected points added (EPA) shows how far: what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Its 41 pass plays were worth +10.2 EPA, +0.25 a play, just under the +0.30 it averaged through Week 4. Lawrence completed 24 of 39 for 331 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Washington caught 6 of 9 targets for 124 yards and both scores; the first came in a scoreless first quarter, first and 10 at the Jacksonville 49, a short throw to the right that he took 51 yards. Brenton Strange caught 7 of 8 for 68, including 27 yards deep left to the Philadelphia 1 midway through the fourth. The costs were Jalen Carter's two sacks, both strip-sacks Jacksonville recovered, and one throw: third and 7 at his own 46, down 14-10 late in the third, Lawrence went deep right for Brian Thomas Jr. and Quinyon Mitchell intercepted at the Philadelphia 26. Thomas finished with no catches on 3 targets.

The charting says the ball was cleaner and less catchable at once. Only 2 of Lawrence's 39 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 5.1%, against 17.5% through Week 4. But 26 of the 39 were catchable, 66.7%, down from 78.6%, and receivers dropped 3 of those 26, 11.5%, after 6.2%. Philadelphia sent five or more pass rushers on 15 of 44 dropbacks, 34.1%, up from the 29.2% this offense saw through Week 4. Two sacks were charged to Lawrence, after none in the first four weeks.

The run game was Muffed, and its success rate tells it: 29.6% of 27 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Together they were worth -5.9 EPA, -0.22 a play, against +0.07 through Week 4, for 102 yards. Bhayshul Tuten carried 22 times for 72. The 24 designed runs gained 77 yards, and Philadelphia showed six or fewer in the box on 12 of them, 50%, a little lighter than the 45.3% this offense saw through Week 4. The worst of it came at the goal line before halftime. Down 14-7, first and goal at the 1 with 15 seconds left, Zack Baun stopped Chris Rodriguez Jr. for no gain, two throws fell incomplete, and on fourth and 1 Baun dropped Tuten for a 6-yard loss around left end, a snap worth -3.9 EPA.

The pass defense held the Eagles near zero and took nothing away. Jalen Hurts threw 40 times and none was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after opponents threw 10 in 138 against this defense through Week 4. Philadelphia's 41 pass plays were worth -0.6 EPA, -0.02 a play, against -0.05 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction, so this was close to normal. Jacksonville sent five or more on 17 of 42 dropbacks, 40.5%, well above its 26.3% through Week 4, and only 24 of Hurts' 40 throws were catchable, 60%, against 72.5% allowed. The one leak was big: tied 7-7 in the second quarter, third and 10 at the Philadelphia 38, Hurts went deep right to Darius Cooper for a 62-yard touchdown, +6.7 EPA. The defense stopped 9 of 15 third downs.

The run defense Smashed, and the yardage is the headline: 18 Philadelphia rush plays gained 22 yards. They were worth -11.4 EPA, -0.63 a play, against -0.07 allowed through Week 4, and only 22.2% were successful. Jacksonville played light boxes a little less often, six or fewer on 7 of 17 designed runs, 41.2%, against 45% through Week 4; those 17 runs gained 20 yards. It set the tone in the first quarter. Scoreless, fourth and 1 at the Jacksonville 37, Will Shipley went off right guard and DaVon Hamilton stopped him for no gain, a ruling upheld on review. That snap was worth -3.0 EPA and 10.7 points of win probability, and on Jacksonville's third snap after it Washington scored from 51 yards out. Dameon Pierce finished with 14 yards on 11 carries. On Philadelphia's last drive, third and 3 at the Jacksonville 27 with 17 seconds left, Travon Walker dropped Pierce for a 3-yard loss, and Elliott's kick came from 48 yards.

The game turned on two fourth and 5s, three minutes apart. The first came with 6:40 left, down 14-10, at the Philadelphia 5, after Strange's 27-yarder to the 1 was undone by a false start and two delay-of-game penalties. Lawrence threw short left for Jakobi Meyers and it fell incomplete, -2.8 EPA and 12.8 points of win probability. The defense forced a three-and-out. The second came at the 27 with 3:26 left, one snap after a third-down throw to Josh Cameron fell incomplete. Lawrence went deep right and Washington caught it in the end zone, +5.2 EPA and 37.2 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Jacksonville ran 13 red-zone snaps and scored no touchdowns on any of them.

The scheme moved more and hurried less. Motion came on 51.6% of charted plays, against 47.8% through Week 4, and there was no no-huddle at all, after 5.5%. Play-action fell to 8 of 44 dropbacks, 18.2%, from 26.5%, though Lawrence completed 6 of those 8 for 115 yards. Screens held near their usual rate, 4 of 44, 9.1% against 10.6%. Lawrence left the pocket 10 times on 44 dropbacks, after 13 times on 113 through Week 4. The offense converted 5 of 16 third downs.

Last week's question was whether Lawrence's clean throws would hold after a nearly uncontested day at Cincinnati. They held: 2 contested in 39. The catchable rate is the new entry in the notebook, along with the drops. The one to watch next is the red zone, 13 snaps without a touchdown, and the takeaways: a defense that drew 10 interception-worthy throws in four weeks drew none on Sunday and forced no turnover.

That's your Jaguars, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._