Jaguars 31, Texans 34 — Week 6: Hunter Both Ways, Little From 60

Jacksonville lost 34-31 to Houston at home on Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yard field goal with 3 seconds left, after coming back from 10 down to tie it. Trailing 31-21 after three quarters, the Jaguars got Trevor Lawrence's 7-yard touchdown to Travis Hunter, then Hunter's interception in the end zone, then Cam Little's 60-yard field goal with 2:00 left. Each side turned it over once. 10 drives produced four touchdowns, a field goal, an interception, a turnover on downs and one three-and-out.

The passing game held its standard and scored four times, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts it right on its average. Its 41 pass plays were worth +11.4 EPA, +0.28 a play against +0.28 through Week 5, and 53.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Lawrence completed 24 of 41 for 306 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Jakobi Meyers caught 5 for 83, Parker Washington 4 of 11 targets for 64, Brenton Strange 5 for 44, Hunter 4 for 59 and Bhayshul Tuten 4 for 48 and two scores. The throw that got Jacksonville going came down 7-0 with 6:56 left in the second: second and 10 at the Houston 27, a short pass to the right that Tuten carried in for the touchdown, +3.39 EPA and 11.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The miss came earlier in that quarter: third and 5 at the Houston 5, Lawrence threw short left for Meyers and Calen Bullock intercepted in the end zone, -4.82 EPA.

The run game moved the chains and little else, and success rate is the fair read: 50% of 26 rush plays succeeded, but together they were worth +0.25 EPA, +0.01 a play, level with its +0.01 through Week 5. They gained 107 yards and no touchdowns. Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran 11 times for 55 and Tuten 12 for 39.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed shows how far it fell: Houston's 34 pass plays were worth +0.41 a play, against -0.05 allowed through Week 5. On defense a positive number is bad, and +13.9 in total is a lot of it. C.J. Stroud completed 24 of 34 for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and 52.9% of the pass plays succeeded. Jaylin Noel caught all 4 of his targets for 107 yards: 34 on first and 10 at 7-7 to set up a field goal, 50 deep middle to the Jacksonville 13 with 48 seconds left in the half to set up a touchdown, and a 13-yard score on third and 10 that made it 24-14. Nico Collins added 74 yards on 3 catches.

The run defense stayed on the right side of zero and still gave up the run that put Houston up 10, and EPA per play shows both: Houston's 25 rush plays were worth -0.62 EPA, -0.03 a play. On defense negative is good, but this unit had allowed -0.16 through Week 5. Only 40% succeeded, for 114 yards, and Woody Marks needed 15 carries for 56. The one that hurt came up 24-21 with 58 seconds left in the third: first and 10 at the Jacksonville 25, Jawhar Jordan ran through left tackle for the touchdown.

The game turned in the last four minutes, twice. Down 31-28 with 3:59 left, Houston had second and 4 at the Jacksonville 4; Stroud threw short right for Xavier Hutchinson and Hunter intercepted in the end zone. That snap was worth -6.02 EPA to Houston and 24.1 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Jacksonville drove from its own 20 to the Houston 42, where Lawrence's 6-yard throw to Strange on third and 10 left fourth and 4, and Little tied it 31-31 from 60. Then the defense let Houston convert third and 2 at its own 40 with 1:04 left, Stroud to Marks for 19 yards and 15.1 points of win probability, and Fairbairn kicked the winner three runs later. The offense converted 7 of 12 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked about the red zone, 13 snaps without a touchdown against the Eagles, and about a defense that forced no turnover. Both moved: 3 touchdowns on 17 red-zone snaps, from Tuten, Nate Boerkircher and Hunter, and Hunter's interception. The empty drives were Bullock's red-zone pick and a fourth and 3 at the Houston 37 in a scoreless first quarter that fell incomplete, -2.35 EPA. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.41 a play here gets back toward the -0.05 it allowed through Week 5.

That's your Jaguars, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._