Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 — Week 9: 57 Passing Yards Allowed

Jacksonville won 33-10 in Baltimore on Thursday night, and the pass defense decided it: the Ravens' 20 pass plays gained 57 yards, and Baltimore never ran a play inside the Jacksonville 20. The offense scored on 7 of its 11 drives, three touchdowns and four field goals, and led 17-3 at the half. It lost one fumble and intercepted Joe Fagnano twice, a turnover margin of +1.

The passing game ran a little above its standard, and success rate leads the case: 53.8% of Jacksonville's 26 pass plays were successful plays, gaining what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +7.7, +0.30 a play against +0.28 through Week 8. Trevor Lawrence completed 16 of 26 for 242 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. The Ravens sent five or more rushers on 10 of 26 dropbacks, 38.5% against the 30.2% Jacksonville had seen, and he threw on all 26. The hands slipped: 18 of his throws were catchable, 69.2% against 73.5%, and 2 were dropped.

The first big gain came on the opening drive. Scoreless, second and 6 at his own 27, Lawrence went deep right to Nate Boerkircher for 52 yards to the Baltimore 21, +4.1 EPA and 14.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. On the same drive Jakobi Meyers was pushed out at the 1 after 16 yards. Meyers finished with 4 catches for 65, including 14 yards on third and 7 from his own 7 in the second quarter.

The run game was the weak unit, and EPA per play is the measure: 29 rush plays worth -4.95, -0.17 a play against +0.04 through Week 8, for 78 yards and a 37.9% success rate. The fronts were not the problem. The Ravens showed six or fewer in the box on 19 of 29 designed runs, 65.5% against the 41.6% Jacksonville had faced, and not one carry came against eight or more. Bhayshul Tuten ran 12 times for 29 yards and Chris Rodriguez Jr. 10 times for 19, and each scored, the only two touchdowns Jacksonville managed in 11 red-zone snaps. Ameer Abdullah had the best rate of the three, 7 carries for 30, every one after motion.

The pass defense Smashed, and total EPA allowed measures it: the Ravens' 20 pass plays were worth -16.7, -0.84 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 8. On defense a big negative number is good. Fagnano completed 10 of 18 for 60 yards and only 25% of Baltimore's pass plays succeeded. Jacksonville sent five or more on 9 of 21 dropbacks, 42.9% against 30.4% through Week 8, and only 12 of the Ravens' 19 throws were catchable, 63.2% against 71.1% allowed. Fagnano threw two interception-worthy balls, ones a defender should catch, and Jacksonville caught both.

Montaric Brown took the first on third and 14 early in the third, a short throw left for Zay Flowers, up 17-3. The second came early in the fourth: up 23-3, first and 10 at the Baltimore 29, Fagnano threw short left for Flowers again and Jourdan Lewis intercepted at the 27, returning it to the 23, -5.9 EPA for the Ravens. Flowers caught 3 of 6 targets for 6 yards. Foyesade Oluokun sacked Fagnano on third and 9, and the Ravens converted 4 of 14 third downs.

The run defense gave up yards but not much else, and success rate tells it best: 35.3% of the Ravens' 34 rush plays succeeded. EPA put them at -1.9, -0.06 a play against -0.16 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too, though less so than usual. The 172 yards came with Jacksonville playing heavy, six or fewer in the box on only 7 of 33 designed runs, 21.2% against 40.1% through Week 8. Derrick Henry ran 17 times for 57; Justice Hill did the damage, 9 for 85 and Baltimore's only touchdown. The short-yardage stops held. Up 10-3 in the second quarter, on third and 1 at the Baltimore 29, Oluokun stopped Mark Andrews on a direct snap for no gain, and on fourth and 1 at the Jacksonville 41 late in the third, Andrews fumbled an aborted snap and fell on it for no gain.

The game turned with 1:06 left in the half. Up 10-3, second and 8 at midfield, out of the no-huddle, Lawrence threw deep left to Parker Washington for a 50-yard touchdown and 17-3, +5.2 EPA and 10.6 points of win probability. The one turnover the offense gave back cost nothing: Travis Hunter fumbled after a short catch from the Baltimore 49 with 5:15 left in the third, -5.7 EPA, and it was still 20-3 when Jacksonville next had the ball. Hill's touchdown came after Jacksonville was already up 26-3.

The scheme ran on motion and went light on the fake. Motion came on 57.5% of charted plays against 50.3% through Week 8, and play-action on 4 of 26 dropbacks, 15.4% against 24.8%, though Lawrence completed all four for 89 yards, against 12 of 22 for 153 off straight dropbacks. Run-pass options came out 3 times, 5.5% of snaps, half the 6 Jacksonville ran in the first eight weeks combined. The Ravens leaned on screens, 5 of 21 dropbacks, 23.8% against the 8.5% Jacksonville had seen, and went 0 for 3 off play-action.

Last week's notebook asked whether the line would settle back after the sacks against the Colts. It did: Lawrence was not sacked once on 26 dropbacks, and he left the pocket only 3 times, against a front that sent five or more 38.5% of the time. The one to watch next: the run game, -0.17 a play against light boxes on 65.5% of designed runs, and whether Tuten's 29 yards on 12 carries are a bad night or the beginning of a slide.

That's your Jaguars, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jaguars on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._