Chargers 14, Raiders 26 — Week 2: A Free First Down, Then a Fumble

Fourth and one at their own 46, three 52 left, down 17 to 14. The Chargers were only there by luck. On third and seven from the 40, Justin Herbert had been sacked by Malcolm Koonce and fumbled, and Tre Harris recovered the ball six yards past the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles lined up to go for it, Las Vegas was flagged for too many men on the field, and it was first and 10 at the Raiders' 48. By the win probability model the Chargers went from 31 percent to 49 without running a play. On the next snap, Omarion Hampton ran up the middle for two yards, Nakobe Dean forced the ball out, and Jeremy Chinn recovered at the Las Vegas 41 and returned it 43 yards to the Los Angeles 16, where Herbert made the tackle. 49 percent became 14, and three plays later it was 24 to 14. The Chargers lost 26 to 14 at home on Sunday, the same score they lost by at home to Arizona a week earlier, and they are oh and two.

The run game is the paragraph where yards and value disagree. 32 rush plays gained a hundred 27 yards, eighth-most of the 28 teams that have played this week. By expected points added, those plays were worth −15.6. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is value the ground game gave back relative to what those situations were already worth. It is the lowest rushing total of any team so far this week, and per play only Houston was worse. Three plays did most of it. Hampton's fumble was worth −7.4. An aborted shotgun snap on first and goal from the Raiders' five cost about a point, and another on third and one, down three late in the third quarter, cost 2.8 and forced a punt. Set those three aside and the other 29 runs were still worth about −4.3. The good stretch was a 10-play second-quarter touchdown drive from their own 31 with eight runs on it, the last five snaps all on the ground for 33 yards, ending with Hampton over left guard to tie the game at seven. After halftime it was 12 rush plays for 32 yards. At the rate this run game produced last season, when it ranked eleventh, those 32 plays would have been worth about +0.6.

The passing game had one big play and not much around it. Third and five at their own 42, 11 14 left in the third quarter, down 10 to seven: Herbert deep left to Harris for 53 yards, pushed out at the Las Vegas five. 18 points of win probability, the Chargers' best play of the day, and two snaps later Herbert hit Oronde Gadsden for 10 yards and a 14 to 10 lead. That was the only completion of 20 yards or more. The other 14 completions gained a hundred 39. In all, 30 pass plays were worth −0.6 expected points, nineteenth per play of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the completions gained a hundred 92 yards, tied for nineteenth. Three sacks, and two interceptions, both by Hezekiah Masses. The first, in a scoreless first quarter, was returned 29 yards to the Los Angeles 23 and cost about 14 points of win probability. At the rate this offense passed last season, when it ranked 20-sixth, those 30 plays would have been worth about −1.7.

Short yardage is where drives went to die. On third downs needing one or two yards the Chargers converted one of four: an incompletion, the aborted snap, and Hampton stopped for no gain on third and two with nine 10 left in the fourth quarter. The costliest sequence came before the half. Tied at seven, second and two at their own 31 with under a minute left, Herbert threw deep and incomplete twice, and the punt came with 42 seconds left. Las Vegas needed one completion, 42 yards to Tre Tucker, to reach range for Matt Gay's 59-yard field goal with eight seconds on the clock. Overall the offense converted five of 14 third downs, eighteenth so far this week. Last season this was the third-best third-down offense in the league.

The penalties landed at bad moments. Backed up at their own one early in the second quarter, the Chargers had Joe Alt false-start on back-to-back snaps, third and five became third and nine from the two, and the punt gave Las Vegas the ball near midfield. On the third snap of that drive Kirk Cousins threw 40 yards to Tucker for the game's first points. And the last points of the day were a safety, Alt flagged for holding in the end zone on second and 10 from the six with a minute 46 left.

The run defense is the unit that looked like last year. Las Vegas ran 26 times for 60 yards. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Tampa Bay has allowed fewer, and Cincinnati matched it. Those plays were worth −11.5 expected points, and on defense a negative number is the good direction; that is the third-best total so far this week, and tied for fourth per play. The stand at the end of the first quarter was the best of it. Las Vegas had first and goal at the three and ran Ashton Jeanty four straight times. On fourth and one from the one, Del'Shawn Phillips and Tony Jefferson stopped a direct snap for no gain. At the rate this run defense allowed last season, when it ranked fourth, those 26 plays would have been worth about −1.9.

The pass defense gave up the plays that decided it. 31 Las Vegas pass plays were worth just about +6 expected points, eighteenth per play of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the completions gained 253 yards, 20-first. Four pass plays gained 20 yards or more, a hundred 29 in all, two of them deep balls to Tucker for 40 42. The defense stopped nine of 13 third downs, tied with Carolina for sixth so far this week, but two of the four conversions were touchdowns to Cody White, from the 13 on third and 10 and from the 11 on third and five. Cam Hart's interception at the 15 on the Raiders' first drive was the one takeaway. At last season's rate, when this pass defense ranked ninth, those 31 plays would have been worth about −2.8.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Last season the Chargers went 11 six. The run defense ranked fourth in the league by expected points per play, the pass defense ninth, the third-down offense third, the run game eleventh and the passing game 20-sixth. In Week 1 they lost to Arizona at home, 26 to 14, with two giveaways and no takeaways, a run game that ranked 30-first of 32, a pass defense that ranked 20-fourth and a run defense that ranked nineteenth. This week the run defense came back to where it was a year ago. The run game did not: 30-first of 32, then 20-seventh of 28. The pass defense was 20-fourth of 32, then eighteenth of 28. And the turnovers repeated, five giveaways against one takeaway across two home games. Two games do not settle a season for a team that won 11. But the Chargers led for about six minutes on Sunday, and the problems that showed up twice are the ones to watch.

Los Angeles visits Buffalo next Sunday. The Bills have the most points and the most rushing yards of any team so far this week, so watch the run defense first, and watch whether the offense can get through third and short.

That's your Chargers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._