Chargers, Week 2 — What Repeats: Motion Stays, the Fake Fades

A week ago the play fake carried nearly half the Chargers' passing yards. Justin Herbert threw seven passes off play-action against Arizona, completed six of them, for a hundred yards. On Sunday against the Raiders he threw six off play-action and completed three, for 25. His other 21 throws went 12 for a hundred 67. The most productive part of the Week 1 passing game was the least productive part of the Week 2 one, and the call rate dipped: play-action on eight of 31 dropbacks, 26 percent, tied with Denver for fourteenth of the 32 teams this week, after 31 percent and eighth last week, and 23 percent across all of last season. Across last season 82 of Herbert's hundred 15 play-action throws were caught, for 971 yards. So Week 1 looked like the fake working and Week 2 looked like it not working, and neither one is yet the pattern.

What did carry over is everything before the snap. Motion on 55 of 84 charted plays, 65 percent, third-highest of the 32 teams this week, behind only Miami and Buffalo. Last week it was 67 percent, second-highest. Across all of last season it was 42. Two games, both more than 20 points above last year, both in the top three in the league. That is one of the widest gaps above last season on this offense, and it held both weeks. No-huddle rose too, six and a half percent of snaps, tenth, against two percent last week and about four last season. And one thing disappeared. Not a single screen on 31 dropbacks. The Chargers were the only offense of the 32 without one this week, where last season and last week they threw a screen on about six percent of dropbacks.

The ball charting is a split verdict. 17 of Herbert's 27 throws were charted catchable, 63 percent, 20-eighth of 32, so only four offenses were lower. His own figure across last season, on 512 charted throws, was 72 and a half; last week it was 70. Then his receivers dropped three of the 17, 18 percent, the highest drop rate of any offense this week. Across last season this offense dropped 19 of 404 catchable balls, about five percent, and last week none. Only one of the 27 was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, four percent, 20-eighth, when a week ago Arizona contested seven of 27, second-highest in the league. The traffic cleared and the ball got less catchable anyway. One throw was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, seventh-highest this week, and it was the second of his two interceptions; the first was not charted that way. One throwaway. None of the three sacks the Recap counted was charted as his fault.

He was out of the pocket again. Nine of 31 Chargers dropbacks had the quarterback outside it, 29 percent, fifth-highest this week, after 34 percent and fourth-highest last week. Across last season it was a hundred 71 of 681, about one in four. It came without many big rushes: the Raiders sent five or more pass rushers on eight of 31 dropbacks, 26 percent, 20-third of 32, where opponents sent five or more on 30 percent of this offense's dropbacks last season. Two games, both top five in the league for leaving the pocket.

The run game is where the Week 1 pattern repeated exactly and the result changed. The Raiders showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 20 of 31 designed runs, 65 percent, fourth-highest of the 32 teams this week. Last week Arizona did it on 11 of 16, 69 percent, also fourth. Across all of last season this offense saw a light box on 45 percent of designed runs. Two opponents, the same choice: give the Chargers room on the ground. This time they used more of it, a hundred 25 yards on 31 designed runs, 4.0 a carry, thirteenth of 32, after three and a quarter and 20-ninth last week. The Recap's value figure for the run game was the lowest of any team so far that week, and most of it came on three plays, two of them against a six-man box.

On defense the number that repeated is not a good one. 24 of Kirk Cousins's 29 throws were catchable, 83 percent, the fourth-highest catchable rate any defense allowed this week. Last week Arizona's were 84 percent, fifth-highest. Across last season, throws against this defense were catchable 68 percent of the time. Two games, 15 16 points above last season, both in the top five. A catchable rate is charted on the throw, so read it as two quarterbacks putting the ball where it could be caught against this defense, not as a verdict on the defenders. The Raiders dropped four of those 24, the second-highest drop rate this week, which kept the damage down. Four of 29 were contested, 14 percent, twelfth, a little above last season's 11. One was interception-worthy, tied with the Jets for ninth, and Cousins threw one interception, Cam Hart's.

The front sent more people than last year, and Cousins still stayed put. Five or more pass rushers on nine of 32 dropbacks, 28 percent, tied with the Jets for eighteenth, up from 23 percent last week and 20 across last season. Cousins left the pocket on two of his 32 dropbacks. Against the run the Chargers showed six or fewer in the box on 15 of 25 designed runs, 60 percent, tied with Dallas and Tennessee for seventh, close to last season's 65. Those 25 runs gained 56 yards. Only three defenses allowed less per designed run this week, and Baltimore matched it.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Omarion Hampton led the Chargers with 16.5: 23 carries for 94 and a touchdown, +2 catches for 21. Oronde Gadsden the Second caught both of his targets for 18 and a touchdown, 8.8. Herbert, 7.9, 15 of 27 for a hundred 92, one touchdown and two interceptions. Tre Harris one catch on three targets for 53. Ladd McConkey three for three and 35. Quentin Johnston one catch on five targets for seven. For the Raiders, Tre Tucker had 20.4 on five catches for a hundred 19 and a touchdown, Kirk Cousins 20.2 on 19 of 29 for 253 three touchdowns, and Cody White 15.4 on two catches, both touchdowns.

A word on the comparison, because it has not changed. Until Week 4 this show sets the Chargers against last season, a different roster and a year older, not against their own recent weeks. That tells you what was unusual about Sunday, not what is settled about this team. Last week is one game and gets treated like one.

So, what repeats. Pointing the same way twice: the motion, top three both weeks and 20-plus points above last year; the light boxes on Chargers runs, fourth-highest both weeks against 45 percent last season; Herbert out of the pocket, top five both weeks; and throws against this defense catchable at a top-five rate both weeks, 15 16 points above last year. Reversed: play-action, from six of seven to three of six; contested throws, from seven to one; drops, from none to three. Two games do not settle any of them.

The thread, for anyone joining now. The Recap had last season at 11 six, with the run defense fourth in the league by expected points per play and the passing game 20-sixth. This season they lost to Arizona 26 to 14 at home, then to the Raiders 26 to 14 at home. Oh and two. What goes in the notebook: the motion looks like the offense now. Two defenses have chosen to give this run game a light box, and the answer so far is 20-ninth and then thirteenth per designed run. When the Chargers line up against the Bills, watch how many defenders stand in the box on the first few runs; if the third defense makes the same choice, it is no longer a game plan, it is a scouting report.

That's your Chargers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._