Chargers 16, Bills 24 — Week 3: Forced Five Turnovers and Lost

Third and five at the Buffalo 23, 13 38 left in the game, the Chargers up 13 to 10. On the first snap of the fourth quarter the defense had taken the ball away for the fifth time, a strip-sack of Josh Allen ruled down by contact on the field and overturned when the Chargers challenged, and the offense had started at the Buffalo 28. Justin Herbert threw deep middle for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Gardner-Johnson intercepted it at the Buffalo one and brought it back 41 yards. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that throw was −5.8. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it cost 18 points: the Chargers had been at 75 percent before the snap. Buffalo drove 58 yards for its first lead of the day, scored again, and won 24 to 16. The Chargers led for about 39 minutes, did not trail until seven 37 remained, and are oh and three.

The turnover margin was +4, and that is the part that should not lose. Five takeaways is the most of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, and it ties Carolina in Week 2 for the most in any of the 92 team games this season. Counting every turnover, special teams included, only two of those 92 games have finished +4 or better: Carolina's, which it won, and this one. Henley recovered James Cook's fumble on Buffalo's first snap at the Buffalo 47, and that became the only touchdown, Herbert to Mitchell for one yard on third and one. Smith's first interception gave the offense the ball at the Buffalo 43, and the drive reached first and 10 at the 20 and ran three times for seven yards before a field goal. Smith's second started a drive of 10 pass and rush plays at the Chargers' own 10 that ended in a 45-yard field goal wide left, up 10 to nothing. Still's forced fumble on Dalton Kincaid led to a punt. The strip-sack led to the interception. 10 points from five takeaways, three of them starting in Buffalo territory.

The red zone is where the rest of it went. 15 snaps inside the Buffalo 20, one touchdown: 20-fourth of the 27 teams that have played this week and reached it. The opening drive of the second half ran until six 15 of the third quarter, from the Chargers' 28 to first and goal at the six. Gardner-Johnson intercepted in the end zone, a defensive holding call on Buffalo wiped it out and moved the ball to the three, and Hampton ran to the one. Then a false start, a pass for no gain back at the six, another false start, and on third and 11 Harris caught it at the three. Dicker kicked from 21 yards, 13 to 10. The last drive reached first and 10 at the 18 with two 28 left, down 11; a sack-fumble returned 87 yards for a Buffalo touchdown was reversed on review to an incompletion, and the drive still ended in a 33-yard field goal.

The passing game ran 36 pass plays, a count that includes two sacks, for −6.4 expected points and 217 yards net of sacks, with one touchdown and the interception. 36 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. By expected points per play that is 20-second of the 28 teams so far this week. At the rate this passing game played over the first two weeks, those same 36 plays would have been worth about −4. At last season's rate, when it ranked 20-sixth, about −2. Third down was six of 15. The best of it: third and 15 at the Buffalo 25, nine 31 left in the third quarter, tied at 10, Herbert deep left to Ladd McConkey for 19 yards to the six, +2.9 expected points and 11 points of win probability.

The run game opens on its success rate, because a week ago it had the worst rushing game any team has had this season by total expected points. 61 percent of 28 rush plays were successful, third of the 28 teams that have played this week, worth +1.8 expected points and 131 yards. At the rate of the first two weeks, these 28 carries would have been worth about −12. One honest check: Buffalo's run defense was in the league's bottom three last season, and at the rate it allowed then, 28 carries would have been worth about +3. The Chargers got roughly what that run defense usually gave up.

The pass defense had its best game of the three. 30 Buffalo pass plays, including four sacks, were worth −5.4 expected points to the Bills, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. By expected points per play that is sixth of the 28 teams so far this week, after 20-fourth in Week 1 and twentieth in Week 2. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those 30 plays would have been worth about +6 and a half; at the rate Buffalo's own passing game ran over its first two weeks, about +14. 174 passing yards net of sacks, and no touchdown passes. The one completion that hurt: first and 10 at the Chargers' 38, 26 seconds left in the half, up 10 to three, Allen deep right to Keon Coleman for 37 to the one, and Allen scored from the one on the next snap to make it 10 to 10 at the half.

The run defense is the unit that turned. A week after the third-best run defense game in the league this season, −11 and a half against the Raiders, it allowed 32 Buffalo rush plays 177 yards, three touchdowns and +4.1 expected points. That is the third-worst total of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate it allowed over the first two weeks, those carries would have been worth about −6; at last season's rate, when it ranked in the league's top five, about −2. 15 of those runs came in the fourth quarter, for 97 yards. The longest decided it: fourth and 10 at the Chargers' 45 with five 14 left, down 17 to 13, Herbert's throw to Vidal fell incomplete, and on the second play after, Cook went 23 yards to the 19. Four snaps later Cook scored, and Buffalo led by 11.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season the Chargers went 11 six on a defense that ranked ninth against the pass and in the top five against the run, with a top-four third-down offense, a run game near the middle of the league and a passing game 20-sixth by expected points per play. Week 1 was a 26 to 14 loss at home to Arizona, with the run game 30-first in the league by expected points per play, two giveaways and no takeaways. Week 2 was another 26 to 14 loss at home, to Las Vegas, the run game 30-first again by that per-play measure and three more giveaways. After two weeks the story was turnovers and a run game that could not move. Sunday reversed both, +4 in turnovers and a run game near the top of the week, and the Chargers lost anyway, because the passing game stayed under last season's 20-sixth-ranked rate and 15 red-zone snaps produced one touchdown. Three games do not settle a season. They do move the question from ball security to what happens inside the 20.

The Chargers are at Seattle on Sunday afternoon, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._