Chargers, Week 3 — What Repeats: Heavier Box, Better Run Game

Last week this show said to watch the box on the first few Chargers runs, because two defenses in a row had given this run game room. Buffalo did not. The Bills showed six or fewer defenders in the box on nine of 26 designed runs. That is 35 percent, nineteenth of the 32 offenses this week, and it is the fewest light boxes the Chargers have seen this season by a wide margin. Arizona gave them 69 percent, the Raiders 65. Across all of last season it was 45. So the third defense made the opposite choice, and the run game had its best day per carry anyway. 26 designed runs went for a hundred 22 yards, 4.7 a carry, tenth in the league this week. That is up from three and a quarter in Week 1 and 4.0 in Week 2, both against lighter boxes, and above the 3.9 this offense averaged per designed run last season. Read it the honest way: the room went away and the yards went up. That is the first sign this season that this run game can make some of its own, with the caveat that Buffalo's run defense was in the league's bottom three last season.

The passing game is the other end of the charting, and it is a number nobody in the league matched. Justin Herbert threw 34 passes, and charters marked five of them interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. That is 15 percent of his throws, the highest rate of any offense in Week 3. New England was next at 13. Across all of last season Herbert put 17 of those in the air on 512 throws, about three percent. The first two weeks it was one each, on 27 throws apiece. The box score shows one interception, Gardner-Johnson's at the one-yard line, and the Recap already told you what that one cost. The charting shows five throws that could have gone the same way. That gap is the reason this show exists. One interception reads like an ordinary afternoon, and five interception-worthy balls is the most careless passing day any offense had this week.

And it was not traffic. Not one of the 34 throws was charted contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, the only offense in the league at zero this week. In Week 1 Arizona contested seven of 27, second-most in the league; the Raiders contested one; Buffalo, none. 23 of the 34 were catchable, 68 percent, nineteenth, against Herbert's 72 percent or so across last season. Two of those 23 were dropped, nine percent, eighth-highest. So the receivers were not being crowded, the ball reached them a little less often than usual, and when it missed, it missed toward the defense. Play-action did not repeat last week's fade. Eight throws off the fake went five for 59 yards, a little over seven a throw. The 26 without it went 15 for a hundred 67, closer to six. The fake was called on nine of 38 dropbacks, 24 percent, nineteenth, within a point of last season's rate.

Before the snap, the offense still looks like the one from the first two weeks, just a little less so. Motion on 47 of 85 charted plays, 55 percent, sixth in the league, after 67 65 percent, second and third. Still 13 points above last season's 42. And Herbert left the pocket less. Nine of 38 dropbacks, including two scrambles, had him outside it, 24 percent, tenth, after fourth and fifth in the first two weeks. Buffalo sent five or more pass rushers on 11 of 38 dropbacks, 29 percent, the middle of the league, and the most this offense has faced in three weeks and still under last season's 30. Two sacks, neither charted as Herbert's fault.

On defense, the number that had repeated twice stopped. 18 of Josh Allen's 26 throws were charted catchable, 69 percent, the middle of the 32 defenses. The first two weeks, opposing quarterbacks were at 84 83 percent against this defense, top five both times. 69 is a point above last season's 68, so what broke was the two-week pattern, not the yardstick. Two of Allen's throws were charted interception-worthy, eight percent, the sixth-highest rate any defense forced this week, and Allen threw two interceptions, both to Smith. Five or more rushers went on seven of 31 dropbacks, 23 percent, in the bottom half of the league, about where this defense has been all three weeks. Allen was outside the pocket on five of 31 dropbacks, one of them a scramble, against about a quarter of his dropbacks last season. Four sacks, one of them charted as his fault.

The run defense is where the game went, and the box count does not explain it. The Chargers showed six or fewer in the box on 17 of Buffalo's 31 designed runs, 55 percent, tenth-highest this week. That is about the look they gave Arizona and the Raiders, 57 60 percent, and a little under the 65 they showed all of last season. Those 31 designed runs went for a hundred 69 yards, 5.5 a carry. Only Cincinnati and Green Bay allowed more per designed run this week. The first two weeks it was 3.6, then 2.2, the fourth-best in the league that week. Last season this defense allowed 4.1. Nearly the same box as a week ago, more than double the yards, and James Cook had 24 carries for a hundred 54 of them.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Herbert, 12.7: 20 of 34 for 226, a touchdown and the interception, +4 carries for 17. Mitchell, 12.2, on eight carries for 52 three catches for −5 yards, one of them the one-yard touchdown. Tre Harris caught six of seven targets for 76, 10.6. Ladd McConkey four of five for 66. Hampton 5.6, 15 carries for 56. Quentin Johnston three catches on six targets for 40. For Buffalo, Cook had 19.4 on the hundred 54 yards and a touchdown, and Allen 17 on 16 of 26 for 204, two interceptions and two rushing scores.

One last time on the yardstick. Every "last season" above is the 2025 Chargers, a different roster, and this is the final week the show compares to it. From here the comparison becomes this team's own season.

For anyone joining now. The Chargers went 11 six last season on a defense in the top five against the run, with a passing game 20-sixth by expected points per play. This season they lost at home to Arizona 26 to 14, at home to the Raiders 26 to 14, and at Buffalo 24 to 16. Oh and three. Last week's notebook had four lines. The motion held, sixth in the league and still well above last year. The light boxes broke, and that was the test we set: the third defense went heavier and the run game gained more per carry than it had against either soft look. Herbert out of the pocket slipped from top five to tenth. And the catchable rate against this defense, top five two weeks running, fell to the middle of the league. Two new lines go in: five interception-worthy throws in 34, the highest rate of the week, and a run defense that showed about the same box it has shown all season and gave up five and a half a carry. Next, at Seattle. Watch the ball, not the box. Whether the interception-worthy count goes back to one decides whether Sunday was a day or a direction.

That's your Chargers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._