Chargers 23, Seahawks 30 — Week 4: Two More Picks, Now Oh and Four

One oh three left in the fourth quarter, the Chargers down 30 to 23, first and 10 at their own 29 in the no-huddle. 71 yards to go. Justin Herbert was sacked by Nwosu at the 20, the ball came loose, and Hall recovered for Seattle. By expected points added, which measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was −4.4. It also cost seven points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest swing on any snap from scrimmage in the game. Seattle knelt twice. The Chargers lost 30 to 23 in Seattle and are oh and four.

The turnover margin was −2, three giveaways on offense to one takeaway, and it started on the first snap of the game. Herbert threw short middle for Oronde Gadsden, and Thomas intercepted at the Chargers' 45. The defense got it straight back when Tuipulotu intercepted Sam Darnold on Seattle's first snap, and that became Dicker's 40-yard field goal and the Chargers' only lead. The second interception came with a minute 29 left in the half, down 13 to three, in the no-huddle: short right for Ladd McConkey, intercepted by Jones at the Chargers' 40 and returned to the 20. −4.8 expected points and seven points of win probability, and two snaps later Seattle led 20 to three.

The passing game opens on the first half, because that is where the game went. Herbert completed five of 14 for 36 yards before halftime, then 14 of 17 for a hundred 53 after it, a second half that started 20 to six. For the day, 36 pass plays, four of them sacks, were worth −8.6 expected points, about minus point two a play. Over the first three weeks this passing game ran at minus point one, and by that rate this was its worst game of the four. 36 percent of the pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and third down was five of 15. Seattle sent five or more rushers on 10 of 41 dropbacks, 24 percent, about the share this offense had seen over the first three weeks, and still got to Herbert four times. Before the snap, the motion that defined this offense faded: 41 of 92 charted plays, 45 percent, eighteenth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 62 percent over the first three weeks. Three of the 22 catchable balls were dropped, 14 percent, against eight and a half percent before Sunday. The best of it: fourth and seven at the Chargers' 10, three 28 left, down 30 to 20, Herbert deep right to Quentin Johnston for 44 yards to the Seattle 46. +4.3 expected points, the most valuable Chargers play of the day, and the drive ended in Dicker's 36-yard field goal with two 17 left.

The run game had its best day of the season, measured per play. 32 rush plays went for a hundred 47 yards, a touchdown and +2.8 expected points, about plus point one a play, against minus point three over the first three weeks. 44 percent were successful. It came against a heavier box for a second straight week. Seattle showed six or fewer defenders on 10 of 27 designed runs, 37 percent, eighteenth of the 30 charted offenses in how often they saw a light box, after 55 percent over the first three weeks. The designed runs still gained 4.1 yards a carry, the same as over those first three weeks. Herbert's five scrambles added 37 yards, among them 26 on third and eight with 27 seconds left in the half, which set up Dicker's 39-yard field goal. The fourth-quarter touchdown drive was the run game at its best, down 30 to 13: Keaton Mitchell for eight and then 20, Omarion Hampton for six on third and three, 11 to the six, and two for the touchdown on third and two. The designed runs split 10 to Mitchell, nine to Hampton and five to Kimani Vidal.

The pass defense had its best game of the season by expected points per play. Seattle's 25 pass plays, three of them sacks, were worth −5.2 expected points to Seattle, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. That is about minus point two a play, after this defense allowed plus point one a play over the first three weeks. The Chargers sent five or more rushers on nine of 26 dropbacks, 35 percent, twelfth of the 30 charted defenses this week, up from 24 and a half percent over the first three weeks. 15 of Darnold's 22 throws were charted catchable, 68 percent, after 79 percent by opposing passers over the first three weeks. Seattle went three of 12 on third down. The one that got away: third and 16 at the Seattle 29, eight 55 left in the second quarter, down seven to three, Darnold deep right to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 28 yards and nine points of win probability to Seattle. Four snaps later Seattle scored.

The run defense was close to its form, a shade worse. 31 Seattle rush plays went for a hundred 40 yards, two touchdowns and +0.2 expected points, about even a play, against minus point one allowed over the first three weeks. Only about a third of them were successful plays. The Chargers showed a light box on 15 of Seattle's 30 designed runs, 50 percent, against 57 over the first three weeks, and Seattle gained 4.4 a designed run, against 3.9 this defense allowed before Sunday. The two runs that cost the most were the touchdowns: Rashid Shaheed around left end from the 28 in the second quarter, and Emanuel Wilson from the eight with 47 seconds left in the half.

The turning point came on special teams, and the turnover count does not include it. Up three to nothing in the first quarter, the defense had forced a three-and-out that ended in an intentional grounding call on Darnold. Derius Davis dropped the punt at the Chargers' 25, and Seattle recovered at the 23. On the next snap Darnold threw short right to Wilson behind the line, and Wilson went 28 yards after the catch for the touchdown. The Chargers did not lead again. Add the Jones interception, and 14 Seattle points came within two snaps of a Chargers giveaway in a game decided by seven.

Last week's notebook asked one question: whether Herbert's interception-worthy throws, a ball a defender should have caught, would go back to one, because that would decide whether five in Buffalo was a day or a direction. They did not go back to one. Two of the Chargers' 32 throws were charted interception-worthy, six percent, the fourth-highest rate of the 30 charted offenses this week, and Herbert threw two interceptions. Over four games he has nine interception-worthy throws and six interceptions. That reads like a direction. The box line held too: a second straight defense played this run game heavy, and the run game gained as much per designed run as it had over the first three weeks. So the notebook for next week is the first half. Five of 14 for 36 yards before halftime put the Chargers down 14, and an oh-and-four team does not get many second halves like that one.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Hampton, 12.3: nine carries for 45 and the touchdown, two catches for eight. Vidal, 10.6, on five carries for 25 two catches for 11, one of them the nine-yard touchdown in the third quarter. Herbert, 9.6: 19 of 31 for a hundred 89, a touchdown and two interceptions, +6 runs for 40. Mitchell 8.8, on 10 carries for 39 five catches for 24. Tre Harris caught three of five for 60, 7.5.

That's your Chargers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._