Chargers 17, Broncos 23 — Week 5: Five Sacks, Three Giveaways

The Chargers lost 23-17 to Denver at home on Sunday and fell to 0-5, and they lost it from a 17-10 lead in the fourth quarter. The snap that decided it came with the game tied 17-17 and 8:06 left: second and 10 at their own 32, Zach Allen sacked Justin Herbert at the 24, the ball came loose and Que Robinson recovered for Denver at the 23. That play was worth -5.8 expected points added (EPA), what a snap is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. It also cost 20.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Denver kicked a 19-yard field goal on that drive and never trailed again.

The passing game was Muffed, and EPA per play says how badly. Its 28 pass plays were worth -16.0 EPA, -0.57 a play, against -0.16 through Week 4, and only 32.1% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Herbert went 14 of 24 for 121 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked five times, twice by Nik Bonitto. The giveaways started on the first possession: third and 10 at his own 17, Charlie Kolar caught a short throw for 19 yards, Talanoa Hufanga forced the fumble and Brandon Jones recovered at the Chargers' 40. On Denver's second snap Bo Nix hit Evan Engram for 34 yards to the 5, and J.K. Dobbins scored.

The charting puts the blame on the pocket, not the throws. 16 of Herbert's 23 charted throws were catchable, 69.6%, against his own 68.1% through Week 4, and one was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 4.3% after 7.6%. None of the five sacks was charted as his fault, after four through Week 4. Denver sent five or more pass rushers on 9 of 31 dropbacks, 29%, against the 24.1% this offense saw through Week 4. Four of the 23 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 17.4% against 8.4%.

The run game struggled, and success rate shows it: 23.5% of 34 rush plays gained what the situation asked for. They were worth -8.7 EPA, -0.25 a play against -0.16 through Week 4, for 155 yards. Denver loaded the box, showing six or fewer defenders on 10 of 31 designed runs, 32.3%, against 50% through Week 4, and those 31 runs gained 125 yards. Omarion Hampton ran 14 times for 33. The yards came in bursts. Herbert ran around right end for 23 on third and 7 at the Denver 30, and Hayden Rucci caught a 7-yard touchdown two snaps later to tie it 10-10. Kimani Vidal ran 8 times for 57, 42 of them on one snap.

The pass defense did its job, and third down tells it: Denver converted 1 of 12. Its 28 pass plays were worth -6.5 EPA, -0.23 a play, against +0.04 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction. Only 25% were successful. Nix completed 16 of 27 for 123 yards and a touchdown, with 16 of 27 throws catchable, 59.3%, against the 77.2% opponents managed through Week 4. The Chargers sent five or more on 9 of 29 dropbacks, 31%, up from 26.6%, and Akheem Mesidor had the one sack. Up 17-10 early in the fourth, third and 7 at the Chargers' 24, Nix threw incomplete short middle with Del'Shawn Phillips credited with a hit, and Wil Lutz missed the 42-yard try wide left.

The run defense held Denver's backs down and took the ball back once. Denver's 28 designed runs gained 105 yards, with the Chargers showing six or fewer in the box on 18 of them, 64.3%, against 55.2% through Week 4. All 29 rush plays were worth -9.0 EPA, -0.31 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 4, though 41.4% were successful. Most of that came on one snap. Tied 10-10 with 1:15 left in the third, Nix scrambled up the middle, Mesidor and Tuli Tuipulotu brought him down, and Tuipulotu forced the fumble and recovered it at the Denver 42: -5.7 EPA for Denver. On the next snap Vidal ran off left tackle 42 yards for the touchdown and a 17-10 lead. Dobbins still ran 18 times for 68 yards and the opening touchdown.

The game turned between 10:33 and 8:06 of the fourth quarter. Up 17-10, fourth and 1 at their own 41, the Chargers went for it, and Robinson stopped Herbert at right guard for no gain: -3.9 EPA and 7 points of win probability. Denver took over at the Chargers' 41, and Nix found Courtland Sutton for a 5-yard touchdown to tie it. On the second snap after the kickoff, Allen's strip-sack handed Denver the ball at the 23. Down 20-17 with 3:26 left, fourth and 6 at his own 31, Herbert threw short right for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jones intercepted at the 41, -2.9 EPA. 13 drives produced two touchdowns, one field goal, three turnovers and a turnover on downs.

The scheme moved more and optioned less. Pre-snap motion came on 53 of 82 charted plays, 64.6%, against 57.4% through Week 4. There were no run-pass options, after 10. Play-action fell to 7 of 31 dropbacks, 22.6%, from 27.6%, and Herbert completed 2 of 5 of those throws for 13 yards. He left the pocket 10 times on 31 dropbacks, after 48 on 144 through Week 4.

Last week's question was the first half, and it was not fixed. The Chargers had 3 points at halftime and trailed 10-3, with the Kolar fumble and a Bonitto sack on third and 9 near midfield in it; the third quarter then brought 14 points. The interception-worthy throws did come down, to one in 23. The new line in the notebook is the protection: five sacks, two forced fumbles, none charted on the quarterback. The one to watch next: whether the sacks come down, and whether the run game gets above a 23.5% success rate against another heavy box.

That's your Chargers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._