Chargers 6, Chiefs 22 — Week 6: 57 Yards to the 1, Then a Field Goal

The Chargers lost 22-6 at Kansas City and did not score a touchdown. They ran 10 snaps inside the Chiefs' 20 and came away with two Cameron Dicker field goals, from 23 and 30 yards. They trailed 19-3 at halftime. Of their 11 drives, two ended in turnovers, two on downs and four in three-and-outs.

The passing game was Muffed, and success rate shows it first: only 26.8% of 41 pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. They were worth -16.7 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth: -0.41 a play, against -0.23 through Week 5. Justin Herbert completed 22 of 37 for 204 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked four times. KeAndre Lambert-Smith drew 9 targets and caught 5 for 32. The one big gain went to waste. Down 19-3 early in the third, third and 12 at their own 42, Herbert threw deep left to Quentin Johnston for 57 yards to the Kansas City 1, +6.2 EPA. A holding call on Jake Slaughter moved them back to the 11, the next three throws were a 1-yard loss and two incompletions, and Dicker kicked from 30.

The run game stayed below zero but beat its own standard, and EPA per play is the measure: 22 rush plays were worth -2.9, -0.13 a play against -0.18 through Week 5, for 73 yards and a 27.3% success rate. Omarion Hampton ran 7 times for 18, Kimani Vidal 7 for 21, and Herbert 5 for 26.

The pass defense allowed efficiency but no touchdowns, and the success rate it allowed leads: 56.7% of the Chiefs' 30 pass plays succeeded. They were worth +2.8 EPA, +0.09 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 5; on defense, positive is the bad direction. Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 30 for 272 yards and was not sacked, and Xavier Worthy caught all 7 of his targets for 73. Its best snap came in the second quarter, down 9-3: third and 2 at the Chargers' 2, Mahomes threw short right for Andrew Armstrong, Teair Tart got to him, and Cam Hart intercepted in the end zone for a touchback. That snap was worth -5.9 EPA to the Chiefs and 13.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Kansas City scored one touchdown on 14 red-zone snaps, and the Chargers got off the field on 7 of 10 third downs.

The run defense gave up both touchdowns, and EPA per play shows how far off its standard it played: the Chiefs' 25 rush plays were worth +1.7, +0.07 a play against -0.10 allowed through Week 5, for 153 yards; 48% succeeded. Kenneth Walker III ran 19 times for 128 yards, and his first touchdown came on third and 1, 33 yards up the middle. The answer came at the goal line in the third, down 19-6: fourth and 1 at the Chargers' 1, Justin Eboigbe and Marlowe Wax stopped Walker at left guard for no gain, -4.0 EPA to Kansas City.

The game turned with 10:59 left in the second quarter, down 9-3, on a drive that had reached the Kansas City 42. Second and 3: Herbert threw short right for Lambert-Smith, Jack Cochrane intercepted at the 35 and returned it 48 yards to the Chargers' 17. That snap was worth -7.9 EPA and 15.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Hart's interception kept it from costing points, but the Chiefs scored on their next two drives, a Walker touchdown and a 50-yard Harrison Butker field goal with 7 seconds left in the half. The last chance went with 9:50 left, down 19-6: third and 1 at the Kansas City 37, Lambert-Smith caught a short throw for a yard, L'Jarius Sneed forced the fumble and Drue Tranquill recovered, -4.8 EPA.

Last week's notebook asked whether the sacks would come down and whether the run game could raise its success rate. Both moved a little: Herbert was sacked four times after five against Denver, and the run game succeeded on 27.3% of its rush plays, above last week's mark. The one to watch next is the red zone: 10 snaps inside the 20, no touchdowns, and 5 of 16 third downs converted.

That's your Chargers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Chargers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._