Raiders, Week 1 — What Repeats: Three Light Boxes All Day

Miami showed Las Vegas a light box — six or fewer defenders — on three of 33 designed runs on Sunday. That is nine percent, the lowest share any offense in the league saw in Week 1, with the league median at 47. The average box the Raiders ran into held 7.4 defenders. Across all of last season this offense saw a light box on 66 percent of its designed runs, 225 of 342. So Miami loaded the box on 30 of 33 designed runs, and Las Vegas ran those 33 for a hundred and 33 yards anyway. Ashton Jeanty's settled line was 23 carries for a hundred and two. The Recap had the fourth quarter, eight runs for nothing. The charting does not split the box by quarter; what it carries is the whole-game share, and the whole-game share was heavy.

Kirk Cousins threw 30 passes and two were charted interception-worthy — balls a defender should have caught — and he threw two interceptions; the charting does not say whether those were the same two balls. Two of 30 is just under seven percent, the fifth-highest interception-worthy rate of any offense in the league this week, against a league median of 3.4. Across all of last season this offense's throws, thrown by someone else, went up for grabs three percent of the time, 17 on 517. Cousins himself has no 2025 charting in this pack, so there is nothing to compare him to yet; the comparison is to the seat, not the man. The rest of his ball charting was clean. 22 of the 30 throws were catchable, 73 percent, twelfth in the league this week and a shade above this offense's 72 last year. Only two of 30 were contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — against 13 percent last season, so he threw into less traffic than this offense did a year ago. His receivers dropped one of the 22 catchable balls. No throwaways, no sacks, none charted as his fault. Eight of his 30 throws came off play-action and six were caught for 49 yards; the other 22 produced 15 completions and a hundred and 11.

Las Vegas sent five or more rushers on six of Miami's 37 dropbacks, 16 percent — 20-sixth of the 32 defenses this week, well under the league median of 27 and under this defense's own 22 percent across last season. 4.1 rushers per dropback on average. The Recap had the five sacks; the charting says Las Vegas sent five or more rushers on only six dropbacks all game, and that two of the five sacks were charted as the quarterback's fault. 15 of Malik Willis's 27 throws were catchable, 56 percent, when opponents throwing at Las Vegas last year were catchable 73 percent of the time. Four of the 27 were contested. One was interception-worthy. Willis threw one interception, and the charting does not say whether it was that ball. And against Miami's 13 designed runs the Raiders showed a light box twice, 15 percent, against 43 percent last year — so both defenses loaded up against the run, and Miami ran 13 times into it for 35 yards.

Play-action on nine of 31 dropbacks, 29 percent, tied for eleventh-highest in the league this week with the Vikings, league median 21, up from 25 percent across last season. The no-huddle nearly disappeared: under two percent of snaps against nine percent a year ago. Motion on 37 of 82 charted plays, 45 percent, seventeenth in the league and right on the median, up a little from 41. Screens on three of 31 dropbacks, a touch above last year's eight percent. Miami sent five or more rushers on 10 of Las Vegas's 31 dropbacks, 32 percent, and did not get him down once.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Ashton Jeanty led everyone on the field with 29.7 — 23 carries for a hundred and two, +6 catches on six targets for 45 and both of his touchdowns through the air. Cousins, 13.8: 21 of 30 for a hundred and 60, three touchdowns, two interceptions. Jack Bech three catches on four targets for 23 and the opening score, 9.8. Michael Mayer six of seven targets for 32, Jalen Nailor three of five for 27, Mike Washington Junior seven carries for 41. For Miami, Malik Willis went 15 of 27 for 220 with no touchdowns and the interception, +6 carries for 39 and their only touchdown, 16.7. Caleb Douglas caught five of seven targets for 94. De'Von Achane, 11 carries for 36 four catches for 30 on five targets, 8.6. Malik Washington three of eight targets for 53.

A word on what this show is doing, because its name promises something it cannot deliver yet. There is no in-season baseline after one game. Every comparison above is to last season — a different roster, a year older, and at quarterback a different job entirely. Last season tells you what was unusual about Sunday, which is real and useful, and it does not tell you what is true about this team. The version of this show that measures Las Vegas against its own recent weeks starts working around Week 4. Until then, every time we say "last year," that is the whole of the comparison.

The thread starts here. The Recap said what last season was: three and 14, the worst offense in the league by expected points per play, thirtieth through the air and 30-second on the ground, a defense that finished twentieth. Two questions go in the notebook. Whether other defenses load the box like this — on Sunday the throws scored three times inside the 22 were intercepted outside it. And whether the rush keeps getting home without five or more rushers, because five or more on 16 percent of dropbacks alongside five sacks is either a very good front or one afternoon against one quarterback.

That's your Raiders — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._