Raiders 26, Chargers 14 — Week 2: Three Turnovers Forced, Two and Oh

Three 52 left in the fourth quarter, Las Vegas up 17 to 14, and the Raiders had just handed the Chargers a first down. It was fourth and one at the Los Angeles 46, the Chargers lined up to go for it, and Las Vegas was flagged for too many men on the field. First and 10 at the Raiders' 48, and by the win probability model a game that had been 69 percent Raiders was a coin flip. On the very next snap Omarion Hampton ran up the middle for two yards, Nakobe Dean knocked the ball out, and Jeremy Chinn picked it up at the Las Vegas 41 and ran it 43 yards to the Chargers' 16. 35 points of win probability on one play, the biggest swing of the game; the next-largest was 18. Three plays later Kirk Cousins hit Cody White for 11 yards on third and five, and it was 24 to 14. Las Vegas won 26 to 14 on the road on Sunday, and a team that went three and 14 last season is two and oh.

Start with the run defense, because the number is strange and the strangeness is the story. Los Angeles ran 32 times for a hundred 27 yards, and that yardage ranks 20-first of the 28 teams that have played this week. By expected points added, those same 32 plays were worth −15.6. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. That is the best run-defense total of any team so far this week, and per play only Cincinnati was better. Three plays explain it. Dean's forced fumble alone was worth −7.4. Two aborted shotgun snaps, one on first and goal from the five and one on third and one, cost the Chargers about another 3.9 between them, and the Raiders earned neither. Without them the other 29 runs were worth about −4.3. And it tightened: 20 Chargers runs for 95 yards before halftime, 12 for 32 after it. At the rate this defense allowed runs last season, those 32 plays would have been worth about −1.

The pass defense is where the takeaways live. Las Vegas forced three turnovers, and of the 28 teams that have played this week only Carolina has forced more. Two were interceptions by Hezekiah Masses. The first came with the game scoreless: third and five from the Chargers' 22, three 26 left in the first quarter, Justin Herbert threw deep left for David Njoku, and Masses caught it at the Las Vegas 48 and returned it 29 yards to the Los Angeles 23. About 14 points of win probability. In all, 30 Los Angeles pass plays were worth −0.6 expected points, tenth so far this week per play, and the Chargers' completions gained a hundred 92 yards, tied for ninth-fewest. 53 of those yards came on one third-and-five throw to Tre Harris, the Chargers' only completion of 20 yards or more. On third down the defense got nine stops in 14 tries, eleventh so far this week. At the rate this pass defense allowed last season, when it ranked 20-second, those 30 plays would have been worth about +2.3 to the offense.

The passing game did its work in chunks. 31 pass plays produced just about +6 expected points, eleventh per play of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the completions gained 253 yards, which ranks eighth. Four pass plays gained 20 yards or more, a hundred 29 in all, and were worth about +9 between them. The other 27 pass plays, two sacks included, were worth about −3. One was the game's first score: first and 10 at the Chargers' 40, no huddle, Cousins deep left to Tre Tucker for 40 yards and the touchdown, 11 57 left in the second quarter. Another was Tucker again, 42 yards from the Las Vegas 16 with 31 seconds left in the half, and it turned into Matt Gay's 59-yard field goal with eight seconds left, 10 to seven. The one interception was costly: second and five at the Los Angeles 32 on the Raiders' first drive, deep left for Tucker, and Cam Hart picked it off at the 15. −13 points of win probability. For the comparison: at the rate this offense passed last season, when it ranked 20-ninth, the same 31 plays would have been worth about −5.7.

The run game is the part of a two-and-oh start that is not working. 19 percent of the Raiders' rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, and of the 28 teams that have played this week only Houston was lower. 26 rush plays gained 60 yards, tied with Houston for second-fewest so far, with only Cleveland behind them, and they were worth −11.5 expected points. 19 of the 26 gained three yards or fewer, and the longest went nine. The sharpest example came after Masses' first interception. Jack Bech caught a pass for 16, fumbled, and recovered it himself at the three, a 20-yard play, and from first and goal Las Vegas ran Ashton Jeanty four straight times: −2, three, one, and on fourth and one from the one, a direct snap up the middle for no gain with 40 seconds left in the first quarter. For the day, seven red-zone runs gained seven yards, and both red-zone touchdowns were third-down throws to White, from the 13 on third and 10 and from the 11 on third and five. Last season this run game ranked last in the league, and at that rate these 26 plays would have been worth about −6.8.

One drive took the lead back. Down 14 to 10 in the third quarter, facing third and 10 at their own 26, the Raiders had a 28 percent chance of winning. Cousins threw to Tucker for nine. On fourth and one at their own 35, seven 41 left in the third, Las Vegas took a direct snap to Connor Heyward, who got exactly one yard. Seven snaps later, on third and 10 from the 13, Cousins found White for the touchdown, three 59 left in the quarter. 11 plays from their own 26, 17 to 14, and the Raiders did not trail again. The rest of third down was thin: four conversions in 13 tries, tied for 20-second so far this week, all four of them passes. Las Vegas led for about 31 minutes, was tied for about 23, and trailed for about six.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Last season the Raiders went three and 14. The passing offense ranked 20-ninth in the league by expected points per play, the run game 30-second, the pass defense 20-second, the run defense fourteenth, and the third-down defense thirtieth. In Week 1 they beat Miami 27 to 13 at home, and the figures said defense: seventh of 32 against the pass, fourth against the run, with an offense that ranked seventeenth passing and 20-fourth rushing. This week repeats that almost line for line. Of the 28 teams that have played so far: second against the run per play, tenth against the pass, eleventh passing, tied for 20-fourth rushing. 13 points allowed, then 14. So the contradiction with last season is the defense, and it has now shown up twice. The part that has not changed is the run game. Two games do not settle either one, and much of Sunday's run-defense number came from one forced fumble and two aborted Chargers snaps.

Las Vegas visits New Orleans next Sunday afternoon. The Saints allowed the third-most expected points per rush of the 28 teams that have played this week, so watch whether the run game's success rate finally moves.

That's your Raiders — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._