Raiders, Week 2 — What Repeats: Lighter Boxes, Shorter Runs

Last week the question for the Raiders' run game was what happens when a defense loads the box. Miami put six or fewer defenders in it on three of 33 designed runs, the lowest share in the league, and Las Vegas ran for a hundred 33 yards anyway. On Sunday the Chargers did the opposite. They showed six or fewer on 15 of the Raiders' 25 designed runs, 60 percent, tied with the Eagles and the Commanders for seventh-highest of the 32 teams this week. More room, and the runs went nowhere: 56 yards on those 25, 2.2 yards a carry, tied with the Saints for 20-eighth. Only three offenses gained less per designed run this week. A week ago the figure was 4.0, seventeenth. Across all of last season this offense saw a light box on 66 percent of its designed runs, so the Chargers gave Las Vegas about the look it saw all last year. Against a heavy box last week this run game was middling; against a light one this week it was near the bottom.

The passing game's charting points at the hands, not the arm. 24 of Kirk Cousins's 29 throws were charted catchable, 83 percent, fourth-highest of the 32 teams this week. Last week it was 73 percent, twelfth, and across last season this offense's throws, by other quarterbacks, were catchable 72 percent of the time. Then four of those 24 catchable balls were dropped. 17 percent, the second-highest drop rate in the league this week, behind only the Chargers on the same field. Last week the Raiders dropped one of 22; across all of last season, 19 of 374, about five percent. One throw was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, one of 29, tied with the Packers for ninth-highest of the 32 teams, and it was the one that was intercepted, Cam Hart's. Last week it was two interception-worthy throws on 30, fifth-highest in the league. Four of 29 were contested, 14 percent, twelfth, right about last season's 13.

Play-action paid this time. Cousins threw seven passes after a play fake and five were caught for 96 yards; his other 22 throws produced 14 completions and a hundred 57. Last week the fake bought 49 yards on eight throws. The call rate hardly moved: play-action on eight of 32 dropbacks, 25 percent, sixteenth of the 32 teams, the same as last season's 25 and a little under last week's 29. Motion is where the pre-snap picture has shifted. 42 of 79 charted plays, 53 percent, tenth-highest this week, after 45 percent last week and 41 across all of last season. No-huddle on three and a half percent of snaps, after under two last week, against nearly nine last season.

The steadiest thing about this offense through two games is where the quarterback throws from. Las Vegas left the pocket on two of 32 dropbacks on Sunday, six percent, tied with Green Bay for 20-eighth of 32; Cousins took every one of those dropbacks. Last week it was none of 31, the lowest in the league. Across all of last season this offense's quarterbacks were out of the pocket on 96 of 600 dropbacks, about one in six. The Recap counted two sacks, and neither was charted as the quarterback's fault; last week he was not sacked at all. Last season's offense had 27 sacks charted as the quarterback's fault. The Chargers sent five or more pass rushers on nine of 32 dropbacks, 28 percent, tied with Green Bay for eighteenth, right about the 27 percent this offense saw last season.

On defense, the repeat is in what opposing quarterbacks could complete. 17 of Justin Herbert's 27 throws were charted catchable, 63 percent, 20-eighth of 32, so only four defenses saw a less catchable afternoon. Last week Miami's throws were catchable 56 percent of the time, 20-ninth. Across all of last season, opponents throwing at this defense were catchable 73 percent of the time. Two games, both 10 points or more under last year, both near the bottom of the league. A catchable rate is charted on the throw, so this is not proof of a pass defense; it says that two straight quarterbacks have had trouble putting the ball where it could be caught against this one. It was not a crowded catch point: one of Herbert's 27 was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, under four percent, 20-eighth, after 15 percent last week. One throw was interception-worthy, seventh-highest in the league, and the charting says which: Hezekiah Masses's first interception was not marked interception-worthy, his second was.

The rush plan moved some; the box plan flipped. Las Vegas sent five or more on eight of 31 Chargers dropbacks, 26 percent, 20-third of 32, up from 16 percent last week and 22 across last season. Herbert left the pocket on nine of his 31 dropbacks, a few points above his rate across last regular season, a hundred 53 of 615, about one in four. Against Miami's designed runs last week the Raiders showed six or fewer in the box twice in 13, 15 percent, thirtieth. Against the Chargers it was 20 of 31, 65 percent, fourth-highest in the league and well above the 43 percent this defense showed last season. Those 31 designed runs gained a hundred 25 yards, 4.0 a carry, thirteenth-most allowed this week. The Recap's run-defense value rested on a forced fumble and two botched snaps; the charting adds that the Raiders showed a light box on most of the Chargers' designed runs.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Tre Tucker led everyone on the field with 20.4, five catches on seven targets for a hundred 19 and a touchdown. Cousins, 20.2: 19 of 29 for 253, three touchdowns and an interception. Cody White caught both of his targets for 24 yards and two touchdowns, 15.4. Ashton Jeanty, 21 carries for 48 four catches on seven targets for 15, 8.3. For the Chargers, Omarion Hampton had 16.5 on 23 carries for 94 and a touchdown, +2 catches for 21. Herbert went 15 of 27 for a hundred 92, a touchdown and two interceptions, 7.9.

The disclosure, reworded but still owed. Through Week 3 this show measures the Raiders against last season, not against their own recent weeks, and last season was a different roster with a different quarterback. That tells you what is unusual about a Sunday. It cannot yet tell you what is true about this team. Last week is one game, and we treat it as one game.

So what repeats. Two games now point the same way on a handful of things. Cousins stays in the pocket, none of 31 dropbacks and then six percent, against one in six last season, with no sack charged to him in either game. The offense motions more than it did a year ago, 45 and then 53 percent against 41. And opposing quarterbacks have been hard to catch, 56 and then 63 percent against 73. Other things reversed. The box the Raiders faced went from the heaviest in the league to tied for seventh in light-box share, and the run game went from seventeenth per designed run to tied for 20-eighth. The box they showed went from thirtieth to fourth. Two games do not settle any of it.

The thread, for anyone new. Last season the Raiders went three and 14, and the Recap had the run game 30-second and the passing game 20-ninth by expected points per play. They beat Miami 27 to 13 at home in Week 1 and won 26 to 14 at the Chargers on Sunday. Two notebook lines. The quarterback's pocket and the throws against this defense have held for two games. And the run game was seventeenth per designed run against a heavy box and tied for 20-eighth against a light one, so a lighter box has not come with more yards. Next time the Raiders line up against the Saints, count the defenders in the box before Jeanty's carries: if it is light and the runs still go nowhere, that is the story of this offense.

That's your Raiders — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._