Raiders 35, Saints 27 — Week 3: Down Eleven, Then Forced Four

Third and six at the New Orleans 31, eight oh three left in the game, the Saints down 28 to 27. Tyler Shough threw short left for Lance, and Masses intercepted at the New Orleans 43 and ran it back 35 yards to the eight. He lost the ball there, and Butler recovered it for Las Vegas at the four. 29 points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was −6 and a half for New Orleans. Three plays later Kirk Cousins hit Brock Bowers for four yards on third and four, and after the extra point it was 35 to 27. It stayed that way. The Raiders were down 27 to 16 with five 46 left in the third quarter, when the model gave the Saints an 87 percent chance. They scored the last 19 points, and New Orleans' last four possessions all ended in turnovers. Las Vegas is three and oh. Last season it won three games all year.

Start with the pass defense, because it is where the game turned, and its total tells a different story than its play-by-play. 44 New Orleans pass plays — that count includes sacks — were worth −7.1 expected points to the Saints. On defense a negative number is the good direction, and that total is fourth-best of the 28 teams that have played this week. But 55 percent of those plays were successful for the Saints, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and this defense allowed four touchdown passes and 233 net passing yards. Four plays made the difference. The four that ended in turnovers cost New Orleans 20.6 expected points; the other 40 were worth +13 and a half. For the baseline: at the rate this pass defense allowed over the first two weeks, 44 plays would have been worth about −7, right where it landed. At last season's rate, when it ranked 20-third, about +4.

The first of the four came on third and four at the Las Vegas 29, 13 oh four left, the Saints up 27 to 22. Koonce sacked Shough for a 10-yard loss and forced the fumble, and Maxx Crosby recovered at the Las Vegas 45. −5.7 expected points for New Orleans, 14 and a half points of win probability, and the Raiders went 55 yards for the lead. After the interception, the Saints drove to the Las Vegas 20, trailing by eight. Third and one, Koonce stopped Alvin Kamara for no gain. Fourth and one, two 21 left: Chinn sacked Shough for 10, the ball came out, and the Raiders' Johnson recovered at the 32. The last came with one oh two left, a one-yard catch fumbled away near the New Orleans 40 and recovered by Stokes at the 35.

The passing game opens on a total that has two baselines behind it. 36 pass plays, +10.9 expected points, 227 net passing yards, three touchdowns, three sacks taken, no interceptions, and 56 percent successful. That total is seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate Las Vegas passed over the first two weeks, those same 36 would have been worth about +4. At last season's rate, when the Raiders ranked in the bottom five of the league, about −7. All three touchdown passes were short, from the three, the four and the four, and the Raiders' longest completion went 22 yards. The drive that says what it did came at the end of the first half, tied at 13: third and eight from the Las Vegas 37 with one 10 left, Cousins to Bowers for 11; three more snaps and a penalty reached the New Orleans 25, a sack and a scramble backed them up, and on third and 14 from the 29 with 19 seconds left, Cousins found Bowers again for 15. Matt Gay kicked a 25-yard field goal with four seconds left for a 16 to 13 lead at the half.

Third down carried the offense. Seven of 12, 58 percent, tied for fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week, from an offense that ranked in the bottom five on third down last season. 10 drives before the kneel-downs: four touchdowns, three field goals, three punts, and no turnovers. The red zone was slower. The first half brought four trips inside the 21 touchdown; all three field goals came from those trips. The second half brought three touchdowns.

The run game opens on its success rate, because that is the honest number: 28 percent of 25 rush plays were successful, 20-fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week. 14 of the 25 gained three yards or fewer. The whole unit came to 115 yards and −2.3 expected points, and one snap was the exception. Second and one at the New Orleans 36, three 29 left in the third quarter, down 27 to 16: Washington went through the right guard and was ruled out of bounds at the one. Las Vegas challenged, the call was reversed, and it was a 36-yard touchdown. +3.3 expected points, nine points of win probability. The other 24 rush plays were worth −5.7. For the baseline, at the rate the Raiders ran over the first two weeks, 25 plays would have been worth about −6; at last season's rate, when they ranked last in the league, about −6 and a half.

The run defense is the unit that contradicted its first two weeks. 28 New Orleans rush plays, one of them a 36-yard Shough scramble, went for 148 yards and +2.4 expected points, and 54 percent of them were successful. That total is 20-fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate this run defense allowed over Weeks 1 and 2, those same 28 plays would have been worth about −10. At last season's rate, when it ranked around the middle of the league, about −1.

The Raiders nearly gave the game away on special teams first. Trailing 20 to 16 after a Saints touchdown with six 40 left in the third, Laube returned the kickoff from the two to the 30 and fumbled, and New Orleans recovered at the Las Vegas 32. −5.3 expected points, 12 points of win probability, and two plays later it was 27 to 16. The offense also failed on both of its two-point tries, after the Washington touchdown and after the go-ahead touchdown, and still won by eight.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Las Vegas went three and 14, with a passing game in the bottom five by expected points per play, a run game that ranked last, a pass defense 20-third, a run defense around the middle of the league, and a third-down defense thirtieth. Week 1 was a 27 to 13 home win over Miami, with the run defense fourth in the league and the pass defense seventh. Week 2 was a 26 to 14 win at the Chargers, and the run defense took 15.6 expected points away from them, the best total any run defense has posted in the 92 team games played this season. The run game was 20-fourth and 20-ninth in those two weeks, and the passing game sixteenth and thirteenth by expected points per play. Sunday flipped the defensive story: the run defense had its worst game of the three, and the pass defense won it with four takeaways in the fourth quarter. The passing game was seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week per play, and third down, a weakness last season, was the best of the three. Three games do not settle a season, and a four-takeaway quarter does not repeat on schedule. But three wins is already as many as all of last year.

Las Vegas hosts Kansas City next Sunday.

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_Data via nflverse._