Raiders, Week 3 — What Repeats: Four Turnovers, Few Risky Throws

The Raiders took the ball away four times in the fourth quarter, and the charting says Tyler Shough's throws gave them very little help doing it. 32 of his 42 throws were charted catchable. That is 76 percent, eleventh-highest of the 32 teams this week. One of the 42 was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and it was the one Hezekiah Masses intercepted. The charting flagged one more, a second interception late in the game that a Las Vegas penalty wiped out. Only two throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, near the fewest any defense saw this week. So the picture is a quarterback putting the ball where it could be caught, mostly to open receivers, and a defense that got it anyway. The sacks were another matter. Two of the four takeaways were sacks that became fumbles, and the charting put both of those sacks on Shough. That is a fair way to win a game. It is not a way to plan on winning the next one.

It also breaks a line from last week's notebook. Through two games, quarterbacks throwing at this defense had been hard to catch: 56 percent catchable in Week 1 and 63 in Week 2, both in the bottom five of the league. Sunday's 76 is above the 74 that opponents managed against this defense across all of last season. The rush was not the difference. Las Vegas sent five or more pass rushers on 10 of Shough's 45 dropbacks, 22 percent, right at last season's rate.

The run defense showed the third-lightest boxes in the league: six or fewer defenders on 22 of New Orleans' 27 designed runs, 81 percent. Only the Browns and the Cardinals showed a lighter box this week. The Saints gained a hundred 12 yards on those runs, 4.1 a run, and that count leaves out Shough's scramble. Three weeks, three different boxes. Against Miami 15 percent of them were light; against the Chargers, 65; on Sunday, 81. Last season it was 43. The lighter the box has gotten, the more the runs have gained, from 2.7 a run in Week 1 to four point oh to 4.1. That is the trade a defense makes when it keeps bodies out of the box.

Last week's notebook asked one question of the Raiders' run game: count the box on Ashton Jeanty's carries, and if it is light and the runs still go nowhere, that is the story of this offense. The Saints showed six or fewer on 14 of the Raiders' 24 designed runs, 58 percent, eighth-highest this week. Those 24 went for a hundred 10 yards, 4.6 a run. 36 of those yards came on one snap, the Washington touchdown the Recap retold, through a six-man box. The other 23 gained 74 yards, about 3.2 a run, and the box made no difference: 3.2 on the other light-box runs, 3.3 into seven or more defenders. So across three weeks: four point oh into the heaviest boxes in the league, 2.2 against the Chargers' mostly light ones, and about three on Sunday once the one run is set aside. The notebook line holds.

The passing game's charting moved the opposite way from a week ago. Leave out the two failed two-point tries, and 23 of Kirk Cousins's 33 throws were charted catchable, 70 percent, around the middle of the league, after 83 percent and fifth in the league last week. Not one of the 23 was dropped, after four drops on 24 a week ago. 13 throws went to Brock Bowers, 10 of them catchable, and Bowers caught all 10 for a hundred 16 yards. One throw was interception-worthy, a deep ball toward Jalen Nailor on second and eight with one 15 left in the first half, tied at 13, and it fell incomplete. One throw was contested, well under the 13 percent this offense threw into last season. So the Raiders threw fewer catchable balls than a week ago, into less traffic, and it worked because nothing that should have been caught hit the ground.

Play-action fell to seven of 37 dropbacks, 19 percent, in the bottom third of the league and below last season's 25. Where Cousins throws from has now held for three games. Four of 37 dropbacks outside the pocket, among the four lowest rates in the league, after none in Week 1 and two in Week 2; last season's Raiders quarterbacks were out on about one dropback in six. What changed is the sacks. Cousins was sacked three times, and the charting put two on him, on third and 13 in the first quarter and with 30 seconds left in the half. In Weeks 1 and 2 no sack was charged to him.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Bowers: 10 catches on 13 targets for a hundred 16 and a touchdown, 22.6, the most of anyone on the field but Shough. Cousins: 22 of 33 for 248, three touchdowns, no interceptions, 22.2. Washington: five carries for 54 and the touchdown, 11.4. Jeanty: 19 carries for 56 three catches for 37, 10.8.

One more time on the yardstick, and then it changes. Through this week every comparison on this show is to last season's Raiders, a different roster with a different quarterback. From next week the comparison becomes this team's own season.

The thread, from the top. Last season the Raiders went three and 14. This season they are three and oh: 27 to 13 over Miami at home, 26 to 14 at the Chargers, and 35 to 27 at New Orleans. Last week's notebook had two lines. The quarterback's pocket held, about one dropback in 10 outside it, still among the lowest rates in the league, but two of three sacks were charged to him after none in two games. The throws against this defense broke: after two quarterbacks at or under 63 percent catchable, Shough was at 76, and the four takeaways came from a quarterback who threw one risky ball that counted. And the run game answered the question the notebook asked. Light boxes, about three yards a run, and one 36-yard exception. The new notebook line is the pass defense: it won a game on takeaways in its most catchable afternoon of the season, and the Chiefs come to Las Vegas next.

That's your Raiders — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._