Raiders 17, Patriots 45 — Week 5: Missed From 49, Down 21-7 at Half

Las Vegas lost 45-17 at New England, and the pass defense gave up more in one afternoon than any unit on the field could answer. Drake Maye completed 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and the Patriots scored touchdowns on 6 of 11 drives. The Raiders' best chance came in the second quarter, when Darien Porter recovered a fumble at the New England 38 with Las Vegas down 14-7. It ended with a missed field goal and a Patriots touchdown, 21-7 at the half.

The passing game ran close to its usual rate and stayed in the game only until the defense left it behind. Las Vegas was successful on 48.7% of its 39 pass plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Those plays were worth +5.1 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth: +0.13 a play, against +0.18 through Week 4. Kirk Cousins went 19 of 28 for 243 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, and was sacked three times. Brock Bowers caught 8 of 10 targets for 110 yards. On the second drive, down 7-0, he converted third and 2 with a 24-yard catch deep left, and he finished the drive with the 13-yard touchdown that tied it. Fernando Mendoza played the final drive and went 6 of 8 for 48.

The charting has Cousins near his usual accuracy. 20 of his 28 throws were catchable, 71.4%, against 74.5% through Week 4, and none was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 5 in his first 141. Off play-action he went 6 of 6 for 58 yards, but Las Vegas used it on only 6 of 40 dropbacks, 15%, against 24.8% through Week 4.

The run game was Muffed again, and the designed runs tell it: 17 of them gained 35 yards, after 371 on 108 through Week 4. All 18 rush plays were worth -6.1 EPA, -0.34 a play against -0.21 through Week 4, and only 27.8% were successful. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 27 yards. The run that hurt came after the takeaway: first and 10 at the New England 27, Tre Tucker ran right tackle and lost 11.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA allowed tells it: New England's 35 pass plays were worth +29.5 EPA, +0.84 a play, against -0.10 allowed through Week 4. On defense a positive number is the bad direction. The Patriots were successful on 62.9% of those plays. Maye's throws were catchable 76.5% of the time, against the 65.9% this defense allowed through Week 4, and 9 of 34 were contested, 26.5%, after 11.1%; his receivers dropped none. Las Vegas sent five or more on 9 of 38 dropbacks, 23.7%, near its 25.3% through Week 4, and got one sack, split by Jonah Laulu and Malcolm Koonce. The second New England drive showed the whole problem. Tied 7-7, the Patriots faced fourth and 2 at the Las Vegas 48 and Maye hit DeMario Douglas for 6. Eric Stokes was flagged for pass interference for 27 yards on the next snap, his second on a touchdown drive. A third-and-3 throw to Hunter Henry at the 8 fell incomplete, and on fourth and 3 Henry caught it for 7 to the 1. After a false start, Rhamondre Stevenson scored from the 5, 14-7.

The run defense held to its usual rate with a heavier front. Las Vegas showed six or fewer in the box on 13 of New England's 25 designed runs, 52%, against 61.7% through Week 4. The 28 rush plays it faced were worth -2.8 EPA, -0.10 a play against -0.10 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is good. They gained 169 yards and two touchdowns. Adam Butler forced the game's only fumble, on Corey Kiner up the middle, and Porter recovered.

The game turned in the last 4:33 of the first half. Porter's recovery at the New England 38 was worth 10.8 points of win probability, each team's chance of winning at that moment. Cousins hit Jeanty for 8 and Jeanty ran for 3 to the 27, then Tucker's 11-yard loss turned first and 10 into second and 21. A third-and-14 throw fell incomplete, and Matt Gay's 49-yard field goal hit the left upright. New England went from its own 39 to the end zone in five snaps, Henry catching 26 and then the 11-yard touchdown with 28 seconds left. On the first drive of the third quarter Maye found Kyle Williams for 34 yards on second and 19, and it was 28-7. Las Vegas converted 5 of 13 third downs, had three three-and-outs, and stopped New England on 5 of 11.

The scheme moved less and hurried more. Motion fell to 22.4% of charted plays from 51.3% through Week 4. No-huddle rose to 21.1% of snaps from 4.3%, much of it in the fourth quarter, trailing by 28. Screens rose to 4 of 40 dropbacks, 10%, from 6.7%, and Cousins left the pocket 4 times on 31 dropbacks.

Last week's notebook had two lines. Cousins' contested throws came down from Week 4, to 6 of 28, 21.4%, still above his 14.2% through Week 4. The run defense, which gave up big yards out of its usual box in Week 4, played a heavier front and held New England's run game to this unit's normal rate. The line kept since Week 2 holds: the box was about usual, 47.1% light against 43.5%, and the runs still went nowhere. The one to watch next: whether the pass defense gets back toward the 65.9% catchable rate it allowed through Week 4, and whether Jeanty's designed runs find yards against any box at all.

That's your Raiders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._