Raiders 21, Rams 35 — Week 7: Five Red-Zone Trips, One Touchdown

Las Vegas lost 35-21 at home to the Rams, and the game was gone before halftime. Los Angeles scored touchdowns on four straight possessions to lead 28-3 with 1:25 left in the second quarter. The Raiders got within 28-18 early in the fourth on two touchdowns, both followed by failed two-point tries, and Blake Corum's 4-yard run made it 35-18 with 6:37 left. 11 drives produced 2 touchdowns, 3 field goals, a missed 51-yarder, 3 turnovers on downs and 2 three-and-outs, with no giveaways.

The passing game fell well short of its own standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the drop. Its 47 pass plays were worth -2.1 EPA, -0.045 a play against +0.19 through Week 6, and 40.4% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Kirk Cousins completed 26 of 44 for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked twice. Tre Tucker caught 5 of 12 targets for 103 yards, Brock Bowers 6 of 8 for 73, and Ashton Jeanty all 8 of his for 61. Third down went 3 for 14. The best of it came down 28-6 across the end of the third quarter: Tucker caught a 41-yarder on third and 4 at the Las Vegas 15, then a 37-yard touchdown deep left on third and 3 on the first snap of the fourth, +4.27 EPA.

The run game was Muffed, and success rate says how rarely it worked: 23.5% of 17 rush plays succeeded. They gained 48 yards and were worth -6.7 EPA, -0.40 a play against -0.23 through Week 6. Jeanty ran 8 times for 15 yards. Mike Washington Jr. ran 6 times for 27, 21 of them on one carry to the Rams 14 in the first quarter, down 7-0. On the next two snaps Jeanty gained 2 and then lost 5 on second and 8 at the 12, -1.5 EPA and 5.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, and Matt Gay kicked a 30-yard field goal. In the third, Washington was stopped for no gain on third and 2 at the Rams 13, and the fourth-down throw fell incomplete.

The pass defense gave up short, steady gains, and success rate allowed shows it: 63.3% of the Rams' 30 pass plays succeeded. They were worth +5.2 EPA, +0.17 a play against +0.125 allowed through Week 6; on defense a positive number is bad. Matthew Stafford completed 23 of 29 for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Puka Nacua caught 8 of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown, and Davis Allen caught touchdowns of 3 and 5 yards. Tonka Hemingway sacked Stafford for 8 on third and 5 to end the opening drive. Down 28-6 on the first Rams snap of the fourth, Nakobe Dean intercepted a short throw for Colby Parkinson at the Rams 34, -5.44 EPA for Los Angeles, and Jeanty's 15-yard touchdown catch finished the short field. Inside the 20 the defense allowed 5 touchdowns on 16 snaps.

The run defense was the bigger leak, and the yardage leads: 202 yards on 35 rush plays, worth +6.1 EPA, +0.17 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 6, with 54.3% successful and 2 touchdowns. Corum ran 17 times for 93 yards and Kyren Williams 16 times for 99, including a 17-yard touchdown around left end for 28-3. Corum's 43-yard touchdown run in the third came back on a face-mask penalty. The one takeaway on the ground came in the third quarter: JJ Pegues forced Williams's fumble and Jeremy Chinn recovered at the Rams 30. That drive ended on fourth and 5 at the 25, when Jalen Nailor's 16-yard catch at the 9 was reversed on the Rams' challenge.

The game turned on the first quarter's two chances. On the second drive a 39-yard pass-interference penalty put Las Vegas at the Rams 30, an intentional-grounding penalty pushed it back 10, and Gay missed from 51 wide left. The next drive reached the 12 and settled for 3. Los Angeles answered with an 80-yard touchdown drive for 14-3, and the Raiders' last chance to stay close went with 2:00 left in the half: down 21-3, fourth and 3 at the Rams 48, Cousins threw short left for Cody White and it fell incomplete, -2.79 EPA. The Rams scored 35 seconds later. Five red-zone trips produced one touchdown.

Last week's notebook asked whether 14 contested throws in 41 was a one-week spike, and whether a pass defense allowing +0.31 a play was one bad afternoon. The contested throws wait for the charting. The pass defense came back to +0.17 a play, closer to its +0.125 through Week 6 but still above it. The one to watch next: whether a red-zone offense that scored 1 touchdown on 13 snaps inside the 20 finishes drives, and whether a run game at -0.40 a play gives Cousins any help.

That's your Raiders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._