Raiders 38, Jets 33 — Week 8: Three Straight Second-Half TDs

Las Vegas won 38-33 at the Jets on Sunday, ending a four-game losing streak and getting back to 4-4. Down 23-14 at halftime, the offense scored touchdowns on its first three drives of the second half, and Jeremy Chinn intercepted Geno Smith in the end zone with 14 seconds left. The 38 points were the most the Raiders have scored this season. Eight offensive drives produced four touchdowns, Matt Gay's 53-yard field goal, a turnover on downs and two three-and-outs, and Dylan Laube added a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the second quarter.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much: 27 pass plays worth +16.4 EPA, +0.61 a play against +0.15 through Week 7, more than double its previous best game this season. 63% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Kirk Cousins completed 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and lived underneath: 17 of 22 short throws complete for 201 yards. Brock Bowers caught 7 of 10 targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns, both on third down. Jalen Nailor caught all 4 of his, three of them third-down conversions. The biggest Raiders play came down 30-28 on the first snap of the fourth quarter: second and 11 at his own 42, Cousins threw short left to Ashton Jeanty, who caught it 2 yards behind the line and ran to the Jets' 13 for 45 yards, +3.7 EPA and 18.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Five snaps later Nailor caught a 2-yard touchdown on third and 2 for 35-30.

The run game climbed above its poor standard without getting above zero, and success rate shows the grind: 38.7% of 31 rush plays succeeded, for 97 yards. They were worth -4.1 EPA, -0.13 a play against -0.25 through Week 7. Mike Washington carried 25 times for 83 yards after never carrying more than 9 times in a game this season. Cousins's three runs up the middle all worked: 3 yards on third and 2, the 1-yard touchdown in the third quarter, and 1 yard on third and 1 with 3:26 left. The costly one came down 20-14 late in the second quarter: Jeanty gained 1 on third and 2, and a direct snap to Connor Heyward on fourth and 1 at the Jets' 46 gained nothing, -2.9 EPA and 8.6 points of win probability.

The pass defense gave up more than its own standard, and total EPA allowed says how much: New York's 34 pass plays were worth +11.7, +0.35 a play against +0.13 allowed through Week 7. On defense a positive number is bad, and only Week 5 was worse this season. The damage came deep: 8 of 14 deep throws completed for 194 yards. Adonai Mitchell caught 7 of 9 targets for 142 yards. It tightened after halftime: 18 first-half pass plays were worth +10.4, the 16 after it +1.4. Maxx Crosby's 10-yard sack on third and 6 at the 11 before the half held New York to a field goal, and Tim Keenan III added a 7-yard sack in the third.

The run defense slipped, and yards per play show it: New York's 27 rush plays gained 166 yards, 6.1 a play, worth +3.5 EPA, +0.13 a play against -0.04 allowed through Week 7; here too, positive is bad. Braelon Allen ran 21 times for 147 yards, including seven straight carries for 43 yards late in the first half and a 21-yard touchdown for 30-21 in the third quarter. New York ran only 4 times after halftime.

The game turned on a stand at the 13. Up 35-30 with 6:11 left, Hezekiah Masses's holding penalty wiped out Crosby's 12-yard sack, and on the next snap Smith hit Mitchell deep left for 47 yards to the Raiders' 13, 19.1 points of win probability for New York. Tommy Eichenberg stopped Isaiah Davis for no gain, and two throws fell incomplete. Jason Sanders kicked a 31-yarder for 35-33. The offense took over at its own 35 with 4:31 left and ran four minutes off: Washington gained 8 and 7, the Jets spent all three timeouts, and Gay hit from 53 with 31 seconds left. Chinn's unnecessary-roughness penalty helped New York to the Raiders' 35, and on the next snap Smith threw deep left for Garrett Wilson; Chinn intercepted in the end zone, with Crosby credited with a hit on the throw, an 18.0-point swing.

Last week's notebook asked whether a red-zone offense with 1 touchdown on 13 snaps inside the 20 would finish drives, and whether Cousins's catchable rate would recover. The red zone answered: 4 touchdowns on 17 snaps, though a first and goal at the 1 in the fourth went backward 3 yards before Nailor scored. The catchable rate waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that has allowed at least +0.17 a play through the air in four straight games gets back toward its +0.13 standard.

That's your Raiders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._