Raiders 17, 49ers 38 — Week 9: Five Giveaways in San Francisco

Las Vegas lost 38-17 at San Francisco on Sunday and fell to 4-5, a week after a 38-33 win at the Jets ended a four-game losing streak. The Raiders gave the ball away five times, the most this season, after two giveaways in their previous four games. Nine drives produced two touchdowns, Matt Gay's 50-yard field goal, five turnovers and a three-and-out. Down 21-10 at halftime, they were down 28-10 after one snap of the third quarter.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the fall: 32 pass plays worth -12.9, -0.40 a play against +0.19 through Week 8, its worst game this season a week after its best. The first half held up, 8 pass plays worth +0.5; the 24 after it came to -13.4. Kirk Cousins completed 22 of 32 for 216 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions and was never sacked. The costliest snap opened the half: down 21-10, first and 10 at his own 30, he lost the ball, recovered it at the 23 and threw for Tre Tucker, and Jaden Dugger returned the interception 35 yards for a touchdown, -8.1 EPA and 9.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Tucker was the target on all three interceptions. Brock Bowers caught 7 of 8 for 111 yards and a 21-yard touchdown, then lost a fumble on his next catch.

The run game was barely used, and the count says it: 15 rush plays and 24 yards, both the fewest this season, worth -0.25 a play against -0.23 through Week 8. Ashton Jeanty ran 6 times for 25 yards and Mike Washington 6 times for -3. The 6 runs after halftime lost 3 yards. Cousins scored the first touchdown, 2 yards on second and 1.

The pass defense gave up more than its standard for a fifth straight game, and success rate shows how often: 14 of San Francisco's 26 pass plays, 53.8%, gained what the situation asked for. They were worth +7.2 EPA, +0.28 a play against +0.16 allowed through Week 8; on defense a positive number is bad. Brock Purdy completed 17 of 25 for 232 yards and two touchdowns. On the 49ers' opening drive, scoreless, fourth and 2 at the Las Vegas 45, George Kittle caught a 4-yarder for the first down, 9.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game; the drive ended in a touchdown. Treydan Stukes had the only takeaway, picking off a deep ball for Kittle in the third and returning it 26 yards to the San Francisco 31, and Maxx Crosby had the only sack.

The run defense was worn down, and EPA per play allowed shows it: San Francisco's 40 rush plays, the most Las Vegas has faced this season, were worth +5.6, +0.14 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 8; positive is bad here too. They gained 193 yards and two touchdowns. The damage came early: 25 rush plays before halftime worth +10.5, the 15 after it -4.9. Purdy's four scrambles gained 36 yards, the biggest 18 on third and 15 at the Las Vegas 36 in the first quarter, +3.1 EPA. The stop that mattered came at 28-17 in the third: fourth and 1 at the San Francisco 40, Foley Fatukasi held Purdy to no gain, -3.5 EPA for the 49ers.

The game turned on two trips into San Francisco territory in the third quarter. Down 28-17, Stukes's interception put the offense at the 49ers' 31 with 7:46 left. On second and 10, Bowers caught a 5-yarder and Fred Warner forced the fumble; Dre Greenlaw recovered, and replay upheld it, -5.2 EPA and 6.8 points of win probability. After Fatukasi's fourth-down stop, Tucker's 18-yard catch reached the 22, and on second and 13 Cousins found Michael Mayer deep over the middle for 24 yards to the 1, where Upton Stout forced a fumble that Warner recovered in the end zone, -4.3 EPA and 7.7 points. San Francisco went 80 yards for 35-17. In the fourth, Bowers's 33-yard catch on third and 9 reached the 1; Cousins lost 2, Mayer's touchdown catch came back on his own offensive pass interference, and Renardo Green intercepted in the end zone.

Last week's episode asked whether a pass defense that had allowed at least +0.17 a play through the air in four straight games would get back toward its standard. It did not: +0.28 a play, a fifth straight game. The one to watch next: whether a passing offense at -0.40 a play here, a week after +0.61 at the Jets, gets back toward its +0.19 standard without giving the ball away.

That's your Raiders, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Raiders on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._