Patriots 26, Jets 19 — Week 6: Two Fourth-Down Stops, Three Maye TDs

New England beat the Jets 26-19 at home, and the passing game and two fourth-down stands built a lead that two fumbles could not give back. The Patriots led 17-3 at halftime on Drake Maye's two touchdown throws and Andy Borregales's 32-yard field goal. They lost two fumbles and took one interception, a turnover margin of -1, and the Jets kicked four field goals. Hunter Henry's touchdown early in the fourth made it 23-13, and Borregales's 27-yarder with 1:14 left put it out of reach.

The passing game was the best unit on the field, and expected points added (EPA), the value of a play measured against what the down, distance and field position were already worth, shows by how much. Its 32 pass plays were worth +6.6 EPA, +0.21 a play against +0.09 through Week 5, and 46.9% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Maye completed 18 of 32 for 235 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, and was not sacked. The throw that set the tone came down 3-0 with 4:18 left in the first: second and 10 at the Jets 42, Maye went deep right to Romeo Doubs for a 42-yard touchdown, +4.1 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Doubs was injured on the play. DeMario Douglas caught 7 of 8 targets for 86 yards, including a 9-yard touchdown on third and 9 with 20 seconds left in the half. Henry caught 4 for 48 and scored from 7 on third and 3. A.J. Brown caught 3 of 10 targets for 27, and Maye's fourth-and-5 throw for him at the Jets 40 in the third fell incomplete, a turnover on downs.

The run game piled up yards without value, and EPA per play shows the gap: 35 rush plays worth -5.8 EPA, -0.17 a play against -0.02 through Week 5, for 149 yards and no touchdowns. Only 40% succeeded. Corey Kiner ran 11 times for 57, Rhamondre Stevenson 14 for 36, TreVeyon Henderson 7 for 31 and Maye 4 for 24. Stevenson did convert fourth and 1 near midfield and gained 12 on third and 2 in the second quarter, on the drive that ended in Borregales's 32-yarder.

The pass defense gave ground, and success rate allowed tells it: the Jets succeeded on 57.6% of 33 pass plays, worth +5.9 EPA, +0.18 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 5. On defense a positive number is the bad direction. Geno Smith completed 20 of 30 for 252 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and Omar Cooper Jr. caught 6 of 7 targets for 103, including a 48-yard touchdown down the left side in the third. The pass rush and the end of drives held it together. Milton Williams and Christian Barmore sacked Smith on back-to-back snaps in the first quarter, Barmore's for 10 yards to the Jets 4 on third and 16; the punt that followed gave New England the ball in Jets territory, and Doubs scored on the second snap. Charles Woods intercepted Smith's deep throw for Kenyon Sadiq at the New England 24 early in the fourth, down 23-13, -3.6 EPA to the Jets. The Jets scored no touchdowns on 8 red-zone snaps and converted 3 of 10 third downs.

The run defense won the first half, and EPA per play allowed measures it: the Jets' 26 rush plays were worth -8.1 EPA, -0.31 a play, against a break-even rate allowed through Week 5. Here a big negative is good. Braelon Allen ran 17 times for 78, and 38.5% of the Jets' runs succeeded. The stand that defined the night came at 7-3 with 7:00 left in the second: fourth and 1 at the New England 39, Smith ran up the middle and Gabe Jacas stopped him for no gain, -3.2 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability. Earlier, on the quarter's first snap, fourth and 2 at the New England 30, Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss held Allen to 1 yard. New England turned the second stop into the 32-yard field goal.

The game turned against New England in the third, and the defense turned it back. Up 17-10 with 8:17 left, first and 10 at their own 29, Henderson ran for 6 and David Bailey forced a fumble that Jamien Sherwood recovered at the New England 36, -5.3 EPA and 10.4 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The Jets drove to the 10. On third and 5, Elijah Ponder sacked Smith for 8 yards, another 8.4 points of win probability, and the Jets kicked a 36-yarder instead of a chance to tie. New England answered: Kyle Williams caught a 12-yard pass on third and 10 at 17-13, +2.0 EPA, and Henry's touchdown followed. On the drive after Woods's interception, Douglas caught a 39-yarder on third and 6 and Sherwood forced another fumble, returned 20 yards by Minkah Fitzpatrick, which the Jets turned into a field goal. New England converted 9 of 15 third downs and scored 2 touchdowns on 14 red-zone snaps.

Last week's question was a charting one, so it waits for the full episode. The one to watch next: whether the run game, -0.17 EPA a play on 35 attempts against -0.02 through Week 5, starts paying for its volume, and whether the pass defense returns to its standard after allowing +0.18 a play.

That's your Patriots, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._