Saints 30, Lions 31 — Week 1: 325 Yards After Halftime, One Yard Short at the End

New Orleans scored a touchdown with one 38 left in overtime on Sunday to get within one, 31 to 30, and went for two. Tyler Shough's pass for Bryce Lance was incomplete, and that was the game. It had been 21 to nothing, Detroit, with eight 59 left in the third quarter. The Saints had not scored, had punted five times, thrown two interceptions and lost a fumble, and had 85 yards on 23 pass plays at halftime. Then Shough threw for 325 yards after the break, New Orleans scored on five of its last six possessions, and a game it had a four percent chance of winning at one point in the third quarter came down to one snap from the two-yard line at Ford Field.

Start with the passing game, because it was two different units and the second one is why anyone will remember this. In the first half: 23 pass plays, 85 yards, −11 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position; for an offense a negative number means the plays left the team worse off than before it ran them. Seven of the 23 were successful. After halftime: 38 pass plays, 325 yards, +10, and 21 of the 38 successful. The full line was 61 pass plays, 410 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, five sacks, and almost exactly nothing in expected points either way — ninth of the 16 teams in Sunday's early games. Chris Olave was the one who moved it: 47 yards deep right on first and 10 from the New Orleans 21 with eight 49 left in the third, the first play after Detroit's third touchdown; 42 yards deep middle on second and 10 from the New Orleans 49 with one 23 left in regulation, to the Detroit nine, which set up Juwan Johnson's tying touchdown on the next play; and 20 yards deep right on fourth and three from the New Orleans 27 in overtime, 32 points of win probability on one throw. Shough hit Johnson for 27 to the Detroit eight four snaps after that, and Noah Fant for the touchdown from the eight.

Now the part of the passing game that was the first half. Chuck Clark intercepted a short throw for Fant at the Detroit 35 with five 31 left in the second quarter, and Derrick Barnes intercepted another short throw for Fant on the first play of the second half, at the New Orleans 44. Aidan Hutchinson sacked Shough twice, and Roger McCreary's sack on third and 14 with nine 54 left in the third knocked the ball loose; D.J. Wonnum recovered at the New Orleans 25, and on the third play of the drive that followed it was 21 to nothing. Five sacks allowed is tied with Cleveland for the most of the 16. The offense converted eight of 17 third downs, fifth-best of the 16.

The run game did not show up. 25 carries, 91 yards, one touchdown — Kendre Miller up the middle from the eight with four 32 left in the third, the first score — and −2 expected points. Eight of the 25 were successful, the second-worst rate of the 16.

The defense held Detroit to plus nothing, and that is the honest way to say it. 40 Detroit pass plays produced 206 yards, two touchdowns and +1 expected point; 17 of the 40 were successful, and a 42 percent success rate allowed is fourth-best of the 16 early-game defenses. Detroit ran 33 times for a hundred 65 yards and two touchdowns and came out at −1 expected point, because both touchdowns were one-yard runs and the first-half carries went nowhere. The defense stopped eight of 13 third downs and took the ball away once — Vernon Broughton recovered Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble at the New Orleans 40 after a replay reversal with seven 46 left in the half. The plays it could not stop were the two in overtime: Jared Goff deep left to Jameson Williams for 22 on second and 11 from the New Orleans 27, 35 points of win probability, and the four-yard touchdown to Amon-Ra St. Brown two plays later.

Two more things in the ledger. Daniel Carlson made a 28-yarder with seven 45 left that made it 21 to 17, and with two seconds left in regulation, tied at 24, from the Detroit 44, his 62-yard try to win it was wide right. And Detroit, tied at 24 with 37 seconds left, punted on fourth and one from its own 44 rather than go for it, which is how the Saints had the ball for that kick at all.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this offense finished 20-seventh in the league in expected points per play, 30-first on the ground, and 30-second — last — in explosive-play rate, and the team won six games. On Sunday it had six plays of 20 yards or more, tied for sixth of the 16, and a run game whose success rate was second-worst of the 16. The defense finished tenth in expected points allowed per play, second against the run and fourth in third-down stops. On Sunday it was seventh of 16 against the run and stopped eight of 13. If you want one sentence out of this: the defense looks like itself, the passing game showed two things it was not last year — a first half that bad and a second half that good — and one game, most of it played from behind, does not tell you which of those halves is the team.

New Orleans is at Baltimore next Sunday. Watch the pass protection first, after five sacks, and watch whether the second-half Shough is the one who starts the game.

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_Data via nflverse._