Saints 24, Ravens 17 — Week 2: Two Fourth and Ones to Win It

Fourth and one at the Baltimore one-yard line, a minute 32 left, tied at 17. Tyler Shough had gone up the middle on third and one a snap earlier and Kyle Hamilton had stopped him for no gain. Baltimore spent its last timeout. Shough went up the middle again, the ruling on the field was a touchdown, and replay upheld it. 14 points of win probability on one yard. New Orleans beat the Ravens 24 to 17 in Baltimore, and that touchdown was the first time all afternoon the Saints had been in front. Baltimore led for about 38 minutes of this game. New Orleans led for the final minute and 32 seconds.

Start with third and long, because that is where the game was won. The Saints faced eight third downs that needed seven yards or more and converted five of them. Third and 13 from their own 36 in the second quarter, down seven to nothing, Shough deep middle to Devaughn Vele for 29. Three snaps later, third and eight, Chris Olave for 11. Third and 13 on the first drive of the second half, Juwan Johnson for 25. And third and eight at the Baltimore 30 with two oh three left and the score tied, Johnson again for 25, down to the five, with a roughing the passer call on Hendrickson tacked on. That last one was worth 18 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Those eight snaps were worth +12.2 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so it measures value created above what the situation already offered. The entire New Orleans offense, every pass play and every run, finished at +9 and a half. The third and longs were more than all of it.

The passing game as a whole: 37 pass plays, +10.9 expected points, seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week, in total and per play. For the comparison, at the rate the Saints passed last season, when they were 20-seventh in the league, those same 37 plays would have been worth about −3. It got better as it went. 16 pass plays before halftime were worth +2.1; 21 after halftime were worth +8.8. 252 yards with a longest completion of 29. Three sacks cost 19 yards and 5.2 expected points. And there was no interception and no lost fumble.

The run game was the opposite story. 19 of 27 rush plays gained three yards or fewer. 68 rushing yards, 20-first of the 28 teams that have played this week. The Saints' longest run of the day was a Shough scramble, 11 yards on third and 14, which came up short at the Baltimore five and became a 23-yard field goal. After halftime, 15 rush plays gained 26 yards. By expected points the run game ranks eighth so far this week per play at −1.4 in total, and that ranking flatters it. The two fourth and ones that Shough converted were worth +5 between them. The other 25 rush plays were worth about −6 and a half.

Both of those fourth downs came on the drive that won it. Tied at 17, eight oh six left, ball at the New Orleans 32. 16 plays and more than six and a half minutes. Third and six came up a yard short, so on fourth and one at the Baltimore 44, with five 41 left, the Saints went without a huddle and Shough went up the middle for exactly one. 10 points of win probability. Then the third and eight to Johnson, a false start that moved first and goal from the two back to the seven, Johnson for six to the one with replay confirming he was short, the stop by Hamilton, and the touchdown. Baltimore got the ball back with a minute 28 and no timeouts, reached the New Orleans 37, and with 20 seconds left Lamar Jackson threw deep left for Rashod Bateman and Blackmon intercepted it at the seven. It was the game's only turnover.

The tying drive deserves its own line, because of where it started. With a minute 50 left in the third quarter, punting on fourth and 27 from their own nine and down 17 to nine, the Saints had a 10 percent chance of winning, their low point of the day. The defense answered first. Baltimore took over at the New Orleans 49 and went backwards: a false start, a completion for −3, a Pete Werner sack for −8, a punt. Then nine plays and 68 yards. Third and five, Olave for 12. Second and four from the 21, Shough deep middle to Olave for the touchdown with nine 47 left, 11 points of win probability. The first two-point try ended in a sack, but a defensive holding flag gave New Orleans another snap from the one, and Travis Etienne ran it in around right end. 17 all.

On defense the honest lead is the run defense, and it is not flattering. 77 percent of Baltimore's rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, and that is the highest rate any offense has posted so far this week. 22 rush plays were worth +3 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. That is 20-sixth of the 28 teams that have played; only Cleveland and Detroit have been worse per play. What limited the damage was volume. Baltimore ran 22 times, and only eight times after halftime, for 40 yards.

The pass rush is what kept the score down. Three sacks took 31 yards and 6.1 expected points, and each one ended something. Chase Young's 11-yard sack turned second and 10 at the New Orleans 28 into third and 21, and Granderson blocked the 49-yard field goal that followed to keep it seven to nothing. Young and Shepherd split a 12-yard sack on third and 10 from the New Orleans 19, and a red-zone trip became a 49-yard field goal. Baltimore's 33 pass plays were worth +3.4, sixteenth per play so far this week, but the halves split hard: +9.1 on 17 pass plays before halftime, −5.7 on 16 after it. The Ravens scored three points after halftime. On third down the defense got five stops in nine tries, and the one that set up the winning drive was the shortest. Third and one at the Baltimore 37, tied, eight 21 left, Jackson threw deep middle for Moore with McKinstry defending, incomplete, and Baltimore punted.

Now the thread, for anyone new to this team. Last season the Saints went six and 11. The passing offense ranked 20-seventh by expected points per play and the run game 30-first, while the defense carried them: second against the run, twelfth against the pass. In Week 1 they lost 31 to 30 in overtime at Detroit with 501 yards of offense, third-most in the league that week, because 61 pass plays netted −1 expected point and they turned it over three times. This week they gained 320 yards, a hundred 81 fewer, and won, because the passing game created value instead of volume and nobody gave the ball away. That contradicts both last week and last season. The other half contradicts the prior in the wrong direction: a run defense that was second a year ago was sixteenth in Week 1 and 20-sixth of 28 so far this week. Two games do not settle either one.

New Orleans is at home against the Raiders next Sunday. Watch how many third and longs the offense has to face, and watch the run defense.

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_Data via nflverse._