Saints, Week 2 — What Repeats: Light Boxes, Two Yards a Run

Baltimore put six or fewer defenders in the box on 21 of New Orleans' 24 designed runs on Sunday. Seven of every eight. Of the 32 teams that played this week, no offense saw a lighter share of boxes, and the league median was 44. Across all of last season this offense saw a light box on 59 percent of its designed runs, and in Detroit last week it was 39. The average box was just over six defenders, against 6.4 a year ago. The Saints got 54 yards on those 24 runs — about two and a quarter a run, among the five lowest of the 32 teams. Last season the designed runs went for 1378 yards on 393, about three and a half a run, into heavier fronts than this. The Recap counted the runs that went nowhere. The charting adds that they went nowhere against the lightest boxes anyone saw this week.

The passing game is where the afternoon was made, and the charting shows a ball that was easy to catch. 28 of Tyler Shough's 34 throws were charted catchable — 82 percent, the fifth-highest share of the 32 teams this week, against a median of 73. His own figure across 2025 was 73, and in Detroit last week 73 as well. None of his 34 throws was interception-worthy, meaning a ball a defender should have caught; New Orleans was one of 12 offenses this week with none, and across his 2025 he threw nine on 328. One drop on the 28 catchable balls. Two throwaways. Set that beside the Recap's afternoon without a turnover: very few throws were left for a defender.

Here is one thing that repeated. Six of Shough's 34 throws were contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — 18 percent, seventh-highest of the 32 this week. Last week it was 11 of 56, 20 percent. Across his 2025 it was 10 percent. Two games, both well above his old rate, one with two interceptions and one with no interception-worthy throw at all. The rushers have come at a similar clip too. Baltimore sent five or more on 15 of 39 New Orleans dropbacks, 38 and a half percent, twelfth-highest this week; Detroit's figure last week was 34, and across 2025 this offense saw five or more on 23 percent. The Recap had three sacks, and the charting put none of them on Shough — zero quarterback-fault sacks on his 39 dropbacks, after zero on 62 in Detroit and 10 across his 2025. He was outside the pocket on six of the 39.

The biggest scheme change contradicts last week's read. No-huddle fell to six percent of snaps, eleventh of the 32 this week, after 22 percent in Detroit and 22 and a half across last season. Last week this show said the offense did what it always does, more of it, from behind. On Sunday the Saints trailed for about 38 minutes and went without a huddle far less. Play-action stayed low: six of 39 dropbacks, 15 percent, tied with the Falcons for 20-seventh, after 16 percent last week, against 18 and a half across last season. Shough's four play-action throws went three completions for 22 yards; his 30 other throws went 24 for 230. Motion on 44 of 82 charted plays, 54 percent, ninth this week, a few points over last season's 50. Two screens on 39 dropbacks, five percent, right on last year's rate.

On defense, one of the figures that has now moved the same way twice is the box. The Saints showed six or fewer defenders on seven of Baltimore's 18 designed runs, 39 percent, nineteenth of the 32 this week, after 47 percent in Detroit — and across all of last season this defense showed a light box on 61 percent. Two weeks, both with more bodies near the line than a year ago. Those 18 runs went for 74 yards, 4.1 a run, the eleventh-most allowed this week, after a hundred 63 yards on 32 designed runs in Detroit.

The pass rush went the other way. New Orleans sent five or more rushers on 14 of Baltimore's 37 dropbacks, 38 percent, thirteenth-highest this week, after 22 percent in Detroit and 26 across last season. Last week's lighter rush did not repeat. Lamar Jackson's 31 throws against it: 22 catchable, 71 percent, eighteenth this week and a few points over the 68 this defense allowed last season. Four contested, 13 percent, right on the league median. One interception-worthy ball, and it was the one intercepted. Baltimore faked a handoff on 12 of those 37 dropbacks, 32 percent, the eighth-highest play-action rate the 32 defenses saw this week. Detroit's figure last week was 34, and last season's opponents ran it on 26 percent against this defense. Jackson's 10 play-action throws went seven for a hundred three yards, his 21 others 14 for a hundred 32. Two weeks, two offenses leaning on the fake against this defense more than last year's opponents did.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Shough led the game at 22.4: 27 of 34 for 252 and a touchdown, no interceptions, and nine carries for 23 and the go-ahead score. Chris Olave, eight catches on 10 targets for 86 and a touchdown, 18.6. Devaughn Vele, five catches on seven targets for 64, 8.9; Juwan Johnson, four catches on four targets for 66, 8.6. The backfield is the box story in miniature: Travis Etienne eight carries for 25 two catches for six, 6.1, and Alvin Kamara nine carries for 15 +5 catches for seven, 4.7. For Baltimore, Rashod Bateman caught seven of nine targets for 88 and a touchdown, 18.3; Derrick Henry ran 16 times for 68 and a score and caught three for 19, 16.2; Jackson finished at 14.8.

A note on the yardstick, since the name of this show is a question. Through Week 3, every comparison here sets the game beside the 2025 Saints, not beside this season — a different roster in places, a year older everywhere. That tells you what is out of the ordinary. It does not yet tell you what is true. Detroit was last week, one game, and it is not a season rate. Two games settle nothing; they only let us start sorting.

For anyone new, here is the thread. Last season the Saints went six and 11; the passing offense ranked 20-seventh by expected points per play, the run game 30-first, and the defense was second against the run. Week 1 was a 31 to 30 overtime loss in Detroit. Week 2 was a 24 to 17 win in Baltimore. What moved the same way both weeks: Shough's contested throws well above his 2025 rate, no sack charted as his fault, five or more rushers coming more often than last year, play-action below last year's rate both times, and a defense playing heavier boxes and seeing more play-action than a year ago. What reversed: the tempo, the boxes the offense saw, and the defense's rush. The notebook entry is the run game. Heavier boxes in Detroit and 3.8 yards a designed run; the lightest boxes in the league in Baltimore and about two and a quarter. Lighter boxes, fewer yards. Next time the Saints line up, count the defenders near the line on a run down, and watch what New Orleans does when there are six.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._