Saints 27, Raiders 35 — Week 3: Four Turnovers in the Fourth

Third and four at the Las Vegas 29, 13 oh four left in the game, New Orleans up 27 to 22. Tyler Shough went back to pass, Koonce sacked him for a 10-yard loss and forced a fumble, and Maxx Crosby recovered for the Raiders at their own 45. 14 and a half points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was −5.7. It was the first of four. The Saints' last four possessions ended in a sack-fumble, an interception, a sack-fumble on fourth down, and a fumble after a catch, all in the fourth quarter. They had led 27 to 16 with five 46 left in the third, when the model gave them an 87 percent chance. They lost 35 to 27 at home, and the Raiders scored the last 19 points.

The passing game opens on its success rate, because it and the total disagree. 55 percent of 44 pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for — ninth of the 28 teams that have played this week. Four touchdown passes, 233 net passing yards. And yet the total was −7.1 expected points, 20-fifth of those 28. The whole gap is the four turnover plays, all of them pass plays: together they cost 20.6 expected points, and the other 40 pass plays were worth +13 and a half. For the baseline: at the rate New Orleans passed over the first two weeks, 44 plays would have been worth about +5. At last season's rate, when the Saints ranked 20-seventh, about −3. The snap that shows what the other 40 looked like came in the first quarter, down three to nothing: third and 11 from the Las Vegas 18, two 45 left, Shough short left to Chris Olave for 12 to the six. +2.3 expected points, eight and a half points of win probability. Three plays later, on third and two, Shough found Juwan Johnson for the touchdown.

The worst of the four was the interception. Third and six at the New Orleans 31, eight oh three left, down 28 to 27. Shough threw short left for Lance, Masses picked it off at the 43 and returned it to the eight, and when he lost the ball there, the Raiders' Butler recovered at the four. −6 and a half expected points and 29 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Three plays later it was 34 to 27, 35 after the extra point. The next drive reached the Las Vegas 20. Third and one, Alvin Kamara was stopped for no gain. Fourth and one, two 21 left: Shough was sacked for 10 and fumbled, and Las Vegas recovered at the 32.

Third down and the red zone were not the problem. Nine of 15 on third down, 60 percent, tied with Atlanta for third of the 28 teams that have played this week, and four of five on third and one or two. 14 snaps inside the Las Vegas 20 produced four touchdowns. 11 drives: four touchdowns, three punts, four turnovers, no field goals. 381 net yards is seventh of those 28 teams.

The run game opens on the total, and it was the best of the Saints' three weeks by that measure. 28 rush plays, 148 yards, +2.4 expected points, and 54 percent of them successful — fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week by total. One qualifier: that count includes Shough's 36-yard scramble on first and 10 from the New Orleans 32, worth +2.1 on its own; the other 27 were worth about plus a third of a point. At the rate the Saints ran over the first two weeks, 28 plays would have been worth about −2. At last season's rate, when they ranked 30-first, about −3.

Now the defense, starting with the run defense, which held. 25 Las Vegas rush plays, 115 yards, −2.3 expected points — on defense a negative number is the good direction. Only 28 percent of those runs were successful for the Raiders, and 14 of the 25 gained three yards or fewer. By expected points allowed that is twelfth of the 28 teams that have played this week. One snap undid a lot of it: second and one at the New Orleans 36, three 29 left in the third, up 27 to 16, and Washington went 36 yards through the right guard. He was ruled out at the one; the Raiders challenged and it became a touchdown, +3.3 expected points for Las Vegas. At the rate this run defense allowed over the first two weeks, 25 plays would have been worth about +1. At last season's rate, when it ranked second in the league, about −2.

The pass defense bent until the fourth quarter. 36 Las Vegas pass plays were worth +10.9 expected points to the Raiders — the bad direction on defense — 20-second of the 28 teams that have played this week. At the rate it allowed over the first two weeks, about +2; at last season's rate, when it ranked twelfth, about −1 and a half. It forced no turnovers, and the Raiders converted seven of 12 third downs. It did win the first half in the red zone: four Las Vegas trips inside the 20, one touchdown, three field goals, the last after an unnecessary roughness penalty with 14 seconds left put the Raiders at first and goal from the seven. Two incompletions, a field goal, and 16 to 13 at the half. In the second half the Raiders scored touchdowns on all three of their scoring drives.

Special teams gave the Saints their biggest lead, and cost them a point. Right after the go-ahead touchdown made it 20 to 16, six 40 left in the third, Laube fumbled the kickoff return at the Las Vegas 30 and Howden recovered at the 32. Two plays later Shough hit Noah Fant for 16 yards and a touchdown, 27 to 16. The first-quarter extra point had been blocked, which is why the Saints led six to three and not seven.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season New Orleans went six and 11 with a passing game that ranked 20-seventh by expected points per play, a run game 30-first, a pass defense twelfth, a run defense second, and a third-down defense in the top five. Week 1 was a 31 to 30 overtime loss at Detroit with 469 net yards, fourth in the league that week, and three giveaways. Week 2 was a 24 to 17 win at Baltimore with the passing game eighth in the league and no giveaways. Sunday was the offense's best run game of the three and a passing game that was successful more often than not, undone by four turnovers in one quarter; that is seven giveaways in three games. The defense that was a strength last season stopped the run and got off the field on only five of 12 third downs. Three games do not settle a season. They do say that this offense can move the ball, and that the Saints are one and two anyway.

New Orleans hosts Atlanta on Monday night, October fifth.

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_Data via nflverse._