Saints, Week 3 — What Repeats: Light Boxes, Four Yards a Run

Last week's notebook for the Saints read: lighter boxes, fewer yards. Sunday said otherwise. The Raiders put six or fewer defenders in the box on 22 of New Orleans' 27 designed runs, 81 percent, the third-lightest share any offense saw this week; only Carolina and San Francisco saw lighter. Those runs went for a hundred 12 yards, 4.1 a run. A week ago against Baltimore it was the lightest boxes in the league and about two and a quarter a run. Split Sunday's runs by the box and the light ones did the work: the 22 into six or fewer went for a hundred yards, four and a half a run, and the five into seven or more went for 12. The longest was Travis Etienne's 16 yards, first and 10 from the Las Vegas 32 with six 33 left in the third, the Saints up 20 to 16. Take that one out and the other 26 still averaged 3.7, better than the whole of last week. So the run game's best week of the three came against the second-lightest boxes it has seen. That is what the notebook said would not happen, and it is the best thing in the charting.

The tempo came back. New Orleans went without a huddle on 13 of its 72 pass and run snaps, 18 percent, the highest rate in the league this week. In Detroit in Week 1 it was 22 percent, tied with Tennessee for the highest; in Baltimore it was six percent, eleventh. Across all of last season this offense went no-huddle on a little over a fifth of its snaps, so Sunday is close to its normal, not a new idea. 11 of the 13 came with the Saints trailing, and eight sat on two drives, a second-quarter drive down seven and a third-quarter drive down three. Both of those drives ended in touchdowns.

Tyler Shough's charting broke two notebook lines at once. First, the contested throws. In Detroit, 11 of his 55 throws were contested; in Baltimore, six of 34; both well above his 10 percent from last season. On Sunday it was two of 42, five percent, near the bottom of the league. The ball went to open receivers. 32 of the 42 throws were charted catchable, 76 percent, eleventh in the league this week and above his 74 across 2025. Juwan Johnson: eight throws, eight catchable, eight catches. Chris Olave: 13 throws, nine catchable, nine catches. One drop all night, on a throw to Kendre Miller. One interception-worthy throw of 42 counted, and it was the interception, third and six from the New Orleans 31 with eight oh three left, short left for Bryce Lance; a second, picked off late, was wiped out by a Raiders penalty. Second, the sacks. Through two games no sack had been charted as Shough's fault. On Sunday he was sacked twice, both were charted his fault, and both became fumbles Las Vegas recovered.

The rush against him fell back to last year's rate. Las Vegas sent five or more pass rushers on 10 of 45 dropbacks, 22 percent. Detroit had sent five or more on 34 percent of dropbacks and Baltimore on 38; last season's opponents sent it on 23. So the two weeks of heavy rush may have said more about those opponents than about the Saints. Play-action stayed where it has been: eight of 45 dropbacks, 18 percent, 20-seventh or tied for it in each of the three weeks, against about 18 last season. Motion on 60 percent of charted plays, fourth-highest in the league, up from roughly half in each of the first two weeks and across last season.

On defense, the box drifted back toward last year. New Orleans showed six or fewer on 14 of the Raiders' 24 designed runs, 58 percent, eighth-highest this week, after 47 percent in Detroit and 39 against Baltimore; across last season it was 61. Those 24 runs gained a hundred 10 yards, and 36 of it was Mike Washington's touchdown through a six-man box. The other 23 went for 74, 3.2 a run. Leave out the two failed two-point tries and Kirk Cousins threw 33 passes against this defense: 23 catchable, 70 percent, a shade above the 69 percent last season's opponents managed. One interception-worthy, a deep ball toward Jalen Nailor late in the first half, and nobody caught it. The Raiders dropped nothing. And they faked a handoff on seven of 37 dropbacks, 19 percent, in the bottom third of the league, after Detroit and Baltimore had used play-action against this defense on 34 32 percent. So of the two things that had repeated on defense, the box moved most of the way back to last season's, and the play-action it faced fell below last season's rate.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Shough led the game at 23.8: 29 of 42 for 255, four touchdowns and the interception, plus the one 36-yard run. Johnson: eight catches on eight targets for 53 two touchdowns, 19.3. Fant: four catches on four targets for 33 two touchdowns, 17.3. Olave: nine catches on 13 targets for a hundred seven, 15.2. Etienne: 13 carries for 57 two catches for 13, eight point oh.

One more time on the yardstick, and then it changes. Through this week every comparison on this show is to last season's Saints, a different roster in places. From next week the comparison becomes this team's own season.

The thread, from the top. Last season the Saints went six and 11. This season they are one and two: a 31 to 30 overtime loss at Detroit, a 24 to 17 win at Baltimore, and 35 to 27 to the Raiders at home. Last week's notebook line was the run game, lighter boxes and fewer yards. Sunday was light boxes and four yards a run, so that line is crossed out. What held: play-action near the bottom of the league for a third week, and motion on about half of plays or more for a third week. What broke: Shough's contested throws, from nearly a fifth of his throws to one in 20; the sacks, none charged to him in two games and then both; the rush he faced, down to last year's rate; and the defense's boxes, back near last season's, with the play-action it saw well under it. The new notebook line is the sacks. Both were his, both became fumbles, and both came with the game within one score. The Falcons come to New Orleans on Monday.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._