Saints 24, Falcons 45 — Week 4: Heavier Box, Longer Runs

New Orleans lost 45-24 to Atlanta at the Caesars Superdome on Monday night, and the run defense is why. The Falcons ran 33 times for 207 yards and five touchdowns, most of the runs into boxes the Saints had loaded for exactly that. It started on the third snap. Second and 1 at the Atlanta 41, 13:43 left in the first quarter: Bijan Robinson went around left end into seven defenders in the box and ran 59 yards for a touchdown. That snap was worth +4.7 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, and 14.8 points of win probability to Atlanta, the biggest swing of the game. New Orleans trailed 24-7 at halftime and never got closer than 14 after the second quarter's opening snap.

The run defense was Muffed, and the success rate allowed shows it: 61% of Atlanta's 33 rush plays were successful, worth +12.1 EPA. Per play that is +0.37; through Week 3 this defense had allowed about zero. The Saints loaded up to stop it and it went the other way. They showed six or fewer in the box on only 12 of 33 designed runs, 36%, after opponents saw that on 49% against them through Week 3. Atlanta ran 21 times into seven or more for 157 yards, 7.5 a carry. Bijan Robinson finished with 145 yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns. Brian Robinson scored three times from the 11 or closer.

The pass defense was no better: Atlanta's 21 pass plays were worth +10.7 EPA, or +0.51 a play, against +0.14 allowed through Week 3. On defense, a positive number is the bad direction. New Orleans sent five or more pass rushers on 13 of 21 dropbacks, 62%, the second-highest rate in the league this week and about double its 30% through Week 3. Michael Penix went 8 of 12 for 137 yards against it. Atlanta answered with the fake: play-action on 38% of dropbacks, second-highest of any offense this week, and Penix completed 7 of 8 off it for 133 yards. The one sack came on third and 6 late in the first quarter and forced a punt.

The passing game moved the ball in volume and little else. 40 percent of its 50 pass plays, two sacks included, were successful, and they added up to +0.7 EPA: +0.01 a play, against +0.03 through Week 3. Tyler Shough completed 30 of 48 for 286 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. The charting is less kind. Only 30 of his 48 throws were catchable, 62.5%, 25th of 32 offenses this week, after 77% across his first three games. Against five or more rushers he went 7 of 12 for 39 yards; against four or fewer, 23 of 36 for 247.

Chris Olave was the one who got loose: 8 catches on 12 targets for 116 yards. His 44-yarder off play-action with 44 seconds left in the first quarter set up Alvin Kamara's 3-yard touchdown on the first snap of the second quarter. Devaughn Vele caught 6 for 54 and the late touchdown, and Juwan Johnson caught 6 for 59. The fake came back a little, on 11 of 51 dropbacks, 22%, up from 16% through Week 3, with Shough 9 of 11 off it. Motion went the other way: 31% of charted plays, 29th of 32, after 54% through Week 3.

The run game was the quiet one: 19 rush plays for 50 yards and -5.7 EPA, -0.30 a play, against -0.02 through Week 3. Only 26% were successful. Atlanta showed six or fewer in the box on 10 of 18 designed runs, 56%, after this offense saw light boxes on 70% through Week 3. Those 10 gained 25 yards. Kamara scored twice, from the 3 and the 5, and gained 23 yards on seven carries.

The game turned on a challenge. First and 10 at the New Orleans 20, 2:52 left in the first quarter, down 7-0: Kendre Miller ran at left guard for 3 yards and was ruled down. Atlanta challenged, the call was reversed, and Henderson was credited with forcing and recovering the fumble at the Saints 22. That snap cost New Orleans 5.9 expected points and 12.8 points of win probability. The defense still had Atlanta stopped on fourth and 4 at the 8 when a holding flag gave the Falcons a fresh set, and Bijan Robinson scored from the 4. It was 14-0.

The second half was long drives and short returns. Two 16-play drives produced 10 points. The first stalled when Shough's third-and-3 throw to Vele from the 8 fell incomplete and Carlson kicked a 27-yard field goal. The second needed a fourth-and-10 conversion to Vele and a fourth-and-1 run before Kamara scored to make it 31-17. Then a fourth-and-6 try from their own 30 ended in a 9-yard sack, and Atlanta scored from the 21 three carries later. New Orleans went 6 of 15 on third down.

Last week's notebook line was the sacks: both charged to Shough, both turned into fumbles. That one is crossed out. He was sacked twice on Monday, the charters charged neither to him, and he did not fumble. The new line is the catchable rate, from 77% to 62.5% in one game, alongside motion falling by nearly half. The Saints are 1-3: a 31-30 overtime loss at Detroit, a 24-17 win at Baltimore, a 35-27 home loss to the Raiders and now this.

Scored half-PPR: Kamara 20.3, Shough 15.9, Olave 15.6, Vele 14.4, Johnson 8.9. For the Falcons, Bijan Robinson 27.2.

The one to watch when Minnesota visits on Sunday: whether Shough's throws get back to the catchable rate of his first three games, and whether the box stays heavy after this.

That's your Saints, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Saints on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._