Saints 13, Vikings 23 — Week 5: 96 Passing Yards, Two Murphy Picks

New Orleans lost 23-13 to Minnesota at the Caesars Superdome, and the passing game is why. The Saints threw for 96 yards on 26 pass plays, and Byron Murphy intercepted Tyler Shough twice. The defense did its part and more: it took the ball away twice, and one of those takeaways was the Saints' second touchdown, Jonas Sanker's 87-yard fumble return late in the third quarter. Daniel Carlson's extra point after it went wide left, the game was tied 13-13, and the offense did not score again. The Saints are 1-4.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far. Its 26 pass plays were worth -11.9 EPA, -0.46 a play, against +0.02 a play through Week 4. Only 38.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Shough completed 16 of 25 for 96 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, and Andrew Van Ginkel sacked him once for 9 yards. The first interception came after the drive had already gone backwards. Down 13-7 in the third, a holding call and a false start turned second down into second and 26 at the Saints 38; Shough threw short right for Bryce Lance, and Murphy picked it off at the Minnesota 49 and returned it 14 yards, -5.0 EPA. The second ended the last real chance: third and 12 at his own 18 with 2:56 left, down 10, deep left for Chris Olave, Murphy again. Olave led the team with 4 catches for 46 yards. Lance was targeted three times and caught none.

The charting says the throws were the problem as much as the rush. Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 15 of 26 dropbacks, 57.7%, against the 30.5% this offense saw through Week 4. Only 16 of Shough's 25 throws were charted catchable, 64%, after 73.2% through Week 4, and 3 were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 12% of his throws after 4 in his first 179. His receivers dropped none. The offense converted 2 of 10 third downs, and four of its eight drives were three-and-outs.

The run game produced the only offensive touchdown and little else, and its success rate shows it: 29.4% of 17 rush plays were successful. They were worth -3.2 EPA, -0.19 a play against -0.08 through Week 4, for 55 yards. Most of the good came on one drive in the second quarter, after two fourth-down conversions, Olave for 5 on fourth and 2 and Devaughn Vele for 4 on fourth and 1. Kendre Miller then ran for 9, 7 and 6 and scored from the 2 on third and 2. He finished with 10 carries for 30 yards and the touchdown. Minnesota came with more in the box than this offense is used to: six or fewer on 9 of 17 designed runs, 52.9%, against 67.4% through Week 4.

The pass defense held Minnesota below its own level, with one snap doing a lot of the work. Minnesota's 31 pass plays were worth -1.5 EPA, -0.05 a play, against +0.20 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction. The Sanker return alone was worth -10.1 to Minnesota. Without it the picture is less kind: Kyler Murray completed 24 of 30 for 229 yards and a touchdown, 25 of his 29 throws were charted catchable, 86.2% against the 74.6% this defense allowed through Week 4, and none was interception-worthy. Minnesota went to play-action on 15 of 38 dropbacks, 39.5%, against 30.1% from opponents through Week 4, and threw 6 screens. The Saints sent five or more on 14 of 38, 36.8%, close to their 34.6%. Carl Granderson had a 10-yard sack on the opening drive and split another with Chase Young before halftime. Minnesota converted 10 of 16 third downs, and Justin Jefferson caught 6 for 79 and the touchdown.

The run defense gave up 156 yards on 33 rush plays and took the ball once, and EPA credits the takeaway: those plays were worth -5.2 EPA, -0.16 a play, against +0.11 allowed through Week 4; again, negative is good. With 50 seconds left in the first quarter, Minnesota up 3-0 at the Saints 10, third and 1: Aaron Jones went up the middle for 3 yards, Khristian Boyd knocked the ball loose, and Young recovered at the 7 and ran 27 yards to the Saints 34. That snap was worth -7.6 EPA and 16.4 points of win probability to Minnesota, and the Saints drove from there for Miller's touchdown. Jones still finished with 25 carries for 113 yards and the go-ahead score, and 42.4% of Minnesota's rush plays were successful. The Saints showed six or fewer in the box on 14 of 26 designed runs, 53.8%, against 44.9% through Week 4, and those runs gained 102 yards.

The game turned at 2:49 of the third quarter and turned back within three snaps. Minnesota led 13-7 with third and 15 at the Saints 19. Murray threw short left to Myles Price, who got to the 12 before Martin Emerson knocked the ball out; Sanker picked it up at the 13 and ran 87 yards for the touchdown. The play moved 36.9 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Carlson's kick missed, and Minnesota answered right away: Murray deep left to Jeshaun Jones for 32, Aaron Jones for 19, and Jones up the middle from the 8 early in the fourth for 20-13. The second half had started badly too, with a fumbled kickoff return Minnesota recovered at the Saints 37 and turned into Jefferson's touchdown. On the Saints' last good drive, fourth and 7 at the Minnesota 44 with 5:05 left, Shough found Juwan Johnson for 6, one yard short.

The scheme pulled in. Play-action fell to 1 of 26 dropbacks, 3.8%, from 17.8% through Week 4; Shough completed that one for 14 yards and went 15 of 24 for 82 on everything else. Pre-snap motion dropped to 35% of charted plays from 48%. No-huddle rose to 20.9% of snaps from 15.6%. There were no screens.

Last week's notebook asked whether Shough's throws would get back to the catchable rate of his first three games, and whether the box would stay heavy. Neither happened. The catchable rate stayed down at 64%, under his 73.2% through Week 4, and he threw 3 interception-worthy balls in one game after 4 in his first 179. The box went the other way, light on 53.8% of Minnesota's designed runs, and Jones still needed 25 carries for 113. The one to watch next: whether play-action comes back after one fake in 26 dropbacks, and whether Shough's interception-worthy rate settles back near the 2.2% of his first four weeks.

That's your Saints, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Saints on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._