Saints 34, Giants 27 — Week 6: 34 Straight, Then a Fourth-Down Stop

New Orleans won 34-27 at New York, and the pass defense took the game the offense spent a quarter and a half losing. The Saints trailed 10-0 in the second quarter, then scored the next 34 points: three Tyler Shough touchdown passes, his own 1-yard run and two Daniel Carlson field goals, from 58 and 51. Carlson also missed from 55. The Giants scored the last 17 and reached the Saints 14 before an incompletion on fourth and 1 with 12 seconds left ended it. The turnover margin was +2.

The passing game did more with less, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows how little: 30 pass plays worth -0.5 EPA, -0.02 a play against -0.03 through Week 5, for 144 yards. Only 33.3% succeeded. Shough completed 16 of 30 with three touchdowns, no interceptions and no sacks. Chris Olave caught 4 of 7 for 43 and an 18-yard touchdown, Devaughn Vele 3 for 42, Alvin Kamara 2 for 35 and a touchdown, and Bryce Lance 2 for 9 and a touchdown. Third downs stayed hard: 4 of 15, and 6 of 15 drives were three-and-outs.

The run game carried the volume and beat its own standard, and EPA per play measures it: 37 rush plays worth -1.8 EPA, -0.05 a play against -0.09 through Week 5, for 176 yards. Kendre Miller ran 20 times for 70, CJ Donaldson 6 for 39 and Kamara 7 for 34; 35.1% succeeded. Shough ran 5 times for 32, including a 25-yard scramble to the Giants 3 before halftime, +2.2 EPA, and scored from the 1 on third and goal after replay reversed Donaldson's touchdown. The costs: Miller lost a yard on third and 1 at the 1 before the half, and Donaldson fumbled at the Giants 48 in the fourth, -5.1 EPA.

The pass defense smashed, and EPA allowed per play says by how much: New York's 48 pass plays were worth -5.2 EPA, -0.11 a play against +0.15 allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. The Saints intercepted three passes and sacked the Giants five times, Carl Granderson and Chase Young with 1.5 each, Pete Werner and Colby Wooden one apiece. Martin Emerson had two interceptions and four passes defensed. The pick that ended it came with 12:28 left, up 27-10: second and 3 at the Giants 25, Jameis Winston threw deep middle for Isaiah Likely, and Julian Blackmon intercepted at the 42 and returned it 21 yards to the 21. That snap cost the Giants -5.6 EPA, and two plays later Shough found Olave for 18 yards and a 34-10 lead. The leak was volume: 395 yards, 45.8% successful, and Malik Nabers caught 12 of 15 targets for 165.

The run defense came in under its own standard, and EPA allowed per play shows the gap: 19 rush plays worth +1.4 EPA, +0.08 a play against +0.05 allowed through Week 5, for 85 yards and a touchdown. The damage was quarterbacks: Winston's 3-yard fourth-and-1 push in the first and J.J. McCarthy's 28-yard scramble on the final drive.

The game turned in the last 78 seconds of the first half. Down 10-3, Isaiah Stalbird forced Charlie Jones to fumble the kickoff return and Oscar Delp recovered at the Giants 28. Shough scrambled to the 3, and three snaps went nowhere, the last DJ Reader's stop of Miller for -1, worth -6.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. On fourth and 2 with 5 seconds left, Shough threw 2 yards to Lance for the tie, +4.1 EPA and 14.6 points. The opening drive of the third finished it: a roughing-the-passer penalty on Kayvon Thibodeaux, Kamara for 11, then Kamara's 31-yard catch on second and 8 for a 17-10 lead, +3.6 EPA and 14.8 points, the largest swing of the game. At the end, after both onside kicks went to Juwan Johnson, McCarthy drove to the 14. On fourth and 1 with 12 seconds left he threw for Likely, and Jonas Sanker broke it up. The defense stopped 8 of 12 Giants third downs and allowed 2 touchdowns on 9 red-zone snaps; the offense scored 3 on 9.

The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that held the Giants to -0.11 a play, against +0.15 allowed through Week 5, has found a new level, and whether an offense that converted 4 of 15 third downs keeps finding enough on short fields.

That's your Saints, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Saints on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._