Saints 10, Steelers 16 — Week 7: 18 Rushing Yards in Paris

New Orleans lost 16-10 to Pittsburgh at the Stade de France in Paris on Sunday, the designated home team in a game it never led, and fell to 2-5. The Saints had the ball six times: a punt, Daniel Carlson's 38-yard field goal, a touchdown, an interception, Carlson's 52-yard miss and a punt. Pittsburgh took over with 5:52 left and New Orleans never saw the ball again.

The passing game moved the ball as well as it has all season, and success rate is the clearest read: 55% of its 40 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +10.6, +0.26 a play against -0.03 through Week 6, second only to Week 2 this season. Tyler Shough completed 30 of 38 for 278 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked twice. Alvin Kamara caught all 7 of his targets for 57 yards, Devaughn Vele all 5 of his for 54 and the score, and Chris Olave 6 of 10 for 56. Barion Brown's 49-yard catch on first and 10 from the New Orleans 18 set up the field goal. The touchdown drive started at the New Orleans 48 after Brown's 42-yard kickoff return and needed two fourth downs: Olave's 11-yard catch on fourth and 2 at the Pittsburgh 44, then, after three runs from the 2 gained a yard, fourth and goal at the 1 with 1:48 left in the half. Shough threw short left to Vele for the 10-10 tie, +2.5 EPA and 14.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run game was Muffed, and the yardage says how badly: 18 yards on 17 rush plays, the fewest in any game this season. Those plays were worth -7.1 EPA, -0.42 a play against -0.08 through Week 6, and only 2 of the 17 succeeded, 11.8%. Kamara ran 6 times for 5 yards and Kendre Miller 8 for 6. At the goal line before the half, Shough gained 1, then nothing, and Miller was stopped at the 1 on third down. Down 16-10 early in the fourth, second and 5 at the Pittsburgh 32, Kamara lost 5 yards, -1.5 EPA; a false start followed, and Carlson's 52-yarder went wide right.

The pass defense played a little better than its own standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Pittsburgh's 33 pass plays were worth +0.06 a play, against +0.09 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is bad, and this was less of it than usual. Aaron Rodgers completed 19 of 30 for 212 yards and a touchdown without an interception. Carl Granderson and Chase Young had 1.5 sacks each, and Granderson's on third and 6 at the New Orleans 25 before the half pushed Chris Boswell back to a 47-yard field goal. The leak was one throw: tied 3-3 in the second quarter, third and 14 at the Pittsburgh 45, Rodgers went deep left to DK Metcalf for 51 yards to the 4, +5.1 EPA and 20.9 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Darnell Washington caught a 4-yard touchdown two plays later.

The run defense gave up the ground game the offense could not find, and success rate allowed shows how steadily: 50% of Pittsburgh's 28 rush plays succeeded, for 150 yards. They were worth +5.4 EPA, +0.19 a play against +0.05 allowed through Week 6; here, too, positive is bad. Jaylen Warren ran 18 times for 101 yards, starting with a 29-yarder on Pittsburgh's second snap, and converted 5 of his 6 third-down carries. Rico Dowdle ran 9 times for 41.

The game turned on the third quarter's first drive. Down 13-10, the offense went 14 plays from its own 22 to the Pittsburgh 10, converting three third downs on Vele's 24-yard catch, a 6-yard Shough scramble and Juwan Johnson's 7-yarder. On second and 7 at the 10 with 7:43 left, Shough threw short right for Olave, and Payton Wilson intercepted at the 11 and returned it 18 yards: -6.2 EPA and 20.8 points of win probability. Pittsburgh drove for Boswell's 39-yarder and 16-10. Carlson then missed from 52, and the next drive ended in Patrick Queen's 8-yard sack on third and 10. Pittsburgh ran out the last 5:52: Rodgers scrambled 8 yards on third and 6, Warren was stopped on third and 3 at the 19 after the Saints spent their last timeout, and Isaiah Stalbird's offside on Boswell's 37-yard field goal gave Pittsburgh a first down to kneel on. The defense stopped 6 of 16 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether the drops would come back down and whether a pass rush that got five sacks without the blitz would keep getting home. The drops wait for the charting. The rush got home three times; the blitz count waits too. The one to watch next: whether a run game that gained 18 yards on 17 plays, at -0.42 a play, can give a passing game at +0.26 a play any help.

That's your Saints, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Saints on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._