Jets 17, Packers 20 — Week 2: Eight of Nine Stops and a Loss

A minute 20 left in the fourth quarter, tied at 17, fourth and one at the 50. One play earlier, on third and two, Breece Hall had gone left guard for one yard. The Jets kept the offense on the field, Braelon Allen took it out of the shotgun to right guard, and Lukas Van Ness stopped him for no gain. 25 points of win probability on one snap, the most expensive play the New York offense ran all day. The Jets lost 20 to 17 in overtime at home, and they lost with a defense that allowed 208 yards and one third-down conversion.

That defense goes first, because it is the story of this team through two weeks. Green Bay went one of nine on third down, which makes the Jets' stop rate the best of the 28 teams that have played this week. Six of those third downs needed seven yards or more, and none converted. The only one the Packers got was third and three with 10 35 left in the fourth, Jordan Love to Matthew Golden for 18. Five Green Bay drives ended as three-and-outs. 208 total yards allowed is second-fewest so far this week; only Seattle allowed fewer. Green Bay ran 50 pass and rush plays. New York ran 71.

The pass defense is the number that argues with last year. 32 Green Bay pass plays were worth −3.2 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. That ranks eighth of the 28 teams that have played this week, per play. At the rate this pass defense allowed last season, when it was 30-second of 32, those same 32 plays would have been worth about +8. A hundred 45 passing yards allowed, tied with Carolina for third-fewest so far this week. Green Bay's longest completion went 20 yards. Three sacks: David Bailey on the first snap from scrimmage, Jowon Briggs with a strip that the Packers recovered, and Kingsley Enagbare on fourth and 10 to end regulation. The honest caveat is in the flags. Two pass interference calls, 23 yards on Brandon Stephens and 38 on Azareye'h Thomas, gave Green Bay 61 yards, against a hundred 45 allowed through the air. The second came on first and 25 and turned a drive that was going backwards into the touchdown that made it 17 to 14.

Against the run, it was 63 yards on 18 plays, the fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed among teams that have played this week. −7.9 expected points, tied with the Chargers for fourth per play. Nine of the 18 gained three yards or fewer. The run defense also produced the game's only turnover: 12 35 left in the fourth, up 14 to seven, Enagbare knocked the ball loose from MarShawn Lloyd and Harrison Phillips recovered at the Green Bay 18. At that moment the win probability model had New York at 92 percent, its high for the day. What followed was Hall for one, an incompletion, Geno Smith to Isaiah Williams for eight on third and nine, and then a delay of game that turned fourth and one at the nine into fourth and six at the 14. Jason Sanders kicked a 32-yarder. A takeaway at the 18 became three points.

The run game is why the offense lived where it lived. 19 of 27 rush plays gained three yards or fewer. Those 27 plays were worth −11.8 expected points, 20-seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week in total, with only the Chargers' run game losing more, and 20-third per play. 67 yards. A 26 percent success rate, the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule, 20-fifth so far this week. In the first half it was 13 rush plays for 17 yards. The only two runs of 10 or more came on consecutive snaps of the third-quarter touchdown drive, Hall around left end for 14 and Isaiah Williams around right end for 14. The bill came due on third down: 14 of New York's 19 third downs needed seven yards or more.

The passing game kept paying that bill for three quarters. 44 pass plays, +4.3 expected points, fourteenth per play among the 28 teams that have played this week, 247 yards. At the rate the Jets threw it last season, when they ranked 20-eighth, those same 44 plays would have been worth about −8. Four times Smith converted a third down that needed nine or more: 16 to Garrett Wilson on third and 11, 15 to Adonai Mitchell on third and nine to set up Allen's five-yard touchdown, 14 to Mitchell on third and 11, and the biggest offensive play of the day, third and 12 from the Jets' 17 with four seconds left in the third quarter, a short throw to Hall that went 43 yards. +4.4 expected points on one snap. Then that drive fell apart. Second and three at the Green Bay 33, Smith fumbled and recovered it 14 yards back. Third and 17, Edgerrin Cooper sacked him for −10. Fourth and 27, punt. From that play on the Jets failed on their last five third downs. Eight of 19 for the day ranks thirteenth so far this week.

Special teams handed back what the defense had earned. Four 49 left, up 17 to 14, fourth and three from the Jets' 31: Austin McNamara punted 51 yards, and Skyy Moore returned it 63 to the New York 19. 26 points of win probability, the biggest swing of regulation. The defense held Green Bay to three yards and a 34-yard field goal, and it was tied. Earlier, after Allen's touchdown tied it at seven, Moore had taken the kickoff 43 yards to the Green Bay 46; that time the defense forced a punt.

It went to overtime, and the Jets had the ball first. First and 10 from their own 30: sack, −6. Second and 16: sack, −9. A false start, third and 30, 12 yards to Kenyon Sadiq, a punt. On Green Bay's possession, second and seven from its own 48, a 15-yard completion to Chris Brooks picked up 15 more on an unnecessary roughness penalty against Jarvis Brownlee. 30 points of win probability. Two snaps later Trey Smack kicked the winner from 26. New York had 13 accepted penalties for a hundred 56 yards, and led for about 15 minutes of a game it lost.

Now the longer view, for anyone new to this show. Last season the Jets went three and 14. By expected points per play the pass defense was 30-second of 32, the run defense 20-sixth, the passing game 20-eighth and the run game 20-ninth. In Week 1 they won 23 to 10 at Tennessee, allowed 208 total yards, second-fewest in the league, and the passing game ranked fifth at +9.8 expected points on 24 plays. This week the defense allowed 208 again, and the pass defense went from ninth last week to eighth of 28. That is two straight games arguing with a last-place ranking. What did not carry over was the ground game: 36 rush plays for a hundred 55 yards and two touchdowns last week, fifteenth in the league per play, and 27 for 67 this week. Two games, against Tennessee and Green Bay, do not settle it. But the defense has now done it twice, and the one-and-one record undersells it.

New York goes to Detroit next Sunday afternoon. Detroit's defense allowed the most rushing yards and the most total yards of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. Watch whether the Jets' run game shows up there, and watch what distance third down is played from.

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_Data via nflverse._