Jets, Week 2 — What Repeats: Lighter Boxes, Same Pass Rush

The Jets' defense put six or fewer defenders in the box on 14 of Green Bay's 18 charted designed runs. 78 percent, the second-highest light-box rate of the 32 defenses this week, behind only Baltimore. Across all of last season this defense showed a light box on 39 percent of the designed runs it faced, a hundred 84 of 474, with an average box of 6.8 defenders. Against the Packers the average was 6.2. It took defenders out of the box and the run still came in below the league median: 63 yards on those 18 designed runs, three and a half a carry, tied with San Francisco for twentieth of 32 this week. Last season opponents' designed runs gained more than four a carry against this defense.

What did not move is the pass rush, and it has not moved in a year. New York sent five or more pass rushers on nine of Green Bay's 32 dropbacks, 28 percent, tied with the Chargers for eighteenth of 32 this week. Last week against Tennessee it was 28 percent. Across all of last season it was 28 percent. That is the steadiest figure on this team, three readings at the same number, and it is the first thing on the Jets' sheet that can be called repeating. The light box was not tested by the play it invites, either. Green Bay ran play-action once in 32 dropbacks, the lowest rate any defense faced this week, where this defense's opponents ran it on 30 percent of their dropbacks last season.

Against the pass, the charting finds a defense that crowded the catch point. 10 of Jordan Love's 29 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 34 and a half percent, the second-highest rate any defense forced this week, behind Denver. Last season opponents' throws against this defense were contested 17 percent of the time, and last week 16. Love's receivers dropped three of his 23 catchable balls, and one throw was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, tied with the Chargers for ninth this week. Nobody caught it. The charting credits this defense with no interceptions on any of last season's 517 opponent throws, and none in either game this season. Two of the three sacks the Recap counted were charted as Love's own fault, which trims a little of what the rush earned.

On offense, the figure that has held for two weeks is the catchable rate. 32 of Geno Smith's 41 throws were charted catchable, 78 percent, ninth of 32 this week. Last week it was 96 percent, first in the league. Across all of last season the Jets' throws, from whoever threw them, were catchable 69 percent of the time; Smith's own throws for the Raiders last season were catchable 73 percent of the time, 329 of 448. Twice above both lines, in the same direction, is the second thing that can be called repeating. So is the care with the ball: one interception-worthy throw on 41, eighteenth this week, after none last week, against 16 on 499 last season. What changed is traffic. 11 of the 41 were contested, 27 percent, fifth-highest this week, against 17 percent both last week and last season. Two drops on 32 catchable balls, about six percent, tied with New England for thirteenth. Two throwaways. None of the four sacks Smith took was charted as his fault.

The scheme reversed. Play-action came on 10 of 48 dropbacks, 21 percent, 20-first of 32, down from 35 percent and fourth in the league last week, and back near last season's 18. Smith's eight play-action throws produced seven completions for 61 yards; his other 33 produced 20 for a hundred 86. Screens rose to seven of 48 dropbacks, 15 percent, seventh-highest this week, against seven percent last season and eight last week. Motion came on 38 of 93 charted plays, 41 percent, 20-second this week, under last season's 50 for the second week running. Four run-pass options on 71 snaps, after none last week.

The run game is the Week 1 figure that did not survive. 23 designed runs gained 50 yards, 2.2 a carry, the third-lowest of the 32 offenses this week. Last week it was a hundred 39 yards on 33, 4.2, fourteenth. Last season it was a little over four. The box does not explain the drop. Green Bay showed six or fewer on 10 of the 23, 44 percent, seventeenth this week, right at the league median, and a touch lighter than last week's 39 percent. Last season this offense saw a light box on 49 percent of its designed runs, so the box has run slightly heavier in both games, but not heavier against Green Bay than against Tennessee.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Smith led everyone on the field with 15.6, 27 of 41 for 247 yards and a touchdown, +5 carries for 17. Garrett Wilson caught five of seven targets for 57 and a touchdown, 14.2. Breece Hall ran 16 times for 29 yards and caught all five of his targets for 63, 11.7; the receiving half was his day. Adonai Mitchell drew 12 targets, the most on the team, and caught six for 63. Braelon Allen scored on one of his five carries, eight points, and Isaiah Williams caught all six of his targets for 34. For Green Bay, Love scored 13.8 on 16 of 29 for a hundred 45 two touchdowns, and Christian Watson 12.1 on four catches from 11 targets for 41 and a touchdown.

About the comparisons, because the show's name promises something that is not possible yet. "Last season" throughout is all of 2025, with Smith then throwing for the Raiders, a year of change on the roster, and in places different jobs. Comparing to it finds what is unusual. It does not tell you what is true. Last week is one game, and here it stays "last week", never a season rate. Around Week 4 this show starts measuring the Jets against their own recent weeks, and until then each comparison gets named.

For anyone new: last season the Jets went three and 14, with the pass defense last in the league by expected points per play. This season they won 23 to 10 at Tennessee and lost 20 to 17 in overtime to Green Bay. What repeated: five or more rushers at 28 percent, for a third straight reading; a catchable rate above last season's in both games; one interception-worthy ball in 65 throws. What reversed: play-action, from fourth in the league to 20-first, and a run game that fell from 4.2 a designed run to 2.2. The new entry is the light box. It came in a game where the opponent barely used play-action, so it has not been tested yet. Two games settle nothing. When the Jets go to Detroit, count the defenders in the box before the snap.

That's your Jets — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._