Jets 33, Raiders 38 — Week 8: Four Field Goals, One Late Pick

New York lost 38-33 at home to Las Vegas on Sunday, its third straight loss, and fell to 2-6 on the day it scored more points than in any game this season. The Jets led 23-14 at halftime and 30-21 midway through the third quarter, then allowed touchdowns on the Raiders' next two drives. 10 drives produced three touchdowns, four Jason Sanders field goals, from 21, 36, 39 and 31 yards, two punts and the interception that ended it. The two first-quarter field goals came after the offense reached the Raiders' 2 and 17.

The passing game beat its own standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the gain: 34 pass plays worth +11.7 EPA, +0.35 a play against +0.10 through Week 7. Half were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Geno Smith completed 20 of 32 for 290 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, was sacked twice, and went deep 14 times, completing 8 for 194 yards. Adonai Mitchell caught 7 of 9 targets for 142 yards, more than his first three games combined. Down 14-13 with 6:23 left in the second quarter, fourth and 1 at the Raiders' 12, Smith threw short right to Mitchell for the touchdown, +3.4 EPA. Garrett Wilson caught 6 of 12 for 83. The 18 first-half pass plays were worth +10.4 EPA; the 16 after halftime, +1.4.

The run game had its best day of the season, and success rate leads it: 51.9% of 27 rush plays succeeded, for 166 yards, the most in any game this season. They were worth +3.5 EPA, +0.13 a play against -0.11 through Week 7. Braelon Allen ran 21 times for 147 yards, his most this season. He carried seven straight times late in the first half for 43 yards, from his own 46 to the Raiders' 11, before Maxx Crosby's 10-yard sack on third and 6 forced a field goal. His 21-yard touchdown around left end in the third made it 30-21. Then the run went away: 23 rush plays in the first half, 4 in the second.

The pass defense had its worst game of the season, and total EPA allowed says how bad: Las Vegas's 27 pass plays were worth +16.4, +0.61 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 7. On defense a positive number is bad, and 63% of those plays succeeded. Kirk Cousins completed 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns. Brock Bowers caught 7 of 10 for 92 yards and two touchdowns, and Jalen Nailor all 4 of his targets. Two third-down penalties fed touchdown drives: Brandon Stephens's holding on third and 5 at the 5 gave the Raiders a first down, and Bowers scored three snaps later, and Jarvis Brownlee Jr.'s 11-yard pass interference on third and 10 kept alive the drive that ended in Cousins's 1-yard touchdown run. Will McDonald IV had the only sack, 9 yards on third and 2.

The run defense held its line better than its standard, and EPA per play allowed shows it: Las Vegas's 31 rush plays were worth -4.1 EPA, -0.13 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 7; here a negative number is good. Mike Washington ran 25 times for 83 yards, and only 38.7% of the Raiders' runs succeeded. The defense stopped Connor Heyward for no gain on fourth and 1 at its 46, and Darrell Jackson Jr. and Nate Lynn dropped Washington for a 3-yard loss on first and goal at the 1. Cousins's three runs up the middle all converted, the last on third and 1 with 3:26 left after the Jets had spent their final timeout.

The game turned at the Raiders' 13. Down 35-30 with 6:11 left, Smith went deep left to Mitchell for 47 yards, caught 46 yards downfield, +3.0 EPA and 19.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Isaiah Davis gained nothing, a throw to Wilson fell incomplete, and on third and 10 a throw to Mason Taylor did too. Sanders's 31-yarder made it 35-33, the Raiders ran the last four minutes down to a 53-yard field goal, and with 14 seconds left, from the Raiders' 35, Smith threw deep left for Wilson and Jeremy Chinn intercepted in the end zone.

Last week's notebook asked whether a defense that sent extra rushers on 46.4% of dropbacks would keep paying for it with the quarterback's legs. Cousins did not scramble once; his five runs were three short-yardage carries up the middle and two kneel-downs. The blitz count waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.50 and +0.61 a play in back-to-back weeks gets anywhere near its standard.

That's your Jets, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Jets on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._