Seahawks 13, Patriots 10 — Week 1: Three Picks and a Fourth-and-One

Sam Darnold took three dropbacks in the 2026 season. A 13-yard completion to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on his first throw, an incompletion, and then third and six at the New England 46 with 12 27 left in the first quarter, a five-yard sack by Dre'Mont Jones, and he was injured on the play. He did not take another snap. Drew Lock played the rest of the game, and Seattle beat New England 13 to 10 at Lumen Field on Wednesday night anyway — with a fourth-and-one touchdown and three fourth-quarter interceptions.

Start with the defense, because for three quarters it was the only reason the game was still in reach, and in the fourth it won the game outright. New England ran 36 pass plays and they were worth −4.6 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a big negative number is the good direction — those are points the offense lost by running the play. A hundred 78 yards through the air, one touchdown, and three interceptions, every one of them in the fourth quarter. Against the run it was the same direction: 31 New England carries for a hundred and nine yards and −2.7 expected points. New England converted five of 16 third downs. Seattle sacked Drake Maye three times, all three in the fourth quarter. One thing to keep in the ledger: A.J. Brown left the game injured early in the third quarter and did not return, and all three interceptions came after that. And this was not a bad offense having a bad night. This was the offense that finished first in the league in expected points per play last season, and first in expected points per pass play, and its 22 fourth-quarter snaps produced −7.1 expected points.

The three interceptions, in order. Second play of the fourth quarter, 14 27 on the clock, New England up 10 to three at the Seattle 45, second and nine — Maye went deep left for Romeo Doubs and Nehemiah Pritchett picked it off at the Seattle three and brought it back 30 yards to the 33. Seattle was in the end zone on the fifth play of the next drive. Then nine 25, tied at 10, New England facing third and 14 from its own 22 — Maye went deep middle for DeMario Douglas and Julian Love intercepted it at the New England 47. Seattle turned that field position into the field goal that made it 13 to 10. And then the one that ended it. New England had gone 15 plays and five and a half minutes from its own 27, converted a fourth and two and a fourth and nine along the way, and had third and five at the Seattle 16 with 26 seconds left. Maye threw deep right for Mack Hollins in the end zone and Josh Jobe intercepted it. Touchback. That play was worth 42 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Two snaps earlier, on first and 10 at the 21, Derick Hall had sacked Maye for a seven-yard loss — second and 17, and two plays later the game was on a third down.

Now the offense, and it needs to be split in two. Through three quarters Seattle's offense ran 35 plays for −4.6 expected points and scored three points. In the fourth quarter it ran 12 plays for +7.7. The whole night, the passing game came out at +4.4 expected points on 26 pass plays, 200 yards and a touchdown — and the 23 pass plays after Darnold left were worth +6.4 on their own. The run game did not move: 21 carries, 98 yards, no touchdowns, −1.3 expected points, and a success rate of 33 percent, meaning one carry in three gained what the situation asked for. Third down was a problem all night — two conversions in 11 tries. Seattle punted five times, and every possession in the first half ended in a punt or the end of the half.

The play that changed the game was a decision as much as a throw. 11 38 left in the fourth quarter, down 10 to three, fourth and one at the New England 45. Seattle went for it. Lock threw short left to Smith-Njigba, who took it 45 yards for the touchdown — 6.1 expected points, 34 points of win probability, and after the extra point, a tie game. Here is why that decision is the interesting part: last season, in competitive situations, Seattle went for it on fourth down 12 times in 98 chances, the second-lowest rate in the league. On Wednesday it went for a fourth and one twice. The first, in the second quarter at the New England 46, was a direct snap to AJ Barner that picked up the yard and was wiped out by an offensive offside, and Seattle punted. The second was the touchdown. One game does not make a philosophy, but two fourth-and-one calls in one night is more than this team made in most of last season's games.

What kept it from being comfortable was the red zone. Seattle took six snaps inside the New England 20 and scored no touchdowns on them, and it had a seventh that does not count: third quarter, three 25 left, Lock hit Cooper Kupp for a seven-yard touchdown that was wiped out by an illegal shift, and the drive ended in a 30-yard field goal. The one in the fourth quarter hurt more: six 42 left, tied at 10, Lock scrambled 14 yards to the New England three. Second and one at the three. Then a delay of game penalty, second and six from the eight, and two incompletions to Smith-Njigba. Jason Myers kicked the 26-yarder for 13 to 10 instead of a seven-point lead, and that is the margin New England had to work with on the final drive. Penalties in general were Seattle's: 10 of them for 98 yards, against seven for 50 on New England.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. There is no season to compare this to yet, so the comparison is last year, with a different roster and a different question. Last year this defense finished second in the league in expected points allowed per play and tied for fourth in takeaways with 27. On Wednesday it took the ball away three times from the best passing offense in football. That is the same team. Last year the offense was thirteenth in expected points per play, eighth through the air and 20-ninth on the ground. On Wednesday the run game was again the weak unit, and the passing game had a quarterback change on its third dropback, which makes any read on it a read on Drew Lock. The one thing the game settled: on a night the offense spent three quarters going nowhere and lost its starting quarterback on his third dropback, the defense won the game by itself.

Seattle is at Arizona a week from Sunday. Watch who is under center, and watch the red zone.

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_Data via nflverse._