Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7 — Week 2: No Completion Longer Than Nine

Second and six at the Seattle 18, 12 38 left in the first quarter, no score. Drew Lock threw deep right to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and it went 82 yards for a touchdown. It was Seattle's second offensive snap of the game, it was worth about 20 points of win probability, the largest swing either team produced, and it was 73 yards longer than anything Arizona completed all day. Seattle beat the Cardinals 31 to seven on the road on Sunday. It was seven to seven at halftime, and then the Seahawks scored on all four of their second-half possessions. They led for about 40 minutes, were tied for about 20, and never trailed.

Start with the defense, because its numbers are the ones a fan will repeat. 95 passing yards allowed. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that is the fewest, and the next-closest defense gave up a hundred 43. A hundred 65 total yards allowed, also the fewest so far this week, with the Jets next at 208. Arizona's longest completion of the game gained nine yards. By expected points added, the 30 Cardinals pass plays were worth −8.1 — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. Per play that is fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind Carolina, New England and Cleveland. At the rate this pass defense allowed last season, when it ranked eighth, those same 30 plays would have been worth about −3. Both sacks came on third down: Leonard Williams on third and five in the first quarter, Jarran Reed on third and two in the fourth. The takeaway came on third down too. Third and seven from the Arizona 23, 11 39 left in the third quarter, Seattle up 14 to seven, Jacoby Brissett threw deep left for Michael Wilson and Julian Love intercepted it at the Arizona 44. Seattle turned that into a 33-yard field goal.

Third down is where the defense ended drives. It stopped nine of 12, fourth-best of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind the Jets, the Patriots and the Bears. On third downs of one or two yards, Arizona went zero for three. The first of those was the game's opening drive: third and one at the Seattle 48, a run to left tackle, −1, Williams and Byron Murphy on the tackle. Four Cardinals drives were three-and-outs, and Arizona punted seven times. Against the run it was 17 plays, 70 yards and −7.2 expected points, seventh per play so far this week, and 24 of those 70 yards came on the final two snaps of the game with the score 31 to seven. Arizona's one touchdown drive needed a pass interference flag on third and five to stay alive, and then a fourth-and-two throw to Trey McBride from the two on the first snap of the second quarter.

The passing game was efficient more than it was big. 27 pass plays produced +16.1 expected points. Per play, only San Francisco has been better among the 28 teams that have played this week, and in total only San Francisco and Detroit. At the rate Seattle threw last season, when it ranked eighth, those 27 plays would have been worth about +3. The honest version: the 82-yarder was worth 6.9 of that by itself, and the other 25 throws, sacks left out, gained a hundred 53 yards. Seattle's 235 passing yards are tied for thirteenth so far this week. What held up after the long one was third down in the red zone. Third and seven from the Arizona seven, Lock short middle to Smith-Njigba, touchdown. Third and six from the 12, the same throw to the same receiver, touchdown. One sack taken, no interceptions.

The run game carried the volume and gave back value. 40 rush plays, the most of any team so far this week, seven more than Buffalo in second. A hundred 62 yards, third so far this week behind Buffalo and Washington. And −7.1 expected points, seventeenth per play of the 28. Two snaps explain the gap. Second and six at the Arizona 47, tied at seven in the second quarter, Price gained two and Zaven Collins forced the fumble and recovered it: −5.2 expected points. Then fourth and one at the Arizona one with a minute 16 left in the half, still tied, two extra linemen reported as eligible, Emanuel Wilson up the middle, −1. −4.9 expected points and 12 points of win probability. Take those two snaps out and the other 38 runs were worth about +3. 22 of the 40 gained three yards or fewer. The halves were different games: 15 rush plays for 43 yards before the break, 25 for a hundred 19 after it.

The game turned on the second-half kickoff, and it turned on a fumble that went Seattle's way. Rashid Shaheed returned the kick 27 yards, the ball came out at the Seattle 28, Chazz Surratt recovered it at the 26 and ran 37 more yards to the Arizona 37. 10 points of win probability on a play that began as a mistake. An encroachment flag, then Price around right end for 25 to the Arizona seven, then two runs that netted nothing, then the third-and-seven touchdown. 12 more points of win probability. Arizona's third snap after that was Love's interception.

The goal line is the unfinished part. Seattle ran four snaps from the Arizona one: −1, no gain, no gain, and a touchdown on a direct snap to AJ Barner on fourth and one with a minute 15 left. 21 red-zone snaps produced three touchdowns. That last drive did its job anyway: 16 plays that counted, 15 of them runs, starting with 11 25 on the clock and ending with one 15.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Last season Seattle went 14 three. By expected points per play the run defense ranked first in the league, the pass defense eighth, the passing offense eighth and the run game in the bottom seven, and no defense stopped a higher share of third downs. In Week 1 the Seahawks beat New England 13 to 10 at home in a game the defense won with three takeaways, while the offense converted two of 11 third downs, tied for 20-eighth that week, and ran six red-zone snaps without a touchdown. This week the defense looked like last season's. The offense moved: six of 13 on third down, tied for eighth so far this week, and the passing game went from tenth of 32 in Week 1 to second of the 28 teams that have played this week. The run game went from the bottom seven last season to twentieth of 32 last week to seventeenth of the 28 this week, so the carries are up and the value per carry is not. Two games do not settle it, and this one came against a team that went three and 14 a year ago.

Seattle is at Washington next Sunday. Watch what a rush play is worth, and watch the snaps from the one.

That's your Seahawks — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._