Seahawks, Week 2 — What Repeats: Lock Is 16 for 16 Off the Fake

Last week New England put six or fewer defenders in the box on 19 of Seattle's 20 designed runs. This week Arizona did it on three of 40. That is seven and a half percent, the lowest share any run game saw of the 32 teams this week, and across all of last season this offense saw a light box on 54 percent of its designed runs. 35 of the 40 went into a seven-man box. Two went into eight. The average box was nearly seven defenders, against six and a half last year. So the story of Week 1 turned all the way over. And the run game barely noticed: a hundred 62 yards on those 40 designed runs, just over four a carry, twelfth of the 32 teams this week, against 4.2 last week, almost all of it in front of light boxes and about four and a quarter across last season. The 35 runs into seven-man boxes gained a hundred 58 of those yards.

Here is the part that repeats. Drew Lock threw eight passes off a play fake against Arizona and completed all eight, for 71 yards. Last week he threw eight off a play fake and completed all eight. That is 16 for 16 across two games, for a hundred 81 yards. A week ago the fakes came against light boxes. This week they came against full ones, and the result was the same. Seattle called play-action on eight of 27 dropbacks, 30 percent, tenth of the 32 teams this week, down from 41 percent last week and still above the league median of 24 and a half and the 25 percent this offense ran all of last season. His other 18 throws went 11 for a hundred 64, and that is where the big plays lived: none of the three touchdown passes, the 82-yarder included, came off a fake.

The ball itself was the cleanest of the two weeks. 21 of Seattle's 26 throws were charted catchable, 81 percent, sixth of the 32 teams this week against a median of 73, and this offense's figure all last season was 71. None of the 26 was interception-worthy — a ball a defender should have caught — which makes Seattle one of 12 teams at zero this week; last season 19 of 483 throws were, about four percent. Two were contested, eight percent, against nine last year. No throwaways. No sack charted as the quarterback's fault. Seattle's quarterbacks left the pocket on five of 27 dropbacks, the same five of 27 as last week, and 19 percent is almost exactly where this offense lived last season. What did not hold was the hands. Two drops on 21 catchable balls, nine and a half percent, tied with Jacksonville for sixth-highest of the 32 teams this week, after zero drops last week and four percent across all of last season. One went to Rashid Shaheed on third and 12, one to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on second and 10.

The call sheet moved in other places too. Four screens on 27 dropbacks, 15 percent, sixth of the 32 this week against a median of six, after one screen on 27 last week and six percent of dropbacks all last season. Motion on 41 of 81 charted plays, 51 percent, fourteenth and a hair over the median of 50, up from 42 last week and 45 last season. And no no-huddle snaps at all, tied for 20-seventh with five other teams at zero, after two percent last week and seven across last season. Arizona sent five or more pass rushers on seven of 27 dropbacks, 26 percent, 20-second of the 32 this week, when New England sent five or more on 44 percent a week ago.

Now the defense, and one of the numbers that has now moved the same way twice. Seattle showed Arizona a light box on seven of 16 designed runs, 44 percent, sixteenth of the 32 teams this week and right on the median. Last week it was 40 percent. Across all of last season this defense showed a light box on 74 percent of opponents' designed runs. Two different opponents, two weeks at roughly four in 10, against three in four a year ago. Arizona ran those 16 for 63 yards, just under four a carry. The pass rush stayed home: five or more rushers on six of 31 dropbacks, 19 percent, thirtieth of the 32 teams this week, with only Indianapolis and Cincinnati sending five or more on a smaller share. Last season it was 22 percent. 4.2 rushers per dropback, the same as last year. And the charting on Jacoby Brissett's 28 throws shows few balls reaching the catch point in contention. 18 were catchable, 64 percent, against 69 for opponents last season. Only one was contested, four percent, 20-ninth of the 32 teams this week, after 18 percent last week and 13 across last season. One was interception-worthy, and it was the one Julian Love caught. Arizona called play-action on four of 31 dropbacks, 13 percent, tied with Jacksonville for thirtieth of the 32 teams this week, and Brissett completed one of the four for nine yards.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 38: nine catches on 11 targets for a hundred 55 three touchdowns. Lock, 21.4, 19 of 26 for 235, three touchdowns, no interceptions. Emanuel Wilson carried 21 times for 92, 9.2. AJ Barner, 7.4, with the one-yard touchdown run and one catch for eight. Jadarian Price, 13 carries for 52 and a catch for eight. For Arizona, Trey McBride caught eight of 10 targets for 41 and the touchdown, 14.1; Brissett went 17 of 28 for 95, a touchdown and an interception, six and a half; Jeremiyah Love had nine carries for 29 three catches for 16, six.

A word on the yardstick, because the show's name asks a question two games cannot answer. Every comparison above is to last season, a different roster a year ago, not to anything this team has built up this year. That tells you what looks unusual. It does not yet tell you what is true. Last week is one game and it gets called last week, not a season rate. The version of this show that measures Seattle against its own recent weeks starts around Week 4.

So, what repeated. Play-action above last season both weeks, and Lock perfect on it both weeks. The defense's box, about four in 10 light both weeks against three in four last year. Out of the pocket on the same share of dropbacks, and no no-huddle to speak of. What reversed: the box Seattle faced, from 19 light of 20 to three of 40; screens, from one to four; five-plus rushers faced, from 44 percent to 26; drops, from none to two; and the contested balls the defense got, from 18 percent to four. Two games settle nothing. They do tell you which lines to keep watching.

The thread, for a first-time listener. Seattle went 14 three last season. It beat New England 13 to 10 in Week 1 and won 31 to seven at Arizona on Sunday. The notebook now holds three things. 16 for 16 off play-action will not last, and the question is whether the rate does, against a box that is loaded rather than light. The run game gained about the same per carry into loaded boxes this week as into light ones last week, on two small samples. And the defense has stopped showing the light box that defined it last season, two weeks running. Seattle is at Washington next. Watch the box on first down, and watch whether Lock keeps faking into it.

That's your Seahawks — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._