Seahawks 31, Commanders 33 — Week 3: Three Turnovers, No Lead

Second and 15 at the Washington 49, four oh nine left in the fourth quarter, Seattle down 27 to 24. Three snaps earlier a 26-yard completion to Jaxon Smith-Njigba had put the Seahawks in Washington territory; an illegal formation penalty pushed them back to the 49 and an incompletion followed. Sam Darnold threw short middle for AJ Barner, and Kain Medrano intercepted at the 50 and ran it back 50 yards for a touchdown. 29 points of win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — gone on one snap, the biggest swing of the game in either direction. By expected points added, which measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was −8.7. Washington missed the extra point, and Seattle went 68 yards in five plays to make it 33 to 31 with two 51 left. It never got the ball back. Seattle lost 33 to 31 in Washington, did not lead at any point, and by the win probability model never rose above 49 percent.

The turnovers are the story under the score. Three given away, none taken, a margin of −3; of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, only Buffalo and New Orleans were worse. Seattle had lost one turnover in its first two games combined. The first came on the opening snap of Seattle's second possession: first and 10 at its own 20, 11 oh six left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing, Jadarian Price around left end, a fumble forced by Amik Robertson and recovered by Tim Settle at the Seattle 21. −5.3 expected points and 14 points of win probability, the second-biggest swing of the game, and Washington scored four plays later. The second came with 12 10 left in the third quarter, down 17 to 10: Darnold short left for Smith-Njigba, intercepted by Sonny Styles at the Seattle 42, and three plays later Washington led by 14. 20 of Washington's 33 points came off the three.

The passing game opens on yards, because it is the number people will quote: 393, the most of the 28 teams that have played this week and the most of the 92 team-games this season. 46 pass plays — a count that includes sacks, and there were none — four touchdowns on pass plays, one of them Eric Saubert recovering his own fumble in the end zone, and 54 percent successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. By expected points it was +5, thirteenth of the 28 teams so far this week. At the rate Seattle passed over the first two weeks, when it ranked tenth in Week 1 and second in Week 2, those same 46 plays would have been worth about +18. At last season's rate, when it ranked eighth, about +5 — right where it landed. The two interceptions alone cost about 13 and a half. The good version: first and 10 at the Washington 30, 13 26 left, down 24 to 17, Smith-Njigba threw short right to George Holani for 14 yards to the 16. Two plays later, second and five from the 11, Darnold found Smith-Njigba for the touchdown — 13 points of win probability, and after the kick, 24 all.

Inside the 20 the offense was mostly efficient: 12 snaps there, four touchdowns, a rate second only to San Francisco so far this week. The drive it did not finish cost the most. First and goal from the five, two oh seven left in the first half, down 14 to seven: Emanuel Wilson to the two, then three straight incompletions, the last on fourth and two to Barner with one 51 left. −3.1 expected points, eight points of win probability.

The run game is 18 rush plays for 44 yards. That is the second-fewest rushing yards in the 92 team-games this season, ahead of only Green Bay's 17 on Thursday, and −8 expected points is the worst rate per play of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. The fumble accounts for 5.3 of it. 11 of the 18 gained three yards or fewer, and the only run of 10 or more was the first snap of the game, Price for 11. Seattle ran 12 times in the first half and six after it. A week earlier it ran 40 times at Arizona, more than any team in a game this season. At the rate of the first two weeks those 18 plays would have been worth about −2 and a half; at last season's rate, when this run game ranked 20-sixth, about −1.

The run defense did its part. Washington's runs were successful plays 20 percent of the time, the lowest of any offense that has played this week. 30 rush plays, 84 yards, 23 of them gaining three or fewer, and −8.9 expected points — on defense a big negative number is the good direction, and that total is the best of any defense so far this week. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks those 30 plays would have been worth about −6; at last season's rate, when it ranked first in the league, about −4. Sunday beat both.

The third-down defense stopped 10 of 13, third-best of the 28 teams so far this week behind Minnesota and Tampa Bay, and Washington converted one of its first 11. The pass defense gave up 176 net yards on 33 pass plays, two of them sacks, but three touchdown passes and +3.9 expected points; at the rate of the first two weeks those plays would have been worth about −6, and at last season's rate, when it ranked eighth, about −3 and a half. The go-ahead drive started at the Washington 40 because Jason Myers's kickoff landed short of the landing zone, with the score 24 all. On third and 13 from the Washington 37, 10 35 left, the pass fell incomplete — and AJ Finley was flagged for unnecessary roughness, 15 yards and a first down, 10 points of win probability to Washington. On fourth and one at the Seattle 39, Marcus Mariota hit Terry McLaurin for five. The drive ran a little over seven minutes and ended in a 36-yard field goal: 27 to 24 with four 39 left.

After Cooper Kupp's seven-yard touchdown made it 33 to 31, Seattle kicked deep holding all three timeouts. Third and nine at the Washington 34, one 55 left: Rachaad White around right end for 19, Washington's only run of 10 or more all day. Seattle spent its timeouts, and on third and seven at the Seattle 44 Mariota ran right end for nine. The last two Washington third downs of the day were two of its three conversions.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Seattle went 14 three with a passing game eighth by expected points per play, a run game 20-sixth, a pass defense eighth, and a run defense and third-down defense that both ranked first. Week 1 was a 13 to 10 home win over the Patriots on a Wednesday night — 10 points allowed and three turnovers forced, while the offense went two of 11 on third down. Week 2 was a 31 to seven win at Arizona, with a passing game second in the league and 151 total yards allowed, the fewest of any defense that week. Sunday was the first loss, and Seattle is two and one. The run defense held its form. The run game has now been below the league middle in all three weeks — twentieth, twentieth, and last of the 28 teams this week — which is last season's story too. What is new is the ball: one turnover lost in two games, then three on Sunday, turned into 20 points in a game decided by two. Three games do not settle much. They do say where to look first.

Seattle hosts the Chargers on Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._