Seahawks 30, Chargers 23 — Week 4: Thirteen Completions Were Enough

One oh three left in the fourth quarter, Seattle up 30 to 23, the Chargers in the no-huddle at their own 29 after two quick gains. Nwosu got to Justin Herbert at the 20 for a nine-yard sack, the ball came out, and Hall recovered for Seattle. By expected points added, which measures what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was −4.4 for the Chargers. It also took seven points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest swing on any snap from scrimmage in the game. Sam Darnold knelt twice. Seattle won 30 to 23 at home and is three and one. The Chargers are oh and four.

The ball was the story from the first two snaps. Herbert's first throw of the game, short middle for Oronde Gadsden, was intercepted by Thomas at the Chargers' 45. Darnold's first, short left for Emanuel Wilson, was intercepted by Tuipulotu one snap later. After that the ball went Seattle's way: three Chargers giveaways on offense to Seattle's one, a margin of +2, and that count leaves out a dropped punt in the first quarter.

The passing game opens on expected points, because they say what the box score hides. 25 pass plays, a count that includes three sacks, were worth −5.2. That is about minus point two a play, against plus point three over the first three weeks, and it is the first game this season the passing offense has finished below zero. Darnold completed 13 of 22 for a hundred 68 yards, two touchdowns and the interception: nine of 14 before halftime, four of eight after. 44 percent of the pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and third down was three of 12. The charting shows where the ball went wrong. 15 of the 22 throws were charted catchable, 68 percent, seventeenth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 80 percent over the first three weeks. Play-action stayed exactly where it has lived: nine fakes on 26 dropbacks, 35 percent, third-highest this week and the same rate as weeks one through three. The throw that mattered most: third and 16 at the Seattle 29, eight 55 left in the second quarter, up seven to three, deep right to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 28 yards to the Chargers' 43. +3.1 expected points and nine points of win probability, the biggest gain on any Seattle pass or run. Four snaps later Rashid Shaheed ran in from the 28.

The run game finally broke even, and for this offense that is news. 31 rush plays went for a hundred 40 yards, two touchdowns and +0.2 expected points. That is about zero a play, against minus point two over the first three weeks, and the first time in four games the run game has finished above zero. Only about a third of the carries were successful plays, so it came in pieces: Shaheed's 28-yard touchdown around left end, two 15-yarders from Wilson, and Wilson's eight-yard touchdown with 47 seconds left in the half. Wilson carried 21 times for 81 yards. The box helps explain the yards. The Chargers showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 15 of Seattle's 30 designed runs, 50 percent, against 35 percent over the first three weeks, and Seattle gained 4.4 yards per designed run, up from 3.7.

The pass defense was the best unit on the field. 36 Chargers pass plays, four of them sacks, were worth −8.6 expected points to the Chargers, and on defense a big negative number is the good direction. That is about minus point two a play, better than the minus point one this defense allowed over the first three weeks. Two interceptions, a hundred 89 passing yards, one touchdown, and Herbert five of 14 for 36 yards in the first half. Murphy, Jones, Emmanwori and Nwosu had the sacks. The pass rush stopped shrinking. Seattle sent five or more rushers on 10 of 41 dropbacks, 24 percent, 20-first of the 30 charted defenses this week, and up from 20 percent over the first three weeks. Herbert was outside the pocket on 18 of his 40 dropbacks. The crowded catch point did not repeat: three of 32 Chargers throws were charted contested, nine percent, after 20 percent over the first three weeks. Two were charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and Seattle came away with two interceptions.

The run defense is the unit that turned. It came into the week allowing minus point two expected points a play on the ground, the identity of this team, and the Chargers ran 32 times for a hundred 47 yards, a touchdown and +2.8. That is the first time this season an opponent's run game has finished above zero against Seattle, and 44 percent of those runs were successful. The box does not explain it. Seattle showed six or fewer defenders on 10 of 27 Chargers designed runs, 37 percent, close to the 41 percent of the first three weeks, and the Chargers gained 4.1 yards per designed run, against 3.0 allowed over those weeks. Herbert added five scrambles for 37 yards, among them 26 on third and eight with 27 seconds left in the half, which set up a field goal. The worst of it was one fourth-quarter drive, with the Chargers down 30 to 13: Keaton Mitchell for eight and then 20, Omarion Hampton for six on third and three, 11 to the six, and two for the touchdown on third and two.

The turning point was not a pass or a run. Down three to nothing in the first quarter, Seattle went three and out, the third down ending in an intentional grounding call on Darnold. Dickson's punt went 45 yards, Derius Davis dropped it at the Chargers' 25, and O'Toole recovered at the 23. On the next snap Darnold threw short right to Wilson five yards behind the line, and Wilson went 28 yards after the catch for the touchdown. Seven to three, and the Chargers never led again. Jones's interception with a minute 29 left in the half did the same thing: a takeaway, then Darnold to AJ Barner for 12, then Wilson from the eight. Two giveaways, two touchdowns, each within two snaps.

Last week's notebook said to watch the four-man rush snaps, because that is where the ball got lost in Washington. This week's charting does not split Darnold's throws by the size of the rush, so that question stays open. What it does show is that the Chargers sent five or more on nine of 26 dropbacks, 35 percent, less often than the 43 percent Seattle saw over the first three weeks, and that Darnold's one interception came on the first snap of the game. Two older lines held. Play-action is at 35 percent for a fourth straight week. And the defense has now shown a light box on about four in 10 designed runs in every game. What is new is what the run defense gave up behind that same box: three weeks at about three yards a designed run, then 4.1. So the notebook for next week: the run defense, and whether four yards a carry was the Chargers or the start of something.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Wilson, 25.5: 21 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, three catches on four targets for 39 and a touchdown. Darnold, 13.3. Shaheed, 11.8, on two carries for 33 and the touchdown plus a 20-yard catch. Smith-Njigba caught five of six targets for 76, 10.1. Tory Horton's only target was the six-yard touchdown on third and one in the third quarter, 7.1. For the Chargers, Hampton had 12.3 and Herbert 9.6.

That's your Seahawks — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._