Seahawks 29, 49ers 32 — Week 5: Four Turnovers, Five Field Goals

Seattle lost 32-29 to San Francisco at home, and four giveaways cost more than five field goals could win back. The Seahawks turned the ball over four times and took it away twice, a margin of -2, and one of the four went the other way for a touchdown. Jason Myers kicked field goals of 49, 50, 43, 48 and 40 yards. The last chance died at midfield: fourth and 10 with 54 seconds left, down three, Sam Darnold threw short left to Cooper Kupp for 9 yards, and a replay review upheld the spot short of the line. Seattle is 3-2. San Francisco is 5-0.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far. Its 34 pass plays were worth -12.0 EPA, -0.35 a play, against +0.16 a play through Week 4. Only 29.4% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Darnold completed 18 of 29 for 195 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, both to Renardo Green. The first came on the opening drive: third and 10 at the Seattle 11, a snap after Jaden Dugger sacked him, Darnold threw short right for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Green intercepted at the 18. San Francisco scored on that drive. The second, deep left for Elijah Arroyo early in the third with Seattle down 21-13, was worth -5.1 EPA. Smith-Njigba carried what worked: 5 catches on 8 targets for 102 yards, a 38-yarder out from the Seattle 8 late in the first, and the 16-yard touchdown on third and 3 that made it 23-21.

The charting says the ball left Darnold's hand cleaner than the result. 24 of his 29 throws were catchable, 82.8%, against 78.3% through Week 4, and his receivers dropped 4 of them, 16.7%, after the team's 5 drops on 92 catchable balls through Week 4. Two throws were charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 6.9%, after 2 in his first 69. The sacks were the bigger problem. The charters put 5 sacks on Darnold himself, 14.3% of 35 dropbacks, after 3 on 75 dropbacks through Week 4, and San Francisco sent five or more rushers on only 10 of those 35, 28.6%, against the 40.9% Seattle saw through Week 4.

The run game was Muffed too, and the success rate tells it: 26.9% of 26 rush plays were successful, worth -13.5 EPA, -0.52 a play against -0.15 through Week 4. Two fumbles did much of the damage. Up 10-7 midway through the second, first and 10 at his own 9, Emanuel Wilson ran right end for 2 yards before Fred Warner forced the ball out; Malik Mustapha recovered at the 12, and Christian McCaffrey ran 11 yards for a touchdown on the next snap. That fumble was worth -5.1 EPA, and George Holani's at the end of the half -6.9. Wilson finished with 61 yards on 20 carries and the 2-yard touchdown that tied it 7-7. The 25 designed runs gained 84 yards, after 417 on 107 through Week 4. San Francisco showed six or fewer in the box on 8 of them, 32%, fewer light boxes than the 39.3% Seattle saw through Week 4.

The pass defense held close to its own standard and made the play that put Seattle in front. San Francisco was successful on 40.6% of its 32 pass plays, worth -3.1 EPA, -0.10 a play, against -0.13 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction. Brock Purdy completed 19 of 29 for 189 yards and two touchdowns, and Seattle sacked him three times, twice by Byron Murphy II and once by Ernest Jones. With 7:24 left in the third, Seattle down 21-16, Purdy threw short left on third and 7 for Jacob Cowing; Nehemiah Pritchett intercepted at the San Francisco 43 and returned it 20 yards to the 23. That snap was worth -5.1 EPA to the 49ers and 15.4 points of win probability, and Smith-Njigba's touchdown followed. Purdy's throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, on 7 of 29, 24.1%, against 16.9% allowed through Week 4. The fourth quarter gave it back: Mike Evans caught 23 yards on third and 10 and 28 on second and 21, Brandin Cooks scored from the 7, and Evans caught the two-point throw for 29-26.

The run defense answered last week's question only halfway. San Francisco's 22 rush plays were worth -4.5 EPA, -0.20 a play, against -0.15 allowed through Week 4, better than usual. One snap carries most of that. With 5:06 left in the third, Seattle up 23-21, Drake Thomas forced Deebo Samuel Sr. to fumble at the San Francisco 35 and Josh Jobe recovered; the play was worth -5.2 EPA to San Francisco, more than the unit's whole total, and Myers kicked a 48-yarder for 26-21. Samuel was injured on the play. Otherwise 50% of the 49ers' runs were successful. Seattle played light, six or fewer in the box on 15 of 20 designed runs, 75%, against 39.6% through Week 4, and those runs gained 90 yards. McCaffrey had 68 on 11 carries.

The game turned with 18 seconds left in the first half. Seattle trailed 14-13 and had first and 10 at its own 4. Holani ran left guard, Gracen Halton hit him for a 4-yard loss, the ball came loose, and Halton recovered it in the end zone. That snap was worth -6.9 EPA and 30.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game, and it made the halftime score 21-13. Seattle went 3 of 12 on third down and scored 2 touchdowns on 7 red-zone snaps. Tied 29-29 after Keion White sacked Darnold on third and 5 at the San Francisco 17, Seattle settled for Myers' 40-yarder, and Eddy Pineiro's 44-yarder with 2:00 left decided it.

The scheme moved off its fakes. Play-action fell to 9 of 35 dropbacks, 25.7%, from 34.6% through Week 4, though it worked when it came: Darnold went 5 of 7 for 85 yards on play-action throws and 13 of 22 for 110 on the rest. Screens rose to 5, 14.3%, from 10.2%, and motion edged up to 48.1% from 44.8%. Darnold was out of the pocket on 13 of 35 dropbacks.

Last week's notebook asked whether the yards the Chargers found on designed runs were one afternoon or the start of something. By EPA the run defense came back to its own side of the line, but half of San Francisco's runs worked, and the fumble did the rest. That question stays open. Special teams did hand Seattle its first touchdown: Jacob Cowing muffed Michael Dickson's punt in the first quarter, Eric Saubert recovered at the San Francisco 24, and Wilson ran in from the 2 to finish that drive. The one to watch next: the sacks, 5 charted on Darnold himself against 3 in his first four weeks, and whether the ball security that cost two fumbles on the ground holds.

That's your Seahawks, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._