Seahawks 14, Broncos 17 — Week 6: Tied at 0:07, Lost on Two Picks

Seattle lost 17-14 to Denver in overtime on Thursday night, and three giveaways undid an offense that never went three-and-out. The Seahawks turned the ball over three times and took it away zero, a margin of -3. They trailed 14-3 at halftime, came back with George Holani's touchdown, a two-point throw to Rashid Shaheed and Jason Myers's 34-yard field goal with 7 seconds left, then lost on Wil Lutz's 53-yarder after Sam Darnold's second interception. Seattle is 3-3.

The passing game moved the ball and gave it back, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, keeps the score. Its 54 pass plays were worth -7.7 EPA, -0.14 a play against +0.05 through Week 5, and 37% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Darnold completed 27 of 51 for 278 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, and was sacked five times. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards: 15 on third and 11 early in the third, 7 on fourth and 4 at the Denver 39 down 14-3, +3.2 EPA, and 32 on second and 16 with 2:42 left. Shaheed caught 5 for 66, including a 42-yarder deep right to the Denver 27 in the third, +3.5 EPA, on a drive that ended with Myers hitting the right upright from 47. Cooper Kupp caught 5 of 10 targets for 50.

The charting says the ball, not the protection, was the problem. Only 30 of Darnold's 49 throws were catchable, 61.2%, against his own 79.6% through Week 5, and 3 were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 6.1%, after 4 in 98. Nine were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 18.4% against 19.4%, and his receivers dropped 2. Denver sent five or more rushers on 19 of 56 dropbacks, 33.9%, against the 38.3% Seattle saw through Week 5.

The run game had its best night against its own standard, and EPA per play shows by how much: 26 rush plays worth -0.4 EPA, -0.02 a play, against -0.22 through Week 5. They gained 113 yards with a touchdown, and 42.3% succeeded. Emanuel Wilson ran 14 times for 52, Velus Jones Jr. 4 for 20 and Holani 5 for 20. Denver played light, six or fewer in the box on 13 of 24 designed runs, 54.2%, against 37.9% through Week 5, and those runs gained 94 yards. The run that kept the comeback alive was Darnold's: down 14-3 with 7:06 left, third and 10 at the Denver 32, he scrambled left and got out of bounds at the 14, 18 yards and +2.2 EPA. Two snaps later Holani ran 13 yards to the 1, then scored from there. The cost came before halftime. Down 14-3 with 2:34 left, second and 10 at the Denver 35, Shaheed ran left end and Nik Bonitto forced a fumble that Justin Strnad recovered, -4.1 EPA. Elijah Arroyo was injured on the play.

The pass defense was the best unit on the field, and the success rate allowed tells it: only 27.6% of Denver's 29 pass plays succeeded. They were worth -6.1 EPA, -0.21 a play, against -0.12 allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. Bo Nix completed 17 of 27 for 107 yards and no touchdowns. Ernest Jones and Nick Emmanwori sacked him in the fourth, and Emmanwori's on third and 10 with 4:15 left, down 14-11, cost Denver 10 yards and 9.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The charting says Seattle got no chances to take it away: no interception-worthy throws, against 5.2% allowed through Week 5, and 18 of 27 catchable, 66.7%, against 70.6%. Seattle sent five or more on 7 of 30 dropbacks, 23.3%, near its 21.3%. Penalties gave some of it back: Byron Murphy II's face mask turned an 8-yard catch on third and 10 into a first down, +2.6 EPA, and Devon Witherspoon's pass interference put the ball at the 1 two plays before the second touchdown.

The run defense gave up its two touchdowns and little else, and total EPA allowed shows it: Denver's 27 rush plays were worth -2.0 EPA, -0.07 a play, against -0.16 allowed through Week 5, short of Seattle's usual standard; here, too, negative is good. Only 29.6% succeeded, for 75 yards. Seattle played light, six or fewer in the box on 23 of 26 designed runs, 88.5%, against 45.7% through Week 5, and those runs gained 72 yards. J.K. Dobbins ran 17 times for 41. Tyrice Knight stopped Nix at the 4 on first and goal, though Dobbins scored on the next snap, and stopped him for no gain on third and 2 at the Seattle 35 in overtime, -1.9 EPA, which brought Lutz on. The one run that hurt was Tyler Badie's 6 yards on fourth and 3 in the first quarter, which kept Denver's opening touchdown drive alive.

The game turned with 1:31 left in regulation. Seattle trailed 14-11 and had third and 1 at the Denver 39, no huddle, after Smith-Njigba's 32-yard catch. Darnold threw short left for Tory Horton, and Kris Abrams-Draine intercepted at the 31. That snap was worth -3.8 EPA and 35.2 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Seattle spent two timeouts, held Denver to a punt, and went again from its own 46 with 57 seconds left: Shaheed for 10 on third and 6, Kupp for 17 to the Denver 23, Smith-Njigba for 7, and Myers from 34. In overtime Smith-Njigba converted third and 3, and on the next third down, third and 7 at the Seattle 28, Darnold threw for Shaheed and Ja'Quan McMillian intercepted. Seattle converted 7 of 17 third downs and scored 1 touchdown on 3 red-zone snaps. 12 drives produced a touchdown, two field goals and three turnovers.

The scheme moved off the fake. Play-action fell to 7 of 56 dropbacks, 12.5%, from 32.7% through Week 5, and it did not work when it came: Darnold went 2 of 6 for 14 yards off it, after 21 of 30 for 307 across his first five weeks, and 25 of 43 for 264 without it. Run-pass options rose to 7, 8.8% of snaps, from 2.7%. Motion dipped to 41% of charted plays from 45.4%, and no-huddle rose to 6.2% from 1.4%. Darnold left the pocket on 7 of 56 dropbacks.

Last week's notebook asked about the sacks on Darnold himself and about ball security. The first answer was yes: Denver sacked him five times, but the charters put none of them on Darnold, after 8 on 110 dropbacks through Week 5. The second was no: a lost fumble and two interceptions, and all three ended drives in Denver territory or overtime. The one to watch next: whether Darnold's catchable rate, 61.2% against 79.6%, comes back, and whether a run game that played at -0.02 a play against -0.22 through Week 5 keeps the offense ahead of the chains.

That's your Seahawks, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._