Seahawks 17, Bears 34 — Week 8: 1 of 11 on Third Down

Seattle lost 34-17 to Chicago at Lumen Field on Monday night and fell to 4-4. Its three earlier losses came by 2, 3 and 3 points; this one came by 17, and the 34 points were the most the Seahawks have allowed this season. The offense converted 1 of 11 third downs, its fewest this season. 11 drives produced two touchdowns, a field goal, an interception, a turnover on downs and four three-and-outs, and a 33-yard field goal was blocked.

The passing game fell well short of its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how far: 37 pass plays worth -7.6, -0.20 a play against +0.05 through Week 7. Only 35.1% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Sam Darnold completed 17 of 34 for 188 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked three times. The best of it came down 13-3 with 37 seconds left in the half: third and 10 at the Chicago 43, Darnold went deep left to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the touchdown, +5.4 EPA and 14.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Jason Myers missed the extra point wide left. Smith-Njigba finished with 6 catches on 11 targets for 118 yards.

The run game rarely kept Seattle on schedule, and success rate shows it: 4 of 19 rush plays gained what the situation asked for, 21.1%, the lowest share of any Seattle game this season. EPA had them at -2.8, -0.15 a play, close to the -0.16 they had managed through Week 7, for 81 yards. Jadarian Price, with his first carries since Week 3, ran 10 times for 29 yards, and Zach Charbonnet, with his first carries of the season, ran 6 times for 23. The first trip inside the 20 showed the cost: first and goal at the 9, Charbonnet gained nothing, a short pass to him lost 6, and Myers kicked a 27-yarder.

The pass defense was Muffed, and total EPA allowed says by how much: Chicago's 35 pass plays were worth +5.4, +0.15 a play against -0.14 allowed through Week 7, Seattle's worst game this season by that measure. On defense a positive number is bad. 54.3% of those plays succeeded, after 38.7% allowed through Week 7. Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 for 247 yards and a touchdown without an interception. Rome Odunze caught 4 of 6 targets for 87 yards, every catch 18 yards or longer, and Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III caught 7 each. The takeaway came down 20-9 early in the fourth: Mike Morris sacked Williams for 10, and on third and 20 at the Chicago 13, DeMarcus Lawrence forced Loveland's fumble after an 8-yard catch and recovered it at the 25, -2.8 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability for Chicago.

The run defense gave up the touchdowns, and the red zone is where: Chicago got inside the Seattle 20 four times and scored four touchdowns, three of them D'Andre Swift runs from the 1, the 5 and the 5. Its 34 rush plays were worth +6.7 EPA, +0.20 a play against -0.12 allowed through Week 7, the worst this season; here, too, positive is bad. Half of them succeeded, after 33.7% through Week 7. Swift needed 27 carries for 69 yards, and his most valuable came on Chicago's 17-play, 80-yard opening drive: fourth and 1 at the Chicago 44, 5 yards, +2.5 EPA.

The game turned right after Seattle got within three. Tory Horton's two-point catch made it 20-17 with 11:46 left, and Morris's unnecessary-roughness penalty on the kickoff gave Chicago the ball at its own 44. A delay of game turned third and 4 into third and 9 at the Seattle 44, and Kalif Raymond, a receiver, ran 39 yards around right end to the 5, +4.0 EPA and 10.1 points of win probability. Swift scored on the next snap. On Seattle's next possession, third and 7 at its own 25, Darnold threw short over the middle for AJ Barner, and defensive tackle James Lynch intercepted at the 22 and returned it to the 6, -5.4 EPA. Swift ran four straight times from there and scored on the last, from the 5, for 34-17.

Last week's notebook asked about the red zone, after 9 snaps inside the Kansas City 20 produced no touchdowns. This week 11 red-zone snaps produced one, Cooper Kupp's 7-yard catch with 11:51 left. The other three trips ended in Myers's 27-yarder, a 33-yarder Austin Booker blocked after an offensive pass interference on Smith-Njigba took a catch at the 1 off the board, and a turnover on downs at the 7 with 2:21 left. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed -0.12 a play through Week 7 gets back to it when Arizona visits in Week 9, after holding the Cardinals to 70 yards on 17 rush plays in Week 2.

That's your Seahawks, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Seahawks on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._