49ers 32, Seahawks 29 — Week 5: Four Forced Turnovers, Now 5-0

San Francisco beat Seattle 32-29 on the road to go 5-0, and the defense won it. The 49ers took the ball away four times and gave it away twice, a margin of +2, and one of the four was a touchdown: Gracen Halton's recovery in the Seattle end zone with 18 seconds left in the half. The offense ran below its own season on every unit line. It still found the go-ahead points late: tied 29-29, Christian McCaffrey ran for 8 and 13 yards, and Eddy Pineiro kicked a 44-yard field goal with 2:00 left. Then, on fourth and 10 at midfield with 54 seconds left, Malik Mustapha pushed Cooper Kupp out after 9 yards, short of the line, and a replay review upheld it.

The passing game fell off its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows how far. Its 32 pass plays were worth -3.1 EPA, -0.10 a play, against +0.53 a play through Week 4. Of those, 40.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Brock Purdy completed 19 of 29 for 189 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked three times. Mike Evans caught 7 of 10 targets for 113 yards and carried the drive that put San Francisco ahead. Down 26-21 early in the fourth, third and 10 at the Seattle 49, Purdy threw deep middle to Evans for 23 yards, +3.2 EPA and 15.5 points of win probability. An intentional grounding made it second and 21; Purdy went deep right to Evans for 28 to the 9. Brandin Cooks caught the 7-yard touchdown and Evans the two-point throw for 29-26.

The charting says the throws were harder than usual. 19 of Purdy's 29 were catchable, 65.5%, against 76.8% through Week 4. Seven were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 24.1%, against 8.9%. The charters put two sacks on Purdy himself, after none through Week 4. Seattle did not need extra rushers to get there, sending five or more on 7 of 34 dropbacks, 20.6%, against the 32.8% this offense saw through Week 4.

The run game was efficient and still finished in the red, and the success rate explains why: 50% of 22 rush plays were successful, worth -4.5 EPA, -0.20 a play against +0.05 through Week 4. One snap did most of the damage. With 5:06 left in the third, down 23-21, first and 10 at his own 35, Deebo Samuel Sr. ran left end for no gain and Drake Thomas forced a fumble that Josh Jobe recovered. That was -5.2 EPA, more than the unit's whole total, and Samuel was injured on the play. McCaffrey ran 11 times for 68 yards, including the 11-yard touchdown on the snap after Mustapha's fumble recovery. Seattle played light against the run, six or fewer in the box on 15 of 20 designed runs, 75%, against 54% through Week 4, and those runs gained 90 yards.

The pass defense was Smashed, and the EPA allowed is the proof. Seattle's 34 pass plays were worth -12.0 EPA, -0.35 a play, against +0.06 allowed through Week 4; on defense a big negative number is the good direction. Only 29.4% were successful. Renardo Green had both interceptions. On Seattle's opening drive, third and 10 at the Seattle 11, Sam Darnold threw short right for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Green intercepted at the 18; Purdy's 2-yard touchdown to Evans finished the drive, 7-0. Green's second, on a deep throw for Elijah Arroyo early in the third, was worth -5.1 EPA. Five different players sacked Darnold: Jaden Dugger, Sebastian Valdez, Halton, Osa Odighizuwa and Keion White, whose third-down sack at the San Francisco 17 with 7:41 left held Seattle to a tying field goal. Two of Darnold's throws were charted interception-worthy, 6.9%, against 2.1% for opponents through Week 4, and his receivers dropped 4 catchable balls. San Francisco sent five or more on 10 of 35 dropbacks, 28.6%, close to its 31.2% through Week 4. Smith-Njigba still caught 5 for 102 and a touchdown.

The run defense was Smashed by success rate: Seattle succeeded on 26.9% of its 26 rush plays, worth -13.5 EPA, -0.52 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 4. Up 10-7 midway through the second, Seattle had first and 10 at its own 9. Emanuel Wilson ran right end for 2 yards, Fred Warner forced the fumble, and Mustapha recovered at the 12 and carried it to the 11. That snap was worth -5.1 EPA to Seattle and 19.6 points of win probability, and McCaffrey scored on the next play for 14-10. San Francisco played heavier boxes, six or fewer on 8 of 25 designed runs, 32%, against 43.1% through Week 4, and those 25 runs gained 84 yards. Wilson finished with 61 on 20 carries.

The game turned with 18 seconds left in the half. Up 14-13, the defense had Seattle pinned at its own 4. George Holani ran left guard, Halton hit him for a 4-yard loss, the ball came loose and Halton recovered it in the end zone. That was -6.9 EPA for Seattle and 30.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game, and it made the half 21-13. The 49ers' own mistakes kept Seattle alive. Jacob Cowing muffed a punt in the first quarter, recovered at the San Francisco 24, and Seattle tied it on that drive. On third and 7 in the third, Purdy's throw for Cowing was intercepted by Nehemiah Pritchett and returned to the 23. San Francisco converted 4 of 12 third downs and scored 3 touchdowns on 7 red-zone snaps; the defense stopped 9 of Seattle's 12.

The scheme brought the fakes back and cut the motion. Play-action came on 10 of 34 dropbacks, 29.4%, against 23.8% through Week 4, but it was short work: 6 of 9 for 46 yards on play-action throws, 13 of 20 for 143 on the rest. Pre-snap motion fell to 41 of 78 charted plays, 52.6%, from 64.4%. Screens rose slightly to 4 of 34 dropbacks, 11.8%, from 9.8%, and there were no run-pass options. Purdy left the pocket 10 times.

Last week's notebook asked whether the play-action would come back. It did, above this offense's rate through Week 4, though the fakes bought little yardage. The new line is the contested throws, 24.1% against 8.9% through Week 4, on a day Purdy's catchable rate also fell. The one to watch next: whether Purdy's throws stop ending in traffic, and whether defenses keep giving McCaffrey light boxes after Seattle showed one on three of every four runs.

That's your 49ers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the 49ers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._